Three Things Likely To Happen

 I've come to three things that I believe will happen in the next five years:

1.  All high school and university sports will end....as the trans-business is impossible to control or resolve.  Both mens and womens sports....ended.

2.  The US government will officially audit all cattle operations in the US....to identify the exact number of cattle in existence, then discuss the necessity of saving mankind by limiting the number of cattle.

3.  More than 1-million small business owners in California currently.....will give up and leave the state.  

An Ancestor Story

Somewhere around 700 years ago....near the 1360 era, I had this ancestor named Thomas.  We will call him 'Tom' for short.

Tom grew up on the eastern side of England, in a small farming community of Levenham, UK (about an hour's drive north of London).  To be honest, in today's environment....there's just not much there.  In the 1200 to 1400 era?  Well....oddly enough, it was regarded as one of the dozen-odd spots on the whole isle with wealth.  Several families with status....lived in the local area.  Tom?  He was a 'clan-member' of one of these families.

At some point, around age twenty to thirty (no one knows the precise story)....Tom ends up on a trip that takes him to the northeastern end of Turkey (on the Black Sea....NOT the Med).  This is 200 years after the crusades and has nothing to do with the crusades.  The period?  This is really the Marco Polo-era, when trade routes are being developed and people are trading off into China, and routes end up going through Persia, Armenia, and Georgia....onto Turkey, the Black Sea, and the Med.

My humble guess is that Tom ended up on one of these sea adventures, and a trading expedition of sorts. 

Along the north coast of Turkey, near the end....lies the port city of Trabzon.  Today?  It has roughly 750,000 residents.  In those days, it probably numbered at least 50,000.  It would have been a major port for trade activity coming out of the Silk Road.

At some point, Tom ends up with a Countess wife (Cycely of Alcel).  Tom?  He likely holds a title of 'Sir' at this point.  Most royalty in England is ending, and even getting the title of the 3rd Duke of Madison....really didn't mean much of anything. 

Who was the Countess Cycely of Alcel?  It is a real unknown.  It's an odd spelling.  If this were English or Irish...it'd be Cecily.  Alcel?  Non-existent today.  It might have been a hilltop, or a courtyard on the outskirts of Trabzon.  Perhaps it's not even around Trabzon but of another area in the distance. 

So you start to look around this region of northeastern Turkey, and its neighbors.  To the east, you have Georgia, and in the middle....the major trading city in the 1300's of Tbilisi.  Tbilisi is fairly well known in this era for prosperity, trade, and capital.  Interestingly enough, it's also known for a fairly large population of Ashkenazi Jews.   Around a hundred years prior to Tom's adventure....the Mongols arrive in the Georgia region, and a fair number of folks evacuated....left....relocated, with some of the wealthy clans ending up in Turkey. 

My suspicion, to this odd feature in this recent DNA test I took....I have .5-percent of Ashkenazi Jewish DNA....is that the Countess here (Cycely of Alcel) is more or less a descent of the Ashkenazi Jews of Tbilisi, and the family had become traders in the Trabzon port region.

A dowry of sorts is offered up to guys of this era, and I'm guessing that Tom was standing at the right place and right time....and ended up with a Countess by this circumstance.  And thus explains to some degree the .5-percent of Ashkenazi Jewish DNA that I have.

What happens after this event?  Tom and Cycely return to England.  Tom passes away at age 49 (we never know the circumstance to this).  Cycely lives on for another forty-odd years. 

Oddly enough, this is the end of any royalty or status claims to the family tree.  No one after this point ever mentions Lord, Duke, Sir, or Countess. 

Six Opinions

 1.  This Target business with the trans clothing/demon design?

Whether they grasp it or not....they probably have permanently lost around 15-to-20 percent of their consumers (former Pennys/Sears folks).  You can survive and continue on, but in certain regions (south for example)....you might be looking at a 35-percent drop in sales/profits.  It'd be enough to close forty-odd stores over the next year.  

All of this leading to lower stock price, and potential take-over?  Well....yeah, I'd sy that's the end-result in 12-to-18 months.  

The funny thing here....employees would probably look over things, and openly suggest that when the satanic design stuff showed up....that was the breaking point (not the rainbow stuff).

2.  It really doesn't matter if two-thirds of people say Biden's age prevents him from a 2nd term.

The same logic should be declared across the board....Senators, House Member, Judges, etc.  

3.  This Jordan Neely-NY City subway episode?

A young guy has a mental issue, which prevents him from respecting people, and operating in a safe day-to-day situation.  Threatening folks?  It appears that this was his 'gimmick', he just got on the wrong subway car, and got stupid.  

I don't think the Marine will be convicted, and that most New Yorkers simply see this as a another sign....the general safety onboard the subway system is screwed-up.

4.  If you were a plain white straight guy....your odds of ever being VP....are now probably around 1-percent.  You need a gimmick now.....like being a woman, being trans, being gay, being Hispanic, being black....to get the VP 'slot'.

5.  This Florida draft law, that was signed in by Gov DeSantis....basically says that kids can't attend a gathering of folks who are hyped-up on sexual fetishes of people dressing up as animals or physical stuff as such.

I tried to imagine how this passion for sexual fetishes all took off in the past decade, and just can't imagine where things went wrong.

6.  Even at 14 cents a can....I just can find a taste reason to go for a Bud-Lite. 

Alien Chatter

 I sat and watched a podcast piece....featuring Stanford professor....Garry Nolan.  Topic?  Aliens.

So he has this unique view....aliens have been around on Earth for a long time.  How he arrives at this opinion?

Well....he has associates in science, who've been dragged into research that can only lead to the associates being asked to figure out how something works, and his friends are stating whatever they are handling....is way more advanced than anything they presently know of. 

It's an odd position to take.  It'd be like some 1880s buggy manufacture team being brought in and given modern disc-brakes to take apart, and figure how it would be applied to buggys.  

Public attention focused on this idea more than ever?  Yeah.  

Iran-Afghanistan?

 While not being covered by the big news folks.....in the past day or two....Afghanistan has moved a massive number of military vehicles (mostly trucks, jeeps, and armored-personnel-carriers) to the Iran border.  

If you browse around, there is a war-lord in Afghanistan who is chatting up the idea of marching onto Tehran.  Distance?  Roughly a 15-hour drive, around 1,100 km.

BS?  There are four angles to this:

1.  The US left behind a ton of military hardware (mostly trucks and APCs).  Rather than disabling the stuff.....it was left for re-use.

2.  Once crossing the border, I'd anticipate Iran to react and defend the border region. So that 15-hour drive will easily turn into a 7-to-12 day event....with the Afghan guys never getting more than five miles into Iran.  I don't think Afghanistan has the logistics to support this.

3.  Isn't this mostly a chat about the Taliban wanting to conquer and run Iran....saying they are more Muslim?  

4.  Is Iran capable of defending itself?  With budget problems, I don't think Iran has spent a lot over the past decade on military infrastructure.  

This may be a 'joke' in several ways, but if this crew were to cross the border....it just begs the question....how much was this organized by the CIA....more than a year ago?

All of this....just a week-long episode to hype war but never carrying it out?  Yeah, I'd say that.  

Old Air Force Program Coming Back?

At some point in the 1980s, and going on for about 15 years.....if  you were given a really crappy assignment, and arrived to find it was a 5-star negative situation....you had this one option of letting your name, rank and AFSC (job code) be advertised, and try to 'swap'.

An example.....you were given orders after three years in Italy....to return to the US....to some base in Montana (Malmstrom).   After three months, you mostly drink excessively and hated everyday.  Then you advertised and discovered this gal....originally grew up in Montana....same rank and AFSC....was willing to swap her base (in Florida).  In a matter of days, this was worked out and six weeks later (at your expense).....you two swapped bases.

How popular was this?  Well.....you never knew from year to year.  The Air Force rarely talked about this.  Occasionally, you'd find out that 300-odd people swapped over a one-year period.  

At some point about twenty years ago, it ended.

Presently?  They are about to revive it....mostly because of the high number of disgruntled people (not recruitment folks, but people with four to sixteen years of service).

How I think this will go?  I suspect that a fair number of 17-year NCOs will decide to find the perfect retirement location (maybe like Nevada or Florida) to swap some hell-hole for, and someone will agree to the deal.  

For me?  I had this odd history....each time I went to a transfer situation....I listed out my top picks, and I got either number one or number two.  Course, I knew people of the opposite tendency....never getting a pick from their top ten.  

Political Observations

 For the remainder of 2023, I'll predict three things:

1.  Podcast folks will carry the bulk of 'water' for candidates.

In this group, I'd put Joe Rogan, Tucker Carlson, etc.  

Democratic candidates likely to get invitations?  Marianne Williamson, RFK Jr, and Biden.  I don't see Biden getting on any podcast.  He'll limit himself to one or two controlled CNN or MSNBC.  

On the Republican side?  Nikki Halley, Trump, DeSantis, Tim Scott, and Vivek Ramasramy.  

RFK is very likely to get points via Rogan....I'd go and suggest that nationally....he'll be ranked to 40-percent by December.

Ramasramy is the one guy that I could see moving up and getting  'lift' by being engaged by Tucker Carlson.  

2.  Ranking by states matters.

My suspicion is that by January 2024....RFK has gained enough points to be likely to take California, and probably five to ten other states.  It won't be enough to win at the convention....where the special delegates are a factor.  

But Biden has this one problem.....not showing up to many podcast sessions, or townhalls. It's possible that RFK has a majority of delegates by the convention, and Biden only wins by the super-delegate 'game'.  

On the Republican side?  In forty states, it's really a factor of who gets second place, and I think that Tim Scott matters....taking points from DeSantis.  I also don't think DeSantis can win Florida (probably taking 35 to 40-percent, against Trump's 55-percent.

3.  This being a race where Trump is mostly sitting in five different court cases, DeSantis unable to get out of the Disney-economic-fall crapper, and Joe Biden mostly a invisible candidate?  

Well.....yeah that is mostly true.

So I come to this odd scenario that I still believe.  I think VP Harris will be announced to be the replacement for Senator Feinstein, and Governor Newsom to be the replacement VP (approved by the Senate only because Harris votes as the tie-breaker).  Then Newsom is announced by November to be the sole guy running and Biden out.

Newsom then appearing left and right via the podcast crew?  Yes.  But here's the odd factor.....people are exiting California left and right.  Most residents are disgruntled.  So how would any podcast interview go?  I'm not convinced that a race between Newsom and RFK....favors Newsom.  I think RFK in a debate....would be way too much for Newsom to handle.  

In the end, if this were a DeSantis versus RFK race?  I'm not convinced DeSantis fits into that type of election, or could win it.  And then the other question....if RFK were it, and he picked some really oddball VP (Charles Barkley comes to mind)?  Would that reset things entirely?