When Will Joe Go?

 There are two groups of thought over this, and I've heard the differing arguments.

First, there's the idea that he'll be gone by first couple of months of 2022.  The logic to this is that his administration won't really gather steam or show accomplishment during 2021.  

With mid-terms coming at them by summer of 2022 and the election in November....the Democratic Party needs President Harris in position and a driving force for the 2022 midterm election.  

In this scenario, you'd have to start with a list of problems....handing them to CBS or CNN or the NY Times.  Six to eight weeks of dementia chatter would start up, and then the committee would go into action.  Four rough weeks of examination, and then the meeting within the House and Senate.  Out would go Joe Biden, and the news media would quickly circle the  wagons and not utter his name ever again.

The case against this scenario?  If they wanted Harris to run in 2024, and 2028....she'd have to step into the role of President AFTER January 2022 (after the midterm election).  

The issue here?  It's very likely that the Republicans will win ten to twenty seats, and put Harris at a serious disadvantage for 2023/2024.  

The second idea is that they stall this as long as possible....maybe to the summer of 2023, then Harris steps in.

The chief problem with this idea is that Joe Biden will probably average an event every three days where people will question his mental decline.  You can't go through all of 2021 and 2022....with a large percentage of the public asking stupid questions.

The idea that people will ask if he was in decline in 2019 and 2020?  Well....yeah, it's probably going to be brought up.  The news media can't answer that question.

The idea that people will ask about several Senators and House members in mental decline as well?  That probably will occur, and I would suggest three or four folks get a gentle push out the door around the same time period. 

Swalwell, Secret Sex and Reality

 At some point over the past couple of days....some journalist asked Rep Swalwell (the guy who had a Chinese agent as a sex liaison lady for a period of time (more than a year) about his situation and the lady.  He responded...it's classified and no need to discuss it.

The reality over this?  At some point, 2015-era...the FBI quietly came up to Swalwell, and laid out this presentation.  Basically, they knew he was having an affair with some Chinese gal named Christine Fang (her got-you name was Fang-Fang).  Normally, they would not care who you were banging....even if this was a 16-year gal or some Hollywood lady.

But in this case.....Fang Fang was an actual Chinese agent.  

At some point in early 2014, Fang Fang came out and wanted to help Swalwell on campaign donations (best we not discuss this part of the story).  Swalwell and Fang Fang did got into a hot-and-heavy situation.

Did he pass classified data to Fang Fang?  Well....zero proof of that.

Did he pass confidential info to Fang Fang?  Well.....zero proof of that.

Was the sex that Swalwell and Fang Fang had....classified?  To be honest, zero proof of that.

Having spent two decades in the intel world, I can vouch that it's a slippery situation to get Human-Intelligence data and decide upon classifications.  An example: Swalwell meets up with Fang Fang, sipping through a bottle of wine....the two do some pretty crazy stuff and lick whipped topping off each other, then discuss parking arrangements for the House members in DC.  Is any of that classified?  Probably not.

If they met at some swanky Vegas hotel for a whole weekend and wore Batman and Robin outfits while having sex?  No, that's probably not classified either.

If they met in some Baltimore hotel on a work-day for Swalwell, put bacon all over each other and talked about upcoming bills in the House?  Well....that's probably not classified.

So I'm wonder what exactly....out of a couple dozen meetings in hotels....was classified.  In some way, he made this pretty complicated, and there needs to be a House investigation over the guy.  His clearance?  Maybe it should be jerked.  

Observations

 1.  Word over-use for 2020: 'optics'.  I'll bet that I heard this word used at least 7,000 times over 2020.  

2.   On used-car salesmanship, Joe Biden is a rock-solid TEN.  If you had issues with used-car sales people in the past, the coming months probably won't be that enjoyable.  In fact, the less he appears on TV (live)....the better off we might be.

3.  For all the chatter of the 'Russia-hoax' business...NOT one single person has been arrested or detained.

4.  At some point in 2021, I expect a rehab unit in Oregon to start a program to 'detox' people off Antifa operations.  A month-long program will start up where the 'player' will be taken off high-energy drinks, various drugs, and junk food.  At the end, to graduate....they probably will have to hug a guy wearing a MAGA-hat.

5.  'Trust' in the election system?  Probably at a all-time low.  Don't expect anything to resolve this over the next four years.

6.  'Black National Anthem' sung yesterday at the Michigan state-house.  Odds of a Latino 'National Anthem' and Chinese 'National Anthem' being developed by summer of 2021?  I'd give it a 50-50 chance.

7.  A signature audit to be done in Georgia?  Well....it came to be announced there on Monday.  If this goes badly?  No one really says much.

8.   If you use governmental numbers (for the past decade) on ALL deaths, we typically average 2.5 million a year (sometimes going as high as 2.9 million....like in 2019).  As of mid-November, we were still at 2.5 million deaths for 2020 (the Covid year).  The final six weeks? It might go to 2.7 million (we did this number in 2015 and 2016).  

Why the fewer deaths in a Covid-year?  Well....people didn't drive as much.  People didn't frequent bars and get into death-fights.  People didn't get optional surgical procedures and develop infections. 

9.  A key question to ask....would you as a big-name natural gas company go and hire some binge-cocaine 'freak' as a board member?  Companies might not ask a lot of questions over drug habits, but they'd typically look for people that seemed rational and without issues for board jobs.  It just doesn't make a lot of sense to hire up Hunter Biden as a board guy.

10.  Did anyone care to watch the Joe Biden interview after the Electoral College announcement?  This was a C-S*AN covered episode.  What they say....at the peak of the interview and with Joe talking....they had roughly 4,000 people watching.  That's it. 

11. Cleveland Indians dumping 'Indians' name.  Replacement?  Unknown.  Likely use of the 'Indians' name by locals for the next twenty years?  Probably fifty-percent of people will still continue to use the name.  Wouldn't shock me if the team tries to prevent people from entering the stadium wearing their old Indians T-shirts. 

Lincoln and the Newspapers

Between 1860 and 1865....Abraham Lincoln shutdown around 300 newspapers (more or less).

Fact or fiction?

Pretty much completely true.

In this endeavor, Lincoln used the military to sweep through a town or city, and if the newspapers were printing material that was counter to the government plan of war against the south....the US Army would show up and shut them down.

This would continue until the end of the war, and the arrival of the Johnson administration.

Necessity?  Well...here's the thing, it was not in public agreement to conduct the war.  With dismal defeats over the first eighteen months, most journalists saw the 'campaign' as unwinnable and attempted to politicize their discussion in local towns. 

So the news system....for better or worse....failed to work.  Failure of the court system to rectify this?  That's another part of the discussion.

If Lincoln had not accomplished this?

Insurrection would have followed the administration and likely toppled the Lincoln administration.  

This fact being well known?  No.  I suspect if you asked a hundred 'experts' on the Civil War....fewer than ten would bring up this topic.  For some, it ruins the image of Lincoln....with some disturbed that newspapers had to be shutdown....to save the government.  

This coming up now?  Maybe if you asked people....more than a third of society would suggest a shut-down of social media (Facebook, Twitter) being necessary now.  For some....that's a very unpleasant suggestion.  

Ten Things About Me That Changed in 2020

 I sat over the past month and contemplated the landscape of 2020, and how I've changed.  So here are the ten things that I considered 'locked-down' and part of my life now:

1.  I'm absolutely skeptical of politicians (Republican or Democrat). I'd probably trust a drug dealer more....than a DC politician.  Trying to refer to the President as 'Jesus' or 'Satan'....doesn't work any more.  

2.  I really don't need the Sunday political chat shows any longer.  I can' t think of any reason that I'd watch them.  I'd rather watch Japanese monster movies, or 1930 cowboy westerns. 

3.  I'm basically finished with both CNN and Fox News.  If I'm in an airport....I'll find a seat which does not face a TV screen with CNN.  

4.  I can't think of any reason why I'm concerned or interested in BREXIT.  Whether the isle flounders or survives now....makes no difference to me.

5.  I consider the FBI politically compromised, and will not consent to any conversation with them.  The whole top-level (top fifty managers) probably have to be forced-out.  

6.  I seriously can't think of any reason why I'd want to live in Portland, Seattle, Minneapolis, NY City, SF, or LA.  You couldn't even offer me a $150k job in these cities...to get me there. I see these six cities losing 10-percent of their population over the next six to eight years.  In the case of NY City for 2021....it might be half-a-million who walk out.  

7.  I've pretty much accepted that for the remainder of my life....at least while living in Germany.....I'll be wearing a mask for public shopping.  I seriously don't see Covid-19 going away....not in three years....ten years....or even fifty years.  The odds of me getting on a plane for nine hours of flight-time, with a mask?  It probably won't ever happen again. 

8.  I seriously believe that 30-percent of the population need a 50-hour a week physical job (maybe even filling sandbags) to keep them occupied and focused.  Way too many people living in dad's garage or basement, with no real job except delivering pizzas at age 32.  

9.  I really don't need some fake intellectual telling me how foreign affairs works, or how it's a 'art'.  When they appear on TV now....I hit the mute-button fairly quickly.

10.  The last people on Earth, who need to lecture me about ethics or 'truth'....are a bunch of computer geeks with no sense of reality or the world itself.  To this end, I've logged-off Facebook and refuse to participate.  

How 'Fractured' Were We in the 1750/1760 Era?

 This is a topic that is rarely if ever covered in college classes, or via journalists/historians today.  So I'll offer a short introduction to a topic which we ought to be thinking over.

When you look at 13 colony 'states' in this 1750/1760 era....you have to remember that they were 13 different societies that were grouped only by the idea that they'd left Europe, and brought a particular way of thinking along with them.  They were NOT united in any sense.

It would be accurate to say that the thirteen each had a 'company' behind them in the original period, and the company specialized in particular clients.

For example, Maryland was found in 1634 by Lord Baltimore (Cecil Calvert), and his agenda was to find able-bodied and adventurous Catholics....then getting to the region of Maryland.  It would be accurate to say that Catholics had a particular view of the world, of ethics, of society existing in harmony, and some appreciation of arts/education.

Delaware?  It was founded by Peter Minuit (well to do Belgium guy).  He founded the colony with his company (New Sweden) in 1638.  Minuit is noted for arranging a deal to buy the region of Manhattan from the Indians in the region.  For this region of Delaware....the start-up were mostly Swedes.  They weren't aristocratic or intellectual types....they were simply farmers.

Georgia?  It was founded by James Edward Oglethorpe (a Brit), in 1732 (yeah, it comes along a hundred years after Maryland).  The crowd that is brought in?  Mostly from Brit debt-prison situations and notably....the poor of society.  They weren't intellectuals, gifted in science or religion, etc.  They were geared for the rough life, from day one.

It should be noted in the Georgia charter granted by the King....slavery was forbidden.  This stayed this way from 1732 to 1751 (19 years).  The original intent (whether understood by everyone or not), was that this was a small-farm operations state, and would stay that way.  It was also geared to be a front-line zone (against Spanish-held Florida) and if wars were fought....the farmers would be drafted into service.

You can toss in the German regions of Pennsylvania and the Dutch regions of NY state.  

This was not a happy group of like-minded people.  

When you get to the early 1800s....there is essentially one major division.  The Democratic Party has mastered itself in the south (Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, North Carolina, and Maryland).  The rest are leaning more toward a conservative lifestyle (blame it on the religious groups, the Dutch, or the Germans).  

The Constitution that is written?  It is a patchwork of art, that marginally is agreeable among the 13 groups of people. 

As folks maneuver and head west....the two groups are finding it more difficult to live together in harmony.  Individuals from the NE arrive into areas like Indiana and Ohio...wanting taxes collected, and some basic services provided.  Individuals coming from Georgia and the Carolinas tend to want little if any taxation, and the less regulation/law....the better off you were.

From 1800 to 1860....this idea of a unified nation is marginally working.  Fights break out daily in DC between Republicans and Democrats.  Newspapers are hyping people up....talking about about the non-intellectual issues of the southerners, or the conservative lifestyles/rule-making of the northerners.   One wants structure....the other wants marginal control.

We will leave the 1865 period, as a truly fractured nation....that is forced to exist in one single sphere.

As much as people want to dwell or suggest the Civil War was about slavery....it had thousands of other issues, and the idea in the end was to just keep forcing the public to live within one unified nation.

Here in the past hundred years?  The 'fracture' simply continues.  Amusingly enough....around half of the nation has developed into a New England-style Republican structure....wanting less government, less taxation, and less regulation.  This 'creature' is not adored by urbanized areas, and it's more openly preferred in rural regions or lesser populated places.

The other half of the nation is bent on a Democratic model (totally unlike the 1820s situation) which believes in structure, regulation, respect of lifestyles, significant taxation (to pay for significant 'gifts'), and geared more toward urbanization.  

Flip-flop?  Absolutely, over a hundred years....it's exactly opposite of what you'd expect.

Stuck in the middle of this mess?  Blacks, Latinos, businessmen, people heavily in debt, a segment of society that is strongly supporting open-drug use, a segment of society that is strongly opposing open-drug use, and bankers/speculators.

The fact that the NASDAQ company, Tesla, Oracle, and Tesla moving to Texas?  If you'd suggested this twenty years ago....people would have laughed.

People leaving NY City over the past eight months?  There's a belief that it's almost a million, and there might be another million to exit in 2021.

Some are looking at the 'fracture' in a way....that they don't need to accept things as they are, and the safety 'light' has flipped in red (not a positive thing).  In the case of San Francisco?  Between the homeless situation, local taxes, and lack of safety....the fractured crowd don't see any options other than leaving.

So the question is....are we truly fractured enough now....to say that the nation cannot exist as one?  

Behind that question....the other question comes back....was the Civil War only about slavery, and did we fight a war over a serious division which remained after 1865, and continues on to this moment now?

It's something to ponder about.

We were created as a divided nation, and remain a divided nation even to this day.  It was a lot more simple in maintaining this divided 'theatrical production'.....with one-hundred million people.  But to suggest that we can still operate a unified 'theatrical production' with three-hundred million?  Toss in the fact that we now have more than a thousand pages of script which openly divide us daily, and we can't seem to be agreeable?  

Go back and read over the history of Yugoslavia, and how it could not be saved as one single nation.  

This fracture....isn't about to be resolved....not today, nor tomorrow.  

Two Science Stories

 Over the past week, I've been entertained by a fair amount of reading regarding science.

First topic, Covid-19 and it's aerosol connection.

When I joined the Air Force in 1977....there was this training segment that continued for roughly fifteen years over chemical warfare.  

We were continually trained on the idea that when 'war' finally came, there would be chemical warfare as part of the situation.  So we trained with the masks, the standard operating procedures, and the suits.

We were always told....don't worry, we've got tons of the suits, the autoinjector kits, and the special filters.  

All of this chatter and training continued until we got to Desert Storm.  Then oddly, it disappeared.  We were issued a suit but told in the strongest sense....NOT to unpack the suit from the sealed bag.  The filter?  That was given.  

Now they started to talk about aerosol, chem warfare, and the lesser threat.  In this scenario, even if a missile with chemical agent hit within a mile....the warm atmosphere of Saudi Arabia would dissipate the agent in a matter of an hour. Fact or fiction?  Well, you had to take as gospel truth.

Eventually, one day (toward the end of the war) I had this chat with a guy in the camp.  Our sense was that warm/hot climates would be the perfect place to have a chem agent because it could not reach full value.  A cold or cool place was not a friendly place (like upstate Michigan or the UK).  

As the weeks roll by with Covid-19, it's obvious now that the same scenario runs along this path.  The warmer weather in Australia and NZ right now?  It's helping to reduce the infection rate.  Eventually toward April/May....unless the vaccination deal delivers full effect....a higher rate of infection/death....will occur in that region. Here in Germany, with the cooler air....the virus will stay in the air longer.  As May arrives....it'll lessen.

There's not a lot of science to this....it's just the way that a virus liking pro-aerosol situations works.  

The second topic?  A science story came out over mass extinctions on Earth....every 27-million years.  What is said here....a meteor-friendly period arrives, and repeats itself....over and over.  

Between impacts and volcanic eruptions (triggered by the impacts)....animals die off.

The most recent wipe-out?  Roughly seven million years ago....meaning we have around 20 million years to figure the 'game' out, and remove people from Earth.

But this whole discussion begs the question....are most all species of animals we see around us today....developed since seven million years ago?  

Staying around Earth for the next 20-million years?  Why would you?  It would seem that the driving priority is to leave the planet, explore the universe, and unpopulate the planet as the process of destruction repeats once again.