Signs Of 2025 Being A Repeat Of 1929?

 I probably spend a minimum of 1.5 hours a day reading over finance, business and commerce news (across the globe).  I'm retired....so I can afford to 'waste' my time.

I've probably read four books over the 1920s since 2018, and it's fascinating to view how the 1920s formed a 'doomed-or-die' landscape for the end of 1929.

Between the insurance crisis existing currently (for cars and homes)....a condo crisis in Florida....companies letting people go.....restaurants in a state of collapse  because of pricing for dinners...crime....and at least thirty-other-odd problems...there's a banking crisis brewing.  

In some ways.....there's a staged 'delay' agenda in the mix....to get things past the election and likely to be a collapse of 1929-proportation coming in early 2025.  Yeah, I'd even go and say it'll be a epic moment where we downsize our lives, and go into a hibernation type reaction (maybe for a year or two).

The ability of the Treasury to sell US Treasury notes/bonds....to gift people money to climb out?  There's virtually no one left to buy the notes/bonds....unless the Vanguard, Blackrock people saw some incentive to waste their money on their act.

My general advice?  Three things: Plan your life on meager limits (the eat-beans-and-rice mentality)....for at least a year.  If there isn't a massive cut in government services/cost.....prepare for a 3-to-5 year depression.  Prepare for relatives/kin-folks to ask for sleeping space/help....and your patience to be drilled-down-upon to extremes.

The people with 'weak-guts'? They will be pushed to the extremes  and need 'coaching' daily.

The survivors?  They will be the ones who had limited debt to enter this period, and had a head-start on being frugal.

Modern Society In A Fit of Being Uniformed, Delusional, Or Evil?

Yesterday, I came to this moment of pondering....are a serious number of people walking around...in a state of being uninformed, delusional, or evil?

Some people are blissfully in a state of being uninformed, and happy in this state of mind.  They'd prefer you not drag up bad thoughts, or facts.

Some people are painfully aware of delusions going on, and would prefer you just not speak of the truth.

Then you have some folks who see things in a evil way, and don't want you to screw up the spiral going on.

It's an odd feeling to realize the landscape, and calculating the potential number of bad paths that people might lead.

Seven Things

 1. I've watched a couple of clips of the Democratic Convention.  I'll just say in blunt-talk....what you generally see missing is any chatter about economic success in America...that someone can BELIEVE in, for the past 3.5 years.

This election...is oddly about a tripped-up economy.  Biden should have hired a dozen 'Einsteins' on day one and told them...manage the economy for me and make it a total success story.  

2.  Just ODD...from AP.....the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services says there is a link of some type with fluoridated drinking water giving a 2 to 5 point IQ drop in kids.

3.  Amusing.....the structure chosen for the Dem Convention....has private cabins/suites on the upper decks....normally for the VIP guests of sports events.  So to get one of these for the Convention....you had to pay $500k   So the industry/ultra-rich folks who were being written into the nightly scripts to be REGULATED....were likely sitting there and knowing no idiot is going to regulate them in the end....because they paid for a front-row seat.

4.  I watched a discussion this AM.....generally when you walk into a cafe for a coffee....the internet within the cafe was 'FREE'.  At some location in the US....the cafe folks established a 'fee' program for the Wi-Fi.  Even if you bought the coffee....it was not enough for the Wi-Fi.  Figured cost?  In the $2-range.  The business side figures you will pay.  I'm not that sure about the tactic.

5.  The downfall of Gov Newsom of California?  It's mostly about a crappy downfall over SF and LA.  Well....if you look at Gov Walz and Minneapolis's downfall....it's the same basic story.  There is no difference between Minneapolis and SF....if you really spend time looking over the two urban areas.

6.  I noticed that the DNC held some kind of training....to tell people how to recognize 'sneaky' Republicans who might try to infiltrate a Democratic meeting.  

It reminded me in a way of religious cults and how you work to keep the non-cultists 'out'.

7.  On this talk of Kam's idea for a new tax on unrealized gains...there was no suggestion on what to do in a massive slump/recession....when unrealized losses occurs (meaning the gov't is screwed big-time). 

Five Things

 1.  Does Kam have a drinking problem?

Over the past week....I've seen thirty references to this idea.

My answer?  NO.  She's likely taking anxiety medication, and this triggers the goofy chatter.

Does it bother folks with the goofy chatter?  Yeah....it's starting to be a daily thing where someone points to a talk she gives.

2.  Is President Biden 'finished'? 

From this day forward....I doubt that you see or hear Biden on any newscast except for once a week.  It'll be an odd feeling....like he was cast adrift on some raft, or sent off to a leper-colony.

3.  I'm up to the point where I think everyone should have three or four fake accents, and they should practice each at least one hour out of the day.

4.  It's just interesting...someone finally came up and said that all these 20-somethings and 30-something with college debt issues.....have home debt, credit card debt and car debt....that they can't handle.  It wasn't just one single debt issue...we now learn.

5.  I suspect at least five million Americans are fully onboard to shift over to a Soviet Union economic system.  It ought to bother people.  

A Undefined Problem

 

I read over this about an hour ago, and it's been on my mind.

The general problem here is the zero-business.  The minute you bring up zero in any math  problem...it's a trick situation.

In this case....zero is undefined.  If you had one cow, and you attempted to divide the cow by zero....there is still just one cow standing there.

You can use apples, peanuts, wasps, chunky whore-like ladies, a bull, a can of beer, and even a dead possum.  You still have one standing there.

What would bother me with the story?  You have a teacher with a problem, and a principal with a problem.  In this scenario....the kid can't remain in the public school....he or she has to leave.  

A What-If Story

 Lets say that you went out and bought a grocery (maybe a Whole Foods....maybe a Piggly Wiggly).  In the first five years.....you had a general profit of around $250,000 a year....after balancing the books and paying your taxes.  Then along came Covid, some changes in law, and you noted that weekly theft numbers went up.  

You had theft insurance but upon discussing the matter with the insurance folks....you came to realize that one single submission for one single month....would trigger a 75-percent increase in the yearly cost of insurance.  So you avoid triggering the insurance rate increase.

What you do?  Well....you go into the system and add 2-percent onto the cost of all products sold.  In the beginning...it's  not a big deal.

About a year into increased theft.....you notice that the weekly rate has doubled.

So you go in and rig up a 7-percent increase in the cost of groceries.

You go and add cameras. You add 7 security guys (adding more expense, so you trigger another 7-percent increase on goods).

More measures are taken.....you add another 1-percent to 3-percent onto the cost.

Then one day, you notice some person claiming intellect and wit....running for president....has said price-controls have to occur.  You add up the woes, weekly pressure, and increasing theft....wondering....how quick could I sell this 'load-of-crap'  grocery before price-controls arrive and destroy my model.

Your nephew 'Micky' comes up....business graduate of some stage university.   He wants to give you advice on how to properly run a grocery.  You eyeball his words....knowing that he has zero insider knowledge on how things work in today's world.  

What happens after November's election?

One of two things....you either keep running a theft-prone business with a ever-increasing pricing scheme, or you fold up because some idiots with no understanding will price-control you out-of-business.  

In the real world.....you opt for a 3rd option....making it a private operation that you can  only enter if you pay for a membership (with a active credit-card).....and agree to a full-up frisk at the end of the shopping experience....promising one-third off from what other groceries are offering.

What's This Election Really About?

 Well....it goes to the 2020 results....where Joe Biden got 81.3 million votes, and Donald Trump got 74.2 million votes. Can such a numbers game be reaccomplished...by Kam and Donald?

In this talk....I'll also point out via third-party activity....they took around 1.8 million votes.

The odd factor?  Combined with the three....there are around 157 million votes.  In the 2016 election...how many voted?  137 million.  Yeah.....there's an odd upswing.  Typically....every four years, you can figure there is a bump-up of five to seven percent.  It's about twice the normal bump-up.

People having left the Trump vote since 2020?  People claim this....but there's  no solid proof.

Switching out from Biden to Harris improving the numbers?  I would suggest that the economic program, current economic woes, migration/immigration problems, and the socialism chatter...are making her campaign less likely to achieve 81 million votes.  

Clean-up of the voting listings?  Well....that adds to lesser votes in general.

All of this chatter affecting the Senate races? That's now an issue as well.  I'd say Ohio, Montana, Nevada, and West Virginia will flip from Democrat to Republican....if the Trump vote stays near or more than 2020.  Arizona in the mix?  Based on polling, I'd say it's 50-50.

I just don't see 157 million votes being achieved in 2024.  A humble guess....at least 10 million votes will disappear, and people will ask....what happened?