Economic Talk/BS

 1.  Are we in a recession?  I asked Grok/AI.

NO, the U.S. is not in a recession as of late September 2026. What Grok suggests?  Well....the economy is still expanding, though growth has slowed from earlier in the year and some forward-looking indicators are mixed. 

Are there personal feelings that suggests we don't believe Grok?  Yeah...probably so.

2.  Are housing sales across the US in the crapper (Sep 2026)?

Yes, existing-home sales are weak and have been sliding.  It does not match the 2008 situation, but if you said the term 'slump'....it fits.

Blame?  If you got a property back five years or more ago....with better mortgage rates....you are staying (long-term).  With current mortgage rates....you have zero interest in getting a better property.

3.  Are certain states in better/worse shape....than others?

This is a odd perception.

Unemployment-wise?  South Dakota, North Dakota, Vermont, Hawaii, New Hampshire, Nebraska....all less than 3-percent.  District of Columbia, California, Oregon, Conn, Michigan, AZ....all greater than 5-percent.  

4. Bank repossessions up?

I watched a podcast last week.....RV trailer yard....a 60-day collection that was coming up on auction....figure around 150 to 200 RV trailers and vehicles.  Guy noted that previous month....they'd had a boat auction.

Trend.....where people thought they had 'money' (capital) and woke up to realize they were too far in debt to keep their 'toys'.

Problem is....the banks will sell the asset....one way or another, but I doubt that they get 100-percent of money they had in the loan 'mess'.

5.  Christmas season economics?

Finance guys say it's better-looking than 2025's numbers.

6.  Used car lots....full?

There's two or three podcasts I watch weekly....which get talking about numbers.  Oddly, largest numbers sitting on lots....in at least a decade.  Fair number are repossessions.

7.  Finally, if you asked me over confidence.....guys who are employed and sure of their 'path'....they are the ones with confidence.  The folks who got laid off once or twice in 2025/2026?  They aren't so sure and more guarded about their savings.