Once There Was a Jungle

 I was stationed in the mid-1980s in Panama....for three years.  It was an rather odd period, and I could probably write a 400-page book over local events/history.  

One interesting aspect that I got into a discussion one day with a American canal employee (he'd been there for years)....about the southern part of the country....the Darien Gap.

It's the southern quarter of the country and extends for about 30 miles into Columbia.

On jungle status?  Five-star.

Back in the 1950s....some discussion had come up about making a road-way through the jungle....so you drive from Alaska all the way to the southern tip of Chile.  Eventually, they reasoned that the Gap was not capable of supporting such a road.  Nothing was ever built.

Prior to the last decade, you'd hear about such-and-such adventure team either treking through the jungle there, or even taking a 4x4 jeep down some trail.

Key negatives?  Snakes, gators, and Pumas.  It's about sixty to eighty miles (depending on where you leave from or arrive), and you can figure a max of maybe ten to fifteen miles a day (at least in the 1980s).  Figure four to six days of walking in such a setting.

Well...it got brought up in the past week....around 350,000 folks (mostly Venezuelan folks) have made the trip in 2023 so far....heading north to the US border.  My guess is that it'll hit 450,000 by the end of the year.  Your guess for 2024?  It might go well above half-a-million.  

An established trail now?  Yeah.  And I'd guess that a thousand folks a day are now walking this trail as a minimum.

Panama disturbed by this?  You see differing views.  The Gap was supposed to be a barrier where people didn't penetrate the country.  As long as people continue walking north, I don't think it'll be a big deal.

Affecting the population of Venezuela?  Well....before Covid, they had a population of 28-million.  Since Covid and this exit-stuff?  I doubt that the 28-number is correct and might suggest that it's starting to get near 26-million.  

The problem is...once you prove the Gap trail is utterly safe......nothing much would hinder a 12-year old Venezuelan kid from taking the walk and exiting crappy conditions in Venezuela.  3,200 mile walk?  If you throw in an occasional bus or train ride....a kid could probably arrive in El Paso in 20 days.  

My View Of A Trump-Biden-RFK-DeSantis November 2024 Election

 About every week that goes by, I see the odds of a 3-person November election, and even a 4-person election....increasing.

How you'd develop this?  If you had a dozen or more states create a barrier for RFK to be on the Democratic primary, or forbid Trump's name on the primary....we'd advance to Biden and DeSantis.  But by mid-summer, I'd suggest both RFK and Trump going onto various ballots in differing states.

It would be nearly impossible to predict an outcome in a state like California....if you said all four were on the ballot, or even having a Biden-RFK-DeSantis situation.  Just having RFK win California alone....would create problems in reaching the 270-point in the Electoral College.

Then you add in a state or two like Florida and Texas, where Trump would likely win.

In a no-win Electoral College situation....ONLY the top three vote-getters move to the House state-by-state vote in January of 2025.  I'm pretty sure DeSantis would be the low guy.

How would Democratic blocks go if you had a choice of RFK or Biden?  Unknown.  Could you have a case where Biden wins the Presidency again, but with less national votes than Trump or RFK?  Yeah, and that would demonstrate an incredibly weak future for Biden's next four years.

This discussion popping up more often?  I'd say between now and January....it'll be openly discussed.

A Billion-Dollar Loss Story

 I'm into Spotify (the podcast operation).  I'll admit....it's probably not more than five to eight hours a month, and I'm fairly picky about who I listen to.  

This past month, the management of Spotify has had to admit that a billion dollars went out to 'hire' (contract) several big-name folks, and this was a colossal failure with marginal listeners.

Who?  Kim Kardashian, Prince Harry/Meghan Markle, and Mr/Ms Obama.  To be honest, there's probably another forty-odd folks....who were hyped-up to the management and they just fell for the 'gimmick' of hiring names without thinking of the people who might be interested in them.

To be honest, after you've heard Prince Harry/Meghan chat for about six minutes.....you probably begin to wonder how they could fill a single hour, or even a weekly 'show'.  

Crappy management behavior by Spotify?  It reminds me of the way that various baseball players and their agents try to sell 7-year contracts to half-wit owners, and a team ends up with a marginal player who might only perform for four of the seven years contract.  

But it establishes an 'end' for the fake promi-folks.  

These podcasts becoming a big deal?  Here's the factor.....classic TV (NBC, ABC, and CBS) has hit some peak and gone into a spiral.  There's just a lot of crap TV and people are looking for something 'different'.  Podcasts fills the void.  

My Reservation-Work Story

 Early in my Air Force career, I worked in civil engineering and was assigned to McChord AFB, WA.  Around the 3rd month, it came up that the fence 'line' on the reservation (not the base) was rusted up and they wanted a team to run around 5,000 ft of security fencing (fresh new wire, posts).   None of us had ever been out to this area (it was off the base by a quarter mile.....to the entrance).

So Monday came, and a civilian in our shop led me and two airmen.  We started at 7:30 AM to gather tools required, and had a vehicle ready by 7:45.  Then we drove.  

You had to exit the base and drive about a mile on some public road....to a gate with a lock.  We had the key....we entered.  From that point, it took 45 minutes to reach this 'end' of the reservation.  

The journey?  As urban as Tacoma was....this was like some 'lost' situation.  We'd come to a fork in the road, and the civilian would say 'turn-here'.  There were probably 20 of these forks.  By the end, I had no reference in my head.  

Gravel/dirt trail.  No signs.  You could never get above 20 mph because of trail conditions.  

So it's about 8:55 AM when we arrive at the site, and yes.....it's probably 1940s fencing there.  Dirt-motorcyclists had discovered the reservation and illegally used it.  It made sense to replace the fencing and put up 'forbidden' signs.  But I looked at the immense journey it took to get there.   

The dozer guy cleared the whole path for us to put up the new fence.  

But the issue is....we basically work from 9 AM to 10:45 AM....then leave for chow, return at 1:15 PM...to work until 3:30 PM....for a grand total of 4 hours of actual work a day.  

Whatever the planning people had suggested for four weeks of work, would never be resolved with four people pulling with only 16 man-hours a day.   We were wasting half the work-day in driving out to this remote site.  

After two weeks of working on this, I was shaking my head.  I was sitting in a marginal Chevy 1.5 ton seat for about 4 hours a day.  Nothing much on the fence was advancing.  So I begged off the crew and just said give me the worst job left in the shop....tar-crew for base streets.   

I suspect that the fence crew was still working the issue three months later. 

The reservation thing comes up the year after I left McChord.  One of the guys from our crew sent me a note (with a pic) over a new 'adventure'.  This reservation thing attracted his attention, and he convinced his GF, and another airman couple....to do a camping trip out into the reservation.  

They camped for a whole weekend....somewhere near a stream.  Whole place was full of mosquitoes.  He sent me a picture of the four (at the conclusion of the trip).....each person had at least 100 mosquito bites.  

My Humble Thoughts Over Michelle Obama Running (The Rumor)?

 For about four months, there's been persistent rumors of Michelle Obama getting into the primary of 2024, and running because of Joe Biden's 'problems'. 

Frankly, I see the story as BS. 

My four observations?

1.  She's never held an elected office...ever.  Not even a mayor job (like Mayor-Pete).

2.  Speech-wise.....she has probably given forty-odd speeches but there's nothing remarkable.

3.  If you did ask her any foreign affairs questions.....I don't think she can much of anything beyond pointing to the location on a map.

4.  If she's the 'sole' person for the primary, beyond RFK who never gets mentioned....what's that say about the depth of the party for big-time players?  Note, from this past week, Governor Newsom said 'NO' that he's not running.  

So I see this as a lame PR thing that some journalists are hyping her for President, when the odds are heavily against her.  

But let me add two unusual factors.  First, selling her to the black community won't be that easy because they see her as having 'status' (wealth,  college).  Black guys will even bring up this Obama drug-stuff and gay rumor.....to say she didn't see all of this happening.  

Second, she's never really encountered a debate.  Donald versus Michelle?    

It's a curious BS story, but it just isn't a likely thing.  

18 Observations About Modern Mankind

 1.  People generally want 'something' to be true, or 'something' to be false.  Whether it is true, or false....doesn't matter.

2.  A store that is losing $10,000 a day on theft....probably has a ticking 'end'.  You can't make up the losses by charging $3 for a stick of gum, or $21 for a cheap $7 Mexican-made t-shirt.

3. The statistics for death-by-flu (going back over 40 years)....mostly resembles the death-by-Covid (going back over four years).   It's just that we never seemed to talk much about doom/gloom of flu.

4.  Turning politics into a Jesus-versus-Satan situation....probably does religion an injustice.  

5.  If you paid some college $100,000 over four years, and you haven't expanded your intellect or comprehension....you've wasted four years of your life on top of the $100k debt.  

6.  You can't make low-IQ people (those with 80 or less) any smarter than what they already are.  Even if you promote them into management....to get rid of them from one situation....you simply make the low-IQ guy think he's capable when he isn't.

7.  If you bring up Covid 'contact' via eyeballs with a guy wearing a KN-95 mask.....the odds are that he won't believe you.  

8.  At present pace, I expect legal challenges to occur shortly where a 9-year-old kid says he's smart enough and doesn't want any additional schooling. 

9.  If you had 500,000 new migrants show up....none speaking English, or showing a trade-craft situation....what exactly do you think they will be doing for the next three or four years while you house them in a $75-a-night hotel room?  

10.  The amount of RISKS that you encounter from getting up and laying down at night.....are probably 100 times the level of what people in the 1960s faced.  

11.  On 'trust', I would imagine that half of the general public has lost a fair amount of trust in their doctor, their minister, and their school officials.  Skeptical nature is at a all-time level.

12.  If you randomly asked 100 people (18 or over) if they've read the book '1984'....I doubt if you find more than 15 of them who admit this.

13.  I'd estimate that one-quarter of the general public has delusionary problems, but are quiet happy to remain in this sort of mind (like that Elwood P. Dowd character in Harvey).  You shouldn't try to bring them back into reality.

14.   If you start counting at 6 AM with local news and pay attention throughout the day....the word 'crisis' probably gets uttered at least thirty times.  If you ask people to define crisis....it'll come out like some PhD-level chatter that makes no sense.

15.  Life is mostly about theatrics....presenting an image or brand or message.  You already start with this gimmick by the end of 1st grade.

16.  Generally, if you wake up and suddenly realize you are in the middle of a cult....it's best to say very little, and show minimal 'fret' or worry as you exit the mess. 

17.  You need PhD-level people to think about problems.  You don't want a PhD-level person to run your office or company, or city/state.  

18.  There is no such thing as cheap electricity.  Maybe it existed in the 1960s/1970s.....but it's long gone now.

Poverty Stimulation?

 I was sitting and reading this piece over Highland Park (the city in Illinois).  Apparently, someone in the city gov't had this idea.

They wanted the public there (30k residents) to get some idea about poverty.  No one says why this was necessary.....just that they could 'teach' you.

So a “poverty simulation event” was arranged where well-off people (don't know how they figured the dividing line)....would get some play-action to pretend being poor for 2.5 hours.

Then the story goes....this was to be done at some local well-to-do country club.

Now, I'm from the rural region of Alabama and will admit that I've never been to a country club.  I did work with a lady in the 1990s, and she would get into these discussions about her growing up in Ohio, and her family had some membership in a country club (primarily for golf reasons).  So I have an idea how they function.

Looking over this....I don't really grasp how 2.5  man-hours can be spent....pretending to be poor.  I'd probably show up at the event and order a $14 cocktail right before I entered the poverty-room.  

I'd mingle with other folks from the club....occasionally sneaking back out to freshen up my cocktail (three or four times).  By the end of the 2.5 hours.....I probably wouldn't remember that much.

The problem with this silly game is that you end up with stupid city management people (an IQ of 80 or below but they have a college degree).....who are engaging you to be as stupid as they are.  

Without a drink, I probably would have engaged in this, and told each poverty person....lets get ahead.  There's work over at such-and-such place, and we can work a second-shift at the hammer-factory.  I'd show them the light of work, money and missing out on poverty.

Yeah, I would have been kicked out of the poverty pretend-stuff, and the club might have suspended me for 7 days for bad-boy behavior.  

Here in the end of my summary....I just kinda wonder....how many people did show up for the poverty pretend deal at the country club?  Five.....ten?