Saturday, 21 January 2023

Explaining Peru's Recent Chaos

 Over the past three months, Peru's stability situation has moved from a page six story....to page one.  There's a lot of news chatter....which seems to be BS....so a moment of introduction:

1.  Peru for the past hundred years, economically and politically....has revolved around mining and bulk agriculture production.  Those key groups maintain the economic stability (control) and whatever political power developed...was 'blessed' by the 'boys-in-the-back-room'.

2.  In modern history....the 'new' Peru came about in 1968 with a coup d'état organized by a number of military officers, led by General Juan Velasco Alvarado.  Their label?  Well....they were going to bring "social progress and integral development".  

To pay for the benefits gained?  The General dumped the owner of the oil industry, and the state took over....using the cash flow for improvements.  It was during this era that major ownership of farm-land ceased, and the gov't started to hand out individual plots to farmers.  

3.  During the 1980s, economic chaos was a daily thing.  The currency reached a point where it was necessary to dump the Sol, and going to the Inti.  At some point...the Inti was going into failure....so they invented another currency out of thin air....called the Neuvo Sol.  In simple terms....nothing much that the government did....resulted in economic stability.

4.  To fix the 1980s issues....the military stepped in again, and drafted up more 'control' measures.  Censorship and a mandated economy (run by the military officers) became the solution.  Behind this....came the 'Shining Path' terrorist organization, which was a big deal for most of a decade.

5.  In the early 1990s...Fujimora came to be the President, and introduced more control measures....favored by the military.  If you were in some opposition group and raising 'hell'....you probably got a visit by the police.  Judges?  They were routinely put into place or 'fired'.  There's hardly a day in this era when you didn't hear about some Shining Path terror action going on.  

6.  Peru goes through the 2000 to 2010 period....with a series of new political figures....who are mostly retreads of the 1990s, and simply re-inventing themselves.  By 2009, the corruption trial over Fujimora has concluded....deciding he was pretty 'bad', and giving the guy 25 years in prison.  The true side to his case?  His police were involved in kidnappings and murder....sponsored by the state.  It was an effort to clear the slate and say that the government could clean up its mess.

7.  In 2011, you had the case where the President came from one party and the congress were Fujimorists in nature.  Impeachment chatter often came up.  They had a unique feature in their Constitution....where you could impeach a President without cause. Yes....nothing illegal or such....or even incompetence.  Based on this threat....President Humala left office (just the threat was enough to clear the house).

8.  The Covid era (2020 on)?  Well....politics ends up as a front page story....day after day.  President Vizcarra....walking in with marginal support in 2021....was 'fired' a week later.  Some folks say it was a coup by Congress, but it really doesn't matter.

9.  So we come to President Castillo.  He was the clear winner of the July 2021 election....no argument.  His party's control in the Peruivan House?  Around 25-percent....so nothing much was being passed, and it was mostly political theatrics for months leading up to December.

Then Castillo does something unique.....he's decided he will 'fire' the House and run the control by mandates from his office.  This set off alarms in the capital, and on the 7th of December....the House removed Castillo.  

What's generally laid out by news media sources is that Castillo is left-wing and the House is right-wing.  

It's safe to say the Castillo appeals to the bulk of lower-class voters (probably 20-to-30 percent of the country), and his promises rely upon a lot of 'gifts' coming down for this society of Peru.

The House vote to remove Castillo?  101-to-6.  

Who became President then?  Well....the VP....a woman by the name of Boluarte.

Castillo?  He's now been arrested/detained....on charges of rebellion.  Yeah....if it sounds like the 6th of January stuff in DC....you might be grinning.

Castillo like a charged-up and thrills-guy, who is anti-capitalist....a bit Trump-like character?  Some Peruvians would gleefully suggest that.  

Where things stand since mid-December?  Boluarte is basically running the country with the support of a right-of-center House and the full support of the military.  On the negative side....if you were to poll the public....probably half the country is shaking its head and in some state of anti-Boluarte behavior (meaning riots are occurring nightly).

A lot of this anger resulting from Castillo's promises?  That's the odd factor....he was absolutely a Marxist and doubling down on nationalist 'gifts' to the public.  He did actually promise a new tax on the rich of Peru....his big aim was to finally nationalize Peru’s mining industry (the real money-maker for the country presently), and there was that idea of writing a whole new constitution.

For reference, the Constitution presently....is the 5th since 1900....freshly drawn up in 1993.  Oddly enough, the key feature delivered out of this....the old Congress (made up of 240 folks) was reduced to 120.  

If you start at 1823....there's been a dozen Constitutions....most barely lasting a decade.  So it'd be truthful to say....things are always evolving there.

If you were looking for a great example how politics is a 'show'....Peru is the place to review things.  

Fires in the capital city, and riot police out in the past week?  Yeah....that's the action going on.  A lot of this is simply Castillo-supporters...disturbed that he didn't get a chance to fire the House and run things on his own.  

The odds that President Boluarte will be gone in three years?  Pretty much guaranteed.  Odds of another Marxist political gimmick already in the works?  Pretty much guaranteed.  

My advice....if you were a high school civics teacher and wanted a project for class development....assign a week of reading over Peru, spend a day talking about the value or lack of value in having a Constitution, and the chaos attached to politics.  

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