The 'Skipped--Step' Theory

 Several months ago, I wrote of the evolving view that civil conflict/civil war was no longer impossible.  After much thought, I will lay out what I call the 'skipped-step' theory and how it relates to the mess today.

As a kid, I was amused by the introduction one day of this mythical 'clock', which related in some way to suggest that nuclear war was minutes away.  The news guy would explain this update, and how the nuclear clock had moved forward and was now only 30 seconds away from midnight.  Every year.....some group would step up and give the new adjustment.

Somewhere in the mid-80s, I can remember this topic coming up and finally some journalist had laid out that this was mostly a fictional clock, and it depended on the guys in the room and they perceived things.  In simple terms....it was a fake clock.  I just hadn't grasp that until that particular moment.

Looking at the way things work today....there is a new clock and it relates to civil conflict.  Twenty years ago, I would have set the clock at 00:01....meaning we were 23 hours and 59 minutes away from civil conflict.  

Viewing today's events and particular things from the past five years....I'd probably set the clock now at 22:45....meaning we are just 1 hour and 15 minutes away from civil conflict. 

But we now have something that I'd call a 'skipped-step' and the clock can never advance any further. 

Yes, we are in differing view.  Yes, we have civil behavior that is unacceptable.  Yes, political situations are now toxic.  Yes, most all squares are filled to indicate two groups can't live together.  But the 'skipped-step' comes into play.

Sedition, succession, second amendment chatter, etc.....are now all part of the 'skipped-step'.

In the coming weeks....the term 'domestic terrorism' will be uttered a lot by Republicans and Democrats....executive orders will be issued by President Biden, and the civil conflict will be avoided.

You will wake up to find that buying a new pistol is nearly impossible because someone put your name on a potential list for domestic terrorism.  

You'd like to have your name removed.  You find that lawyers are now very difficult to hire on this process because the threat of them being disbarred is now a weekly issue that pops up.

You go on a trip and stop at a airport bar to chat with some stranger for the four hour wait.  Some federal cop stops you later in the airport....to do a one-hour screening of a potential threat discussion.  He lets you go.  But you find now that the airline that you had the reservation with....because of info he put in the system.....won't allow the reservation to occur.  In simple terms, you don't fly with them.  Maybe it's enough on the blacklist that you can't fly with any airline, and end up riding a bus back home.

You go on a trip via car and stay at a hotel in a hotel in Dayton.  You sip a beer at a bar and discuss your frustration with someone who is equally frustrated politically....talking about succession.  An hour after the talk (near midnight), a federal cop arrives at your hotel door, and is acting on some 'tip'.  A 30-minute interview occurs.  He's OK with your explanation, and leaves.  Twenty minutes later....the hotel manager arrives and says you have to go.  Yes, at 1:30 AM....you've just been tossed out and black-listed. 

You now find that your views on Facebook and Twitter are being used for a federal database.  Maybe you aren't a true domestic terrorist, but it's bad enough to suggest that you might be a third-level (marginal threat) character.  This affects your gun-ownership, your acceptance into some federal/state job, or your application for a passport.

At some point....national parks will have a banned-list.  

All of this....done in a matter of a year or two, and no real political solution because no one will talk about this.

Your reaction?  You question everyone around you because they might turn you in.  You avoid social media entirely.  You lost respect for professional sports because they've been converted into this whole mess.  You lost your respect for law enforcement.  You don't respect your local prosecutor or the judges in your state.

Your soon-to-be ex-husband or soon-to-be ex-wife uses such fake info....to convey a threat that they might call the federal task force.  So you have to cooperate with them in a way that you would not have done a year prior.

The list goes on and on....we missed the step that would have taken us to civil war or civil conflict....only by suggesting you might be a domestic terrorist and this label gets you on hundreds of banned lists.  

Going off to a third-party to dump the Republicans?  Fine....but without one-hundred percent of Republicans dumping the party.....this new creation party will never threaten the system.  Most all Senators and House members will figure out this game.  No one can do much of anything....because of the threat of labeling themselves as domestic terrorists.  

The civil conflict clock I described?  Yep, it's stuck at 22:45 and will not advance another step.  

A  year from now, you will meet me in a bar, and quietly note that you have six neighbors or friends who are on banned lists of some type.  You might even admit your son/daughter got on a university potential list of being banned if they conduct themselves in any suggestive way.  Your wife had some chat in a beauty saloon that earned a 10 PM visit by a federal agent one night....so she can't legally own a gun because of comments she said (while you still have the right).

You'll ask me how we got this way, and it basically leads through a world that is a fraudulent construction, and a Constitution that seems to have been beaten badly.  Maybe you feel like it's Nazi Germany in 1933....but you won't suggest that in our little talk at the bar.  It's a careful discussion, because other folks at the bar might turn us in.  So we converse in light-hearted chatter about Chicago Bears, snow coming early this year, and frustration over illusions that seem to now to exist.

Society?  It's now locked into this Twilight-Zone-like situation.  We can't agree on mass immigration, taxes, resolving police issues, or dumping incompetent politicians.  But we can't talk about this without getting deeper into a mess.

Yeah, it's a moment that you need five shots of some strong whiskey because we are pretty screwed now.  In some way, maybe it's just fantastic that we avoided civil conflict or civil war.  That's where you pour the second round of five shots.  It'll dull your pain.  

Conspiracy Theories: JFK

 Another one of my discussions on conspiracy theories.

Facts:

1.  JFK was shot on 22 November 1963.

2.  Oswald, the accused shooter was killed on 24 November 1963, by Jack Ruby (local mafia character in Dallas).  

3.  Warren Commission finishes project on 24 September 1964....one shooter-one magic bullet theory is the end-result.

I have no doubt that JFK was shot by Oswald on the 24th.  But once you enter the magic-bullet idea into the mix, and ask this type of situation to be conducted a hundred times....the odds are that it'll only happen one single time of the hundred.  At that point, the theory is questionable. So enters the more likely scenario of a second-shooter.  

Add to this....the long sorted story of Oswald, which just seems fairly unbelievable.  Then you add in some patriotic character like Jack Ruby who is absolutely a guy that the mafia can count upon.

Was the mafia connected into this?  I think they were called on the 23rd and asked to clean up a particular messy situation because Oswald didn't exit the building in the correct direction and didn't get shot by the pre-planned police.  Beyond that....I doubt if the mafia really knew anything going on. 

For years after this Ruby mission, I think a dozen-odd members of the mafia knew bits of the story, and just sat there shaking their head over how they got taken into this whole mess.  

I would add this comment....if you'd said for this to be arranged via the mafia....there's a hundred other ways they would have accomplished this without shooting drama business being involved.

As for who might have been the planning group?  It's just odd....the one guy that Kennedy absolutely fired from the CIA (28 November 1961)...Dulles....is one of the seven people put on the Warren Commission.  

The other 500-odd conspiracy 'links'?  Well....they make for an interesting conversation but most all just lead in circles with no additional facts in the mix.  

The Basic Problem of Student College-Loan Forgiveness

 Basically, you are asking me to financially forgive some supposedly highly gifted intellectual dumbass, who borrowed way more money than his degree ever was worth, and he can't possibly find a job that pays at the level to cover the $80k to $120k 'pit' that he or she seems to have fallen down into.

If this were your son 'Marvin' who wrecked his 7-year old Toyota and needed $8k....maybe that would make sense until Marvin admitted he was pretty wasted at the time, and the brake-light had been on for two weeks.

If this were your daughter 'Tiffney'.....who accidentally set her trailer on fire last weekend, and needed you to compensate her with $22k for a new trailer....it'd make sense to help her out.  Course, when you found out that she was hyped-up on meth, and intentionally set the mattress on fire....would you pull the money from savings to help her?

If this were your nephew 'Woody' who wanted $15k for a 'worm-farm' enterprise....you'd ask some questions and discover that Woody doesn't have a business plan or any idea how the farm would work.  Your odds of loaning him the money?

So I'm looking at this Biden project and asking three key questions:

1.  If these idiots were stupid enough to borrow $80k for a worthless degree....what's that say about their level of common sense, and the odds they'd go and borrow $150k somewhere else in the future.....to potentially fail on that loan?  This sounds like the idiot bankers and insurance idiots of 2008, who were too supid to run their business operation.  

2.  If I made it to a bachelor's degree, without borrowing a nickel....what's it say about these idiots who borrowed $90k?  What did I do wrong?

3.  Finally, if we have that many worthless degrees out there....shouldn't there be a plan to dismantle the whole public college platform and dissolve about forty-percent of the programs that exist?  Just tell the kid that two years of HVAC studies at a junior college gets the same level of pay as a worthless degree at a four-year college.  

My chief problem here now?  I have to sit there and listen to 100 different idiot senators who appear to be even more stupid than the kid who got into $100k of debt with a degree in gender-studies and no real job prospect except running some department in Pennys or Wal-Mart.  

The Chief Problem of the Biden Amnesty for 11-to-22 Million Illegals

 Right now, across the US.....somewhere between 11 and 22 million illegals exist in the nation.  Texas, California, Illinois, NY, NJ and Florida are figured to have 59-percent (2014 numbers) of the total number.  So you can figure that the other 45 states have only 40 percent.  

The PEW folks figured back in 2017.....from the top twenty urbanized areas of the US....they held close to 10.7 million in illegals.  

The two states at the bottom?  Montana and Vermont....figured to be around 3 to 4 thousand in each state.

So once the paperwork is signed, and Congress passes the agenda....the amnesty is then on the table, and these flip from illegal to legal folks.

Will their jobs as illegals then go to normal pay/normal benefits?  No.  I don't think a single shop or business will deal with them from that point on.  

New illegals likely to wander in by 2022?  Yes.  I would take a guess that between two and three million illegals will arrive after this amnesty deal is done, and within five years....another five million will arrive.

You see...these business fronts operate with one simple rule....cheapest employee possible.  If Biden removes that option....you simply go looking for the next guy, who is illegally in the US.

Now, you can ask yourself....in the middle of a Covid-19 situation, massive unemployment in several states....would it be wise to add 10-million legal folks onto the situation?  Most PhD guys would stand there and just grin....if there are not jobs for folks already in the middle of the mess....what idiot would go and add more to this?

Will these newly blessed amnesty folks go and ask for unemployment compensation?  Maybe, but in most states.....unless you can show legal work already (they can't), then you don't get a 'deal'.

There's going to be a fair mess sitting there by the end of 2021, and probably laying there for three or four years....before Congress can admit that this made a huge chaotic thing that can't be resolved.  

But lets add one single 'cherry' to this game.  If you have a dozen-million illegals-flipped-to-legals in the top twenty urbanized areas of the US....where exactly will new migrants (the new illegals) position themselves in 2021/2022?  

Well....the top twenty urbanized areas of the US....naturally.  If these areas already had problems?  Don't worry....just another layer on top of the original situation.  

I doubt if Biden himself understands any of this, and probably the majority of his handlers are the same way.  They've simply convinced themselves of some noble deed accomplished.  

Observations

 1.  It's nothing to laugh about, but in the last day or two....DC security folks announced that 43 National Guards people sent for security over the inauguration business....have Covid-19 and are on quarantine.  

Of the 7,000 on duty.....you can figure by Wednesday....at least another forty will show positive, and probably a hundred will be performing duty with symptoms (to show positive by Friday).  Passing it along to the couple hundred-thousand there for the inauguration?  Oh, one could probably estimate that a couple thousand visitors will get it....then pass it along to folks at home by Saturday and Sunday of next week.  

By the time the Nat'l Guard gets dismissed?  You can figure that three-hundred will be Covid-19 positive, and as they act as guards in the capital building....they will sneeze and pass it along to hundreds of capital building residents (Senators and Congressmen).

2.  There is a discussion going on in NY City....to have a $3 'tax' on delivered goods.  If you ordered $5 of screws and bolts via some on-line deal....you'd pay the sales tax, then some delivery tax.  

As you can imagine....it's not going over well.

3.  Lets say you had some big event (like a Super Bowl or inauguration), with 100,000 people arriving in some city....in the middle of a epidemic.  Folks stay around at hotels and restaurants for three days, and pass Covid-19 around themselves.  Two weeks later....they've been able to spread the virus among 250,000 (while on the road, traveling via airports, staying at other hotels going/returning, and sipping beers at various pubs along the way).  

Do you feel guilty of anything?

4.  Some people suggest that 20-percent of people who'd typically vote for Republican candidates....won't do so in 2022's mid-term.  

I would go to suggest that in a minimum of twenty states....the number is actually closer to 75-percent who won't vote for Republican candidates.  If the trend were to continue through 2024?  The party is mostly finished.

5.  On making incitement a crime?  Well....just suggesting via some Baptist idiot that you might be going to hell for your behavior....might be enough to identify that as incitement.  

Professional wrestling?  Pure incitement.  

Announcing cancellation to a flight after waiting six hours....pure incitement.

Having police to arrive on a raid?  Pure incitement.

6.  Growing number of studies over Covid-19 suggest that memory loss and cognitive decline are part of the effects.  A guy or gal getting it two or three times in the next decade (in their twenties)?  They probably aren't going to be producing much of anything in their forties.

7.  Anything that is 'free'.....probably on the scale of actual value and dependability....is less than zero.  (Facebook, Twitter, email services, etc).

Visitor Logs Story

Part of the incoming Biden arrival changes include the rule that all White House visitor logs will be available....whenever someone asks.

Why?

Well....VTC type meetings are more or less the norm, so there's no need for anyone to be standing or visiting in the White House.  So the logs....frankly....are a juvenile type game to continue playing.  

Journalists all hyped up and positive about the open logs?  They really haven't thought through the whole routine yet.   

This Biden $15 An Hour Minimum Wage Chatter

 What started yesterday is this talk from the Biden-camp that in the first month or two....he'll have a package to send to the House.....to redraw the minimum wage in the US.....to $15 (currently at 7.25 on the national scale).

The likely path?  A lot was left out of this story.  I suspect you'd see a $2 rise in 2021, with a second rise in 2022, and the final rise by the end of 2023.  

So you take the Burger King whopper XL menu and throw it up on the board.  $9.49 for the burger, fries and Coke.

You can go and figure that with the $15 standard....the menu has to go up to $11.99.  But you aren't really finished, because there's the sales tax increase (9.5-percent there in Nashville).   So between 25 to 30 cents will be added onto the bill....making it fairly close to $12.30.  

Taking your spouse, and two kids out?  Even if the kids go for the regular men items....the man-hour cost went up, and the local sales tax with it.....it's near $45.  Would you pay that?

In most locations....sticker-shock would occur.   I would imagine around one-third of customers would start to consider their options.  

But why just limit your vision with fast-food?  Over at your Piggly-Wiggly....probably one-third of the 'help' are making absolute minimum-wage as a start-up job.  The folks with five years?  They are probably up around $10 to $12.  You would probably notice with sales tax included....your weekly $100 cost at the grocery is going by spring of 2022 to around $112.  

Will people just accept the trend and higher cost?  Or will they step back and limit their purchases for a year or two....trying to rectify this in their mind?