Thursday, 5 April 2018

Warrant Officers Back to the Air Force?

I noticed it got brought up today....there is a Rand Corp study underway, as requested by the Pentagon on a Air Force topic.....bringing back warrant officers.....as enlisted pilots.

Yep, a shocker.

Around 1960, the Air Force concluded a study, and said that new 'super-enlisted' ranks meant that they didn't need Warrant Officers any longer.

The other services?  They kept Warrant Officers.

So why bring this up?  Well....they are losing pilots every single month.  They went through periods like this in the 1980s, the 1990s, but the last five years.....this has been a major problem.  A guy will wrap up six to eight years and just say that they aren't happy with the life-style....the stress.....the fake jobs to keep them busy....the deployment schedule.....and the gimmicks built into the promotion cycle.

How would Warrant Officers fit in?  My best guess?

First, most of these pilot slots for the unmanned recon vehicles would slide over to strictly Warrant Officers.

Second, I'm guessing that maybe a third-to-half of all tanker jobs would go to Warrant Officers.

Third, I'm also guessing that Warrant Officers would begin to fit into the medical profession as well.

Fourth, it's possible that the intelligence field might allow them in, but I'd expect a massive fight from the senior NCOs when it comes time to discuss billets and actual jobs. 

What it typically takes to be a Warrant Officer?  A two-year degree, and usually four years of enlisted time.

From the pilot prospective, I think this is the only way to answer the drone-pilot issue in the years ahead.  Regular pilots just don't want to be drone-pilots and it's bad enough now that it drives folks to hand their papers over and ask to be let go.

But senior NCOs would fight this tooth and nail.....refusing to allow this creation to occur.  You'd basically have some junior NCO.....with an associates degree and six years in.....getting promoted up to a Warrant Officer position and out-ranking folks who'd been his supervisor just weeks before. 

So my best guess is that the Air Force will agree to a very strong statement of creating around five-hundred WO position.....all to be strictly operations, or pilot-related....and most all to be related to drone-operations.  Maybe five years down the road, after acceptance in the drone world.....maybe the other fields in the Air Force would finally accept Warrant Officers back.

Brief Chat on Mussolini

My brother brought up an NPR piece that came out over Madeleine Albright's new book.....Fascism: A Warning.  NPR had a big interview with her, and the hype here....modern era, new techno gadgets, Trump, America First, etc.  All of this in her mind leads to fascism.  A bit of this book leads onto this generalized topic of Germany and Italy, Hitler and Mussolini.

While in the same era, on the same military side, and both having met on occasion.....there's a ton of differences between the two countries, and the two leaders.  Trying to weave a written piece where both Hitler and Mussolini fit into the same sphere, in my opinion, is a mistake.  So this is a chat mostly about Mussolini, who is more or less an unknown to most Americans.

Benito Mussolini is a remarkable guy.  Born in northern Italy in 1883....he's the product of a blacksmith, and a local Catholic school teacher.  By age eighteen, it's safe to say he's developed into an educated guy....having gone off to a teacher's school, and probably got a pretty safe profession lined up.

He has an issue though....in 1902, he's supposed to (obligated) to go do military service, and he refuses.  This leads to Mussolini packing up and running off to Switzerland.  Oddly in this brief period, he shifts professions and is a stone-mason.  Usually, you'd need a number of years as a helper and no one has ever been able to explain this work period.  My guess is that he just helped to move stones around for the actual real stone-mason.

The other thing that he does in this Swiss period of his life....he gets into socialism....to the point that he attends meetings, and is all hyped up about this great political lifestyle.

At some point in 1903....he gets arrested for political action while in Switzerland.  They hold him for two weeks in jail (kinda like the Hitler jail episode, just shorter).  Then they kick him out to Italy, where he promptly returns to Switzerland.  This is short-lived because he gets into trouble again.

In 1904, Italy rewrites some of the rules, and he's given some chance to return to Italy....but he has to serve in the military.  This time....he signs up (two-year period).  So in 1906, he's all finished with this military business, and seems clear of this radical youth business.....so he's on the path to become a teacher.

This low-period lasts for about three years, and then he's hyped up again....focused on the Socialist Party of Italy, and becoming a regional big-time player of the party.  In his mind, he's an intellectual and very smart.  No one argues much about this perception. 

So we come to the summer of 1914, where World War I will start.  The Socialist Party has taken a pro-war position, and Mussolini has taken a anti-war position.  A lot of this Mussolini position is based on the Hapsburg Empire, and the belief that it should be broken up into pieces.

Then this odd thing happens.  The Socialist Party dumps him.  It's not in a pleasant way, and one might suggest that Mussolini is going be pretty hyped up and negative about the party.

By the end of 1914, he's dumped Socialism, and now believes in Nationalism.  With this come a totally different view of the war, and he signs up....serving from 1915 to 1917.....rising to the rank of Corporal (yes, the same rank as Hitler).

At this pivotal point in 1917....out of the Army....again an odd thing happens.  Mussolini gets a job with MI-5 of the British Secret Service.  His new job is to publish and hype a pro-war position.  Yep, they are actually paying him a fair wage to hype the war. 

The war comes to a closure, but Mussolini continues with his publishing work, and by 1922....a creation of Mussolini's mind comes into play....the 'black-shirts'.  He gets 30,000 black-shirts to appear in Rome and demand the resignation of the President of Italy.  It's a fairly dramatic two-day period.  At this pivotal point, the King of Italy makes this decision.....dumping the President, refusing to declare marshall law, and appoints Mussolini as the new head of state.

Mussolini at this point is a full ten years ahead of Hitler....he's played out the system to dump the government and bring himself into the leadership role.  Hitler will make the same decision in the 1922 period....fail, and end up in jail for a period of time.  It'll be eight years later before Hitler achieves the same trick, but mostly by votes, instead of brown-shirts.

Over the next twenty-odd years, it's safe to say that the Mussolini period was a cult-like experience and it was almost like some Mel Brooks comedy. 

In the early 1930s....Italy goes through an expansion period into northern Africa....mostly a failed campaign but it kept headlines. 

Mussolini was supposed to be an expert at everything....music, speeches, art, sports, etc.  That was the theme of this twenty-odd year period.  In some ways, I suspect that Hitler followed the trend and believed the same tricks would work with Germans.

There is this brief period in 1939-1940, where Italy has not declared itself, and the British seem to think that they can convince Mussolini to be allied with them.  This is a make-or-break point, where Mussolini might have gone down in history with statues and positive words.  Instead, he signs up with Hitler and the rest is history.

In the summer of 1943, most everything is going negative for Mussolini, and he's asked to come over to the King's palace....where he's 'fired'.  Almost twenty years invested as the leader of Italy, and fired.  He's placed under detention, and held for several weeks.....until the Germans come to rescue him. 

Hitler brings him back up to Germany, and tries to have a talk with him.  Since being 'fired'....he's just not the same Mussolini as before.  In effect, he's lost his 'mojo'.

He ends up going back and acting as some figure-head leader for the northern half of Italy, but this is not the same Mussolini as before.  He's lost enthusiasm, and shows no energy. 

For roughly eighteen months, he sits around and is mostly waiting for the bitter end of the war.  At some point, with the Americans advancing....he figures he has one brief chance to leave (going to Spain), but is detained and shortly after this....executed by an Italian group. 

Mussolini's whole sphere of influence is based on intellectualism....that he's awful smart, and this builds into a cult-like public spectacle.  His government could own the bulk of pubic sector devices....run the railway and everything that was necessary for the public.  As much as historians want to talk over fascism and his development of the idea.....I like the idea of him having invented Mussolinism....a fake but likeable intellectual cult-government, with flip-flop type values that could easily change from day to day. 

Comparing against Hitler?  There are bits and pieces where you might be able to compare the two.  Mussolini was fairly educated in books and schooling....Hitler much less so. Both did jail-time.  Mussolini.

But there is this odd factor about Mussolini which never gets brought up.  He writes roughly fifty books.  There's even one fictional piece entitled: The Cardinal's Mistress.  Some people even go to suggest that if he'd just stayed out of politics....he would have likely been the Ernest Hemingway of Italy. 

Wednesday, 4 April 2018

The Trump Border Idea

Over the past fifteen years, there's been two deployments of US troops along the US and Mexico border.  For the most part....neither achieved anything but headlines.

The Bush deployment involved 6,000 national guard troops. 

The Obama deployment in 2010?  It involved around 1,500 troops....mostly to collect data and use new recon assets.

Why the failure? 

I tend to view the lack of number to the overall success expected.  In my view, the 1,954 miles would probably require a minimum of 35,000 to 45,000 troops to maintain an around-the-clock presence.  This would mean at least six different installations along the border, and a hefty amount of recon usage.  And no...I'm not talking about temporary headline gimmicks like 10,000 National Guard troops for four months.

My suggestion would be that you go and offer up a new service to the US military....'Guard Patrol'.  Offer a chance to the Army and Air Force members to cross over, and assign a full-time job to around 35,000 active duty personnel....with only one single function....guarding the border. 

Treating this as a temp deal and repeating the Bush/Obama failures?  Well....yeah, there's pretty good odds that this is a another screw-up in the making. 

Tuesday, 3 April 2018

Trump and this Military Option at the Border

First, as much as one might sit and think the Border Patrol has the strength to monitor the border.....they don't.  They'd probably have to add at least 50,000 additional personnel to their manpower to reach some reasonable stage of border control.

Second, there's some people talking of the idea that a 'peace-dividend' might come out of this South Korea-North Korea talks, and that the 37,000 troops in South Korea might not be necessary.  I think that's a minimum of three years away, but if some treaty occurred....then you'd have 37,000 troops coming back to the US.  What exactly do you want to do with them?

Third, if you were of the mind to cross the border, and got to the Trump-fence or Trump-wall.....maybe you might still have enthusiasm to cross.  If you figure in the odds of three-hundred Army guys along a sixty-mile area that you were attempting to cross....the odds are against you. 

Fourth, there's all these recon assets that the Army would bring with them.  It would reshuffle the whole border crossing strategy. 

There are negatives to this idea....for example, we aren't talking about 3,000 Army personnel.  We also aren't talking about the Border Patrol going away.  I also don't think the Border Patrol would like competition. 

Sunday, 1 April 2018

My Only Sales Experience in Life

There are dozens of skills I acquired over my life.  Salesmanship....with one exception....was a big zero.

At some point, around my 17th year in the Air Force....my boss needed someone to serve as 'snacko' for the shop.  This was typically a person who had a refrigerator in the breakroom....bought snacks....controlled the money.....and occasionally did some positive things like run a burger-day for the office.  I ended up with the job for about 4.5 years.

The first problem I came to face was an Air Force regulation that says if you hold more than X-amount of money....you have to have a 'club'....records....and a bunch of extra problems.  In those days, it was roughly an income of $100 a month or more....that would get you into some hassle.  Just in man-hours, you could figure three man-hours a month on paperwork, meetings, bank-episodes (they wanted you to run an account with the credit union).  One of my golden rules in life was to avoid paperwork at all costs

At the end of six weeks of operation, I found that I had around $200 in profit.  I did something the previous guy didn't think much over.....I bought only when items were on discount at the commissary, and bought in bulk.  I bought larger selections.....ten to twelve different sodas, and various health-drinks. 

So to avoid profit, I spent as quickly as possible.....this meant a full-up hamburger bar-b-q  with everything free of charge.

By the end of the second month, I decided to dive into frozen food offerings and odd snacks. Within ninety days....I had almost $400 as profit, and then started bar-b-q's every two to four weeks to dump the profit.

I had the BX drink truck start pulling up to front door and buying bulk. I got to know the commissary guys and the various sales that they ran....and would buy cases of Pop-Tars and various snack foods.

I walked in on one afternoon to find Pop-Tarts at half-price, and bought roughly 120 boxes of Pop-Tarts. 

When summer came.....I bought cheap ice cream via the commissary at discounted prices, and was turning $30 a week just on ice cream profits.

When the Micheal Jackson Mystery Drink came out (ever so brief), I bought a case of it and even tried to sell it (the only thing that I ever lost money on).

Over a period or roughly 55 months.....I ran this fund and probably arranged for forty bar-b-q's. I had the most profitable unprofitable snacko fund that you could imagine. Almost every single soda that I bought over the period....was on discount price...so I barely paid 25 cents for it at the BX or commissary, and resold it at 50 cents.

So when I came to retire from the Air Force....I handed the snacko fund over to another NCO....and in less than three months....it dissolved. They couldn't sustain the profit....they started accepting IOU's (a habit I refused), and they were buying mostly diet drinks (don't ever let the healthy folks operate a snacko fund).

It was my brief play into business operations and the one thing that I could brag about. Every profit I made.....dissolved into burgers and grilled chicken. In the end....I was still worth zero, but I had enhanced the morale of the office by leaps and bounds. I never lost a penny....which is kinda remarkable (well....except for the Micheal Jackson Mystery Drink).

Friday, 30 March 2018

Lack of Numbers

I read a piece today that suggested that 59.3 million households in America.....hold a minimum of one weapon in the house or apartment.   So I went and researched....how many households exist in America, and the number presently is set near 126-million households.

I sat and looked over both numbers and tend to question them.

For example....when you reach the 126-million households....are you counting dorm rooms, and barracks rooms....as a household? 

Are you counting RV units parked on long-term beach fronts in Myrtle Beach, SC.....as a household?

Are you counting a retirement village apartment....as a household?

I worked with a guy years ago who owned a RV trailer which was permanently parked on the outskirts of Las Vegas....while he lived in Tucson.  He'd fly up to Vegas on Friday night, and stay till early AM hours of Monday....to fly back to work on Monday morning.  In my mind, he had two households.

As for the households holding weapons?  I don't really buy that 59-million number.

In the county where I grew up in Alabama....I'd take a guess that 95-percent of households there....have a minimum of one weapon.  In fact, I'd take a guess that 70-percent hold a minimum of two rifles, and a pistol.

In the state of Montana?  I'd take a guess that it's near 90-percent of the households which hold a single weapon or more.

So if these numbers thrown around by the news media are bogus....what does that say?  Some would suggest that we need licenses and true government auditing....in order to control things.

But if you went that far....how much would it cost?  Billions?  And would people admit anything now?  I have my doubts.  Just getting people to admit how many bank accounts they have....would trigger people into deceiving the government. 

Wednesday, 28 March 2018

The Value of a Degree

I was reading a piece yesterday that went into detail what some companies are facing as they go out and hired new graduated college students.  They found that the 'kids' were lacking in various skills that they should have acquired in college.  Mind you....we are talking about four-year university graduates.  The piece discussed the problems of analytical concepts, project design, time-line construction, teamwork, etc. All of these....used to be taught at least in some marginal way, and you'd finish college with a basic understanding how your skills would fit into a commercial company.

The humor part of this....which is left out of the news piece....is that this 21 or 22 year old 'kid' is standing there and all happy that HR hired him for some $40,000 a year job, and then he likely discovers the the next week as he shows up.....he's automatically signed up for five seminar episodes taught by some fifty-year old individual from some private firm, and discussing this mystery thing called 'project management'. 

A whole week will pass with 'Professor Bob' talking about this big science agenda called project management.  The kid will be amazed at all the facets and benefits of project management.  Then at the final hour of the class....the 'kid' will ask why they don't teach something like this in college?  'Professor Bob' will just grin and tell the kid that in the 1970s and 1980s....it was a regular part of any business degree, and that they've weakened the whole program to such an extent....that your degree is mostly worthless.

A week or two will pass, and another three-to-five day seminar will occur.  Over that year, the company will waste at least thirty days of work production in getting the 'kid' to a level that they are beneficial to the company. 

So the question is....is a bachelor's degree really worth the $50,000 to $90,000 that it cost today?  If you get hired and they automatically revalue the degree to a three-quarter situation....did you get cheated out of the full value of the education?  Does the college even care?