I've sat and watched over the last three months.....probably twenty different news reports talking of the state pension cuts, the real estate going up on the market, and people making the decision to leave California. I've come to four observations.
1. A lot of the state or local employees who had the five-star pension deals are now waking up to realize....yes, the state can cut the pension deal by 50-percent. I watched the affect on one lady (65 years old) who had $49,000 a year coming in, and then got the letter that the cut would be bringing her down to $19,000. Taking that and her social security.....she'd do OK, but not living in California.
So you imagine thousands upon thousands of life-time Californians (some even grew up there in the 1960s), who now look at a marginal pension, high property taxes, and a difficult landscape. Why would you stay?
2. This crowd has taken to an evaluation. Staying there? I have my doubts. I think a wave has started, and as each week passes and people see 'Joe' moved to Vegas....'Jean' moved to Idaho....and 'Marvin' moved to Mississippi....the enthusiasm to take the marginalized pension, and just vacate the state. This means that you will put the house that you've had for twenty-five years or more up, and take the profit to be part of your new lifestyle.
3. So, as these houses come onto the market.....in the first stage.....people will flock in and buy them. A year or so into this wave....more houses are on the market than buyers. People are now sitting on a owned property....living two states away....and finding that selling is next to impossible. Then they discover a year later, that renting is now difficult, unless you take a 40-percent cut on rent.
4. So then you get to the thrilling part of the game.....you have a home....you can't find renters....you can't find buyers, and you got fewer and fewer cops around. You wake up one day to hear from a neighbor that some idiot and his family got in and are living in the house...squatting. You try to get the cops and authorities to react....they won't. Someone starts to collect data....finding 15,000-plus squatters existing in southern California (my guess in five years). The number will be escalating every week.
5. While all of this is going on....companies look at long-term planning and realize the taxation issues, the crime, and the reckless behavior of political folks are making this a lose-lose situation....so they start to planning on leaving as well.
When you and look at the 2025 to 2035 era approaching....California isn't the place where anyone would really want to live. It's a hopeless situation with all those folks planning great retirements five years ago, and now are in some stage of leaving the state to survive.
Tuesday, 10 April 2018
Not Used on Facebook
Sadly, I must admit that of this eight-million membership group whose data was sold off to the evil Cambridge Analytical crowd.....I'm not in the data sold. I kept waiting for the 'message' yesterday from Facebook, and it never came.
So I wasn't in the data group that helped Trump win the election, at least how Cambridge Analytical brags.
Why? I would speculate that while I do have a Facebook account....I just don't click on anything much. In a normal year.....I might click eight to ten times off some story that is featured on Facebook. So my 'click-score' is probably on a scale of one to ten.....near a 'one'.
I expect some folks to be extremely angry over being included in the data sold off to Cambridge Analytical, and being Hillary-supporters.....they might get pretty hostile. Some folks might even have to take an afternoon off from work, to pout at home or discuss matters with with their mental-health doctor. Me? I'm a bit upset that my data wasn't used....but it's not worth drinking a beer over or discussing this with some bartender.
So I wasn't in the data group that helped Trump win the election, at least how Cambridge Analytical brags.
Why? I would speculate that while I do have a Facebook account....I just don't click on anything much. In a normal year.....I might click eight to ten times off some story that is featured on Facebook. So my 'click-score' is probably on a scale of one to ten.....near a 'one'.
I expect some folks to be extremely angry over being included in the data sold off to Cambridge Analytical, and being Hillary-supporters.....they might get pretty hostile. Some folks might even have to take an afternoon off from work, to pout at home or discuss matters with with their mental-health doctor. Me? I'm a bit upset that my data wasn't used....but it's not worth drinking a beer over or discussing this with some bartender.
Saturday, 7 April 2018
End of Facebook Coming?
I noticed in this morning's news that the 'number-two' of Facebook....Sheryl Sandberg....came out in a blunt way and said that if users had the expectation of 'private and personal' data....then they'd have to pay for it.
In her statement, if you read the whole thing....she basically said that Facebook isn't stealing your data....you are intent on inputting the data into the system, and they simply store it for you.
How much would it cost to have private data? Well....she skips that part.
I would imagine that it'd have to be in the range of $4 a month ($50 a year roughly) to get some privilege like this.
The question would be.....would a person pay $50 a year for that private data option? I have my doubts. And if you did create this option.....with half of the Facebook customers using it....how valuable would the remaining data become?
But the other side of this discussion....is whether Democratic-like people would have a problem with Facebook selling their data to GOP-like organizations....or vice-versa? I think 50-percent of the general public would get hyped up and aggravated over the mere suggestion that their data might be in the hands of some Clinton-like figure or Trump-like figure.
All of this leads me to wonder if this becomes a harsh reality for Facebook, and users start to depart or lessen their activity.
In her statement, if you read the whole thing....she basically said that Facebook isn't stealing your data....you are intent on inputting the data into the system, and they simply store it for you.
How much would it cost to have private data? Well....she skips that part.
I would imagine that it'd have to be in the range of $4 a month ($50 a year roughly) to get some privilege like this.
The question would be.....would a person pay $50 a year for that private data option? I have my doubts. And if you did create this option.....with half of the Facebook customers using it....how valuable would the remaining data become?
But the other side of this discussion....is whether Democratic-like people would have a problem with Facebook selling their data to GOP-like organizations....or vice-versa? I think 50-percent of the general public would get hyped up and aggravated over the mere suggestion that their data might be in the hands of some Clinton-like figure or Trump-like figure.
All of this leads me to wonder if this becomes a harsh reality for Facebook, and users start to depart or lessen their activity.
Thursday, 5 April 2018
Warrant Officers Back to the Air Force?
I noticed it got brought up today....there is a Rand Corp study underway, as requested by the Pentagon on a Air Force topic.....bringing back warrant officers.....as enlisted pilots.
Yep, a shocker.
Around 1960, the Air Force concluded a study, and said that new 'super-enlisted' ranks meant that they didn't need Warrant Officers any longer.
The other services? They kept Warrant Officers.
So why bring this up? Well....they are losing pilots every single month. They went through periods like this in the 1980s, the 1990s, but the last five years.....this has been a major problem. A guy will wrap up six to eight years and just say that they aren't happy with the life-style....the stress.....the fake jobs to keep them busy....the deployment schedule.....and the gimmicks built into the promotion cycle.
How would Warrant Officers fit in? My best guess?
First, most of these pilot slots for the unmanned recon vehicles would slide over to strictly Warrant Officers.
Second, I'm guessing that maybe a third-to-half of all tanker jobs would go to Warrant Officers.
Third, I'm also guessing that Warrant Officers would begin to fit into the medical profession as well.
Fourth, it's possible that the intelligence field might allow them in, but I'd expect a massive fight from the senior NCOs when it comes time to discuss billets and actual jobs.
What it typically takes to be a Warrant Officer? A two-year degree, and usually four years of enlisted time.
From the pilot prospective, I think this is the only way to answer the drone-pilot issue in the years ahead. Regular pilots just don't want to be drone-pilots and it's bad enough now that it drives folks to hand their papers over and ask to be let go.
But senior NCOs would fight this tooth and nail.....refusing to allow this creation to occur. You'd basically have some junior NCO.....with an associates degree and six years in.....getting promoted up to a Warrant Officer position and out-ranking folks who'd been his supervisor just weeks before.
So my best guess is that the Air Force will agree to a very strong statement of creating around five-hundred WO position.....all to be strictly operations, or pilot-related....and most all to be related to drone-operations. Maybe five years down the road, after acceptance in the drone world.....maybe the other fields in the Air Force would finally accept Warrant Officers back.
Yep, a shocker.
Around 1960, the Air Force concluded a study, and said that new 'super-enlisted' ranks meant that they didn't need Warrant Officers any longer.
The other services? They kept Warrant Officers.
So why bring this up? Well....they are losing pilots every single month. They went through periods like this in the 1980s, the 1990s, but the last five years.....this has been a major problem. A guy will wrap up six to eight years and just say that they aren't happy with the life-style....the stress.....the fake jobs to keep them busy....the deployment schedule.....and the gimmicks built into the promotion cycle.
How would Warrant Officers fit in? My best guess?
First, most of these pilot slots for the unmanned recon vehicles would slide over to strictly Warrant Officers.
Second, I'm guessing that maybe a third-to-half of all tanker jobs would go to Warrant Officers.
Third, I'm also guessing that Warrant Officers would begin to fit into the medical profession as well.
Fourth, it's possible that the intelligence field might allow them in, but I'd expect a massive fight from the senior NCOs when it comes time to discuss billets and actual jobs.
What it typically takes to be a Warrant Officer? A two-year degree, and usually four years of enlisted time.
From the pilot prospective, I think this is the only way to answer the drone-pilot issue in the years ahead. Regular pilots just don't want to be drone-pilots and it's bad enough now that it drives folks to hand their papers over and ask to be let go.
But senior NCOs would fight this tooth and nail.....refusing to allow this creation to occur. You'd basically have some junior NCO.....with an associates degree and six years in.....getting promoted up to a Warrant Officer position and out-ranking folks who'd been his supervisor just weeks before.
So my best guess is that the Air Force will agree to a very strong statement of creating around five-hundred WO position.....all to be strictly operations, or pilot-related....and most all to be related to drone-operations. Maybe five years down the road, after acceptance in the drone world.....maybe the other fields in the Air Force would finally accept Warrant Officers back.
Brief Chat on Mussolini
My brother brought up an NPR piece that came out over Madeleine Albright's new book.....Fascism: A Warning. NPR had a big interview with her, and the hype here....modern era, new techno gadgets, Trump, America First, etc. All of this in her mind leads to fascism. A bit of this book leads onto this generalized topic of Germany and Italy, Hitler and Mussolini.
While in the same era, on the same military side, and both having met on occasion.....there's a ton of differences between the two countries, and the two leaders. Trying to weave a written piece where both Hitler and Mussolini fit into the same sphere, in my opinion, is a mistake. So this is a chat mostly about Mussolini, who is more or less an unknown to most Americans.
Benito Mussolini is a remarkable guy. Born in northern Italy in 1883....he's the product of a blacksmith, and a local Catholic school teacher. By age eighteen, it's safe to say he's developed into an educated guy....having gone off to a teacher's school, and probably got a pretty safe profession lined up.
He has an issue though....in 1902, he's supposed to (obligated) to go do military service, and he refuses. This leads to Mussolini packing up and running off to Switzerland. Oddly in this brief period, he shifts professions and is a stone-mason. Usually, you'd need a number of years as a helper and no one has ever been able to explain this work period. My guess is that he just helped to move stones around for the actual real stone-mason.
The other thing that he does in this Swiss period of his life....he gets into socialism....to the point that he attends meetings, and is all hyped up about this great political lifestyle.
At some point in 1903....he gets arrested for political action while in Switzerland. They hold him for two weeks in jail (kinda like the Hitler jail episode, just shorter). Then they kick him out to Italy, where he promptly returns to Switzerland. This is short-lived because he gets into trouble again.
In 1904, Italy rewrites some of the rules, and he's given some chance to return to Italy....but he has to serve in the military. This time....he signs up (two-year period). So in 1906, he's all finished with this military business, and seems clear of this radical youth business.....so he's on the path to become a teacher.
This low-period lasts for about three years, and then he's hyped up again....focused on the Socialist Party of Italy, and becoming a regional big-time player of the party. In his mind, he's an intellectual and very smart. No one argues much about this perception.
So we come to the summer of 1914, where World War I will start. The Socialist Party has taken a pro-war position, and Mussolini has taken a anti-war position. A lot of this Mussolini position is based on the Hapsburg Empire, and the belief that it should be broken up into pieces.
Then this odd thing happens. The Socialist Party dumps him. It's not in a pleasant way, and one might suggest that Mussolini is going be pretty hyped up and negative about the party.
By the end of 1914, he's dumped Socialism, and now believes in Nationalism. With this come a totally different view of the war, and he signs up....serving from 1915 to 1917.....rising to the rank of Corporal (yes, the same rank as Hitler).
At this pivotal point in 1917....out of the Army....again an odd thing happens. Mussolini gets a job with MI-5 of the British Secret Service. His new job is to publish and hype a pro-war position. Yep, they are actually paying him a fair wage to hype the war.
The war comes to a closure, but Mussolini continues with his publishing work, and by 1922....a creation of Mussolini's mind comes into play....the 'black-shirts'. He gets 30,000 black-shirts to appear in Rome and demand the resignation of the President of Italy. It's a fairly dramatic two-day period. At this pivotal point, the King of Italy makes this decision.....dumping the President, refusing to declare marshall law, and appoints Mussolini as the new head of state.
Mussolini at this point is a full ten years ahead of Hitler....he's played out the system to dump the government and bring himself into the leadership role. Hitler will make the same decision in the 1922 period....fail, and end up in jail for a period of time. It'll be eight years later before Hitler achieves the same trick, but mostly by votes, instead of brown-shirts.
Over the next twenty-odd years, it's safe to say that the Mussolini period was a cult-like experience and it was almost like some Mel Brooks comedy.
In the early 1930s....Italy goes through an expansion period into northern Africa....mostly a failed campaign but it kept headlines.
Mussolini was supposed to be an expert at everything....music, speeches, art, sports, etc. That was the theme of this twenty-odd year period. In some ways, I suspect that Hitler followed the trend and believed the same tricks would work with Germans.
There is this brief period in 1939-1940, where Italy has not declared itself, and the British seem to think that they can convince Mussolini to be allied with them. This is a make-or-break point, where Mussolini might have gone down in history with statues and positive words. Instead, he signs up with Hitler and the rest is history.
In the summer of 1943, most everything is going negative for Mussolini, and he's asked to come over to the King's palace....where he's 'fired'. Almost twenty years invested as the leader of Italy, and fired. He's placed under detention, and held for several weeks.....until the Germans come to rescue him.
Hitler brings him back up to Germany, and tries to have a talk with him. Since being 'fired'....he's just not the same Mussolini as before. In effect, he's lost his 'mojo'.
He ends up going back and acting as some figure-head leader for the northern half of Italy, but this is not the same Mussolini as before. He's lost enthusiasm, and shows no energy.
For roughly eighteen months, he sits around and is mostly waiting for the bitter end of the war. At some point, with the Americans advancing....he figures he has one brief chance to leave (going to Spain), but is detained and shortly after this....executed by an Italian group.
Mussolini's whole sphere of influence is based on intellectualism....that he's awful smart, and this builds into a cult-like public spectacle. His government could own the bulk of pubic sector devices....run the railway and everything that was necessary for the public. As much as historians want to talk over fascism and his development of the idea.....I like the idea of him having invented Mussolinism....a fake but likeable intellectual cult-government, with flip-flop type values that could easily change from day to day.
Comparing against Hitler? There are bits and pieces where you might be able to compare the two. Mussolini was fairly educated in books and schooling....Hitler much less so. Both did jail-time. Mussolini.
But there is this odd factor about Mussolini which never gets brought up. He writes roughly fifty books. There's even one fictional piece entitled: The Cardinal's Mistress. Some people even go to suggest that if he'd just stayed out of politics....he would have likely been the Ernest Hemingway of Italy.
While in the same era, on the same military side, and both having met on occasion.....there's a ton of differences between the two countries, and the two leaders. Trying to weave a written piece where both Hitler and Mussolini fit into the same sphere, in my opinion, is a mistake. So this is a chat mostly about Mussolini, who is more or less an unknown to most Americans.
Benito Mussolini is a remarkable guy. Born in northern Italy in 1883....he's the product of a blacksmith, and a local Catholic school teacher. By age eighteen, it's safe to say he's developed into an educated guy....having gone off to a teacher's school, and probably got a pretty safe profession lined up.
He has an issue though....in 1902, he's supposed to (obligated) to go do military service, and he refuses. This leads to Mussolini packing up and running off to Switzerland. Oddly in this brief period, he shifts professions and is a stone-mason. Usually, you'd need a number of years as a helper and no one has ever been able to explain this work period. My guess is that he just helped to move stones around for the actual real stone-mason.
The other thing that he does in this Swiss period of his life....he gets into socialism....to the point that he attends meetings, and is all hyped up about this great political lifestyle.
At some point in 1903....he gets arrested for political action while in Switzerland. They hold him for two weeks in jail (kinda like the Hitler jail episode, just shorter). Then they kick him out to Italy, where he promptly returns to Switzerland. This is short-lived because he gets into trouble again.
In 1904, Italy rewrites some of the rules, and he's given some chance to return to Italy....but he has to serve in the military. This time....he signs up (two-year period). So in 1906, he's all finished with this military business, and seems clear of this radical youth business.....so he's on the path to become a teacher.
This low-period lasts for about three years, and then he's hyped up again....focused on the Socialist Party of Italy, and becoming a regional big-time player of the party. In his mind, he's an intellectual and very smart. No one argues much about this perception.
So we come to the summer of 1914, where World War I will start. The Socialist Party has taken a pro-war position, and Mussolini has taken a anti-war position. A lot of this Mussolini position is based on the Hapsburg Empire, and the belief that it should be broken up into pieces.
Then this odd thing happens. The Socialist Party dumps him. It's not in a pleasant way, and one might suggest that Mussolini is going be pretty hyped up and negative about the party.
By the end of 1914, he's dumped Socialism, and now believes in Nationalism. With this come a totally different view of the war, and he signs up....serving from 1915 to 1917.....rising to the rank of Corporal (yes, the same rank as Hitler).
At this pivotal point in 1917....out of the Army....again an odd thing happens. Mussolini gets a job with MI-5 of the British Secret Service. His new job is to publish and hype a pro-war position. Yep, they are actually paying him a fair wage to hype the war.
The war comes to a closure, but Mussolini continues with his publishing work, and by 1922....a creation of Mussolini's mind comes into play....the 'black-shirts'. He gets 30,000 black-shirts to appear in Rome and demand the resignation of the President of Italy. It's a fairly dramatic two-day period. At this pivotal point, the King of Italy makes this decision.....dumping the President, refusing to declare marshall law, and appoints Mussolini as the new head of state.
Mussolini at this point is a full ten years ahead of Hitler....he's played out the system to dump the government and bring himself into the leadership role. Hitler will make the same decision in the 1922 period....fail, and end up in jail for a period of time. It'll be eight years later before Hitler achieves the same trick, but mostly by votes, instead of brown-shirts.
Over the next twenty-odd years, it's safe to say that the Mussolini period was a cult-like experience and it was almost like some Mel Brooks comedy.
In the early 1930s....Italy goes through an expansion period into northern Africa....mostly a failed campaign but it kept headlines.
Mussolini was supposed to be an expert at everything....music, speeches, art, sports, etc. That was the theme of this twenty-odd year period. In some ways, I suspect that Hitler followed the trend and believed the same tricks would work with Germans.
There is this brief period in 1939-1940, where Italy has not declared itself, and the British seem to think that they can convince Mussolini to be allied with them. This is a make-or-break point, where Mussolini might have gone down in history with statues and positive words. Instead, he signs up with Hitler and the rest is history.
In the summer of 1943, most everything is going negative for Mussolini, and he's asked to come over to the King's palace....where he's 'fired'. Almost twenty years invested as the leader of Italy, and fired. He's placed under detention, and held for several weeks.....until the Germans come to rescue him.
Hitler brings him back up to Germany, and tries to have a talk with him. Since being 'fired'....he's just not the same Mussolini as before. In effect, he's lost his 'mojo'.
He ends up going back and acting as some figure-head leader for the northern half of Italy, but this is not the same Mussolini as before. He's lost enthusiasm, and shows no energy.
For roughly eighteen months, he sits around and is mostly waiting for the bitter end of the war. At some point, with the Americans advancing....he figures he has one brief chance to leave (going to Spain), but is detained and shortly after this....executed by an Italian group.
Mussolini's whole sphere of influence is based on intellectualism....that he's awful smart, and this builds into a cult-like public spectacle. His government could own the bulk of pubic sector devices....run the railway and everything that was necessary for the public. As much as historians want to talk over fascism and his development of the idea.....I like the idea of him having invented Mussolinism....a fake but likeable intellectual cult-government, with flip-flop type values that could easily change from day to day.
Comparing against Hitler? There are bits and pieces where you might be able to compare the two. Mussolini was fairly educated in books and schooling....Hitler much less so. Both did jail-time. Mussolini.
But there is this odd factor about Mussolini which never gets brought up. He writes roughly fifty books. There's even one fictional piece entitled: The Cardinal's Mistress. Some people even go to suggest that if he'd just stayed out of politics....he would have likely been the Ernest Hemingway of Italy.
Wednesday, 4 April 2018
The Trump Border Idea
Over the past fifteen years, there's been two deployments of US troops along the US and Mexico border. For the most part....neither achieved anything but headlines.
The Bush deployment involved 6,000 national guard troops.
The Obama deployment in 2010? It involved around 1,500 troops....mostly to collect data and use new recon assets.
Why the failure?
I tend to view the lack of number to the overall success expected. In my view, the 1,954 miles would probably require a minimum of 35,000 to 45,000 troops to maintain an around-the-clock presence. This would mean at least six different installations along the border, and a hefty amount of recon usage. And no...I'm not talking about temporary headline gimmicks like 10,000 National Guard troops for four months.
My suggestion would be that you go and offer up a new service to the US military....'Guard Patrol'. Offer a chance to the Army and Air Force members to cross over, and assign a full-time job to around 35,000 active duty personnel....with only one single function....guarding the border.
Treating this as a temp deal and repeating the Bush/Obama failures? Well....yeah, there's pretty good odds that this is a another screw-up in the making.
The Bush deployment involved 6,000 national guard troops.
The Obama deployment in 2010? It involved around 1,500 troops....mostly to collect data and use new recon assets.
Why the failure?
I tend to view the lack of number to the overall success expected. In my view, the 1,954 miles would probably require a minimum of 35,000 to 45,000 troops to maintain an around-the-clock presence. This would mean at least six different installations along the border, and a hefty amount of recon usage. And no...I'm not talking about temporary headline gimmicks like 10,000 National Guard troops for four months.
My suggestion would be that you go and offer up a new service to the US military....'Guard Patrol'. Offer a chance to the Army and Air Force members to cross over, and assign a full-time job to around 35,000 active duty personnel....with only one single function....guarding the border.
Treating this as a temp deal and repeating the Bush/Obama failures? Well....yeah, there's pretty good odds that this is a another screw-up in the making.
Tuesday, 3 April 2018
Trump and this Military Option at the Border
First, as much as one might sit and think the Border Patrol has the strength to monitor the border.....they don't. They'd probably have to add at least 50,000 additional personnel to their manpower to reach some reasonable stage of border control.
Second, there's some people talking of the idea that a 'peace-dividend' might come out of this South Korea-North Korea talks, and that the 37,000 troops in South Korea might not be necessary. I think that's a minimum of three years away, but if some treaty occurred....then you'd have 37,000 troops coming back to the US. What exactly do you want to do with them?
Third, if you were of the mind to cross the border, and got to the Trump-fence or Trump-wall.....maybe you might still have enthusiasm to cross. If you figure in the odds of three-hundred Army guys along a sixty-mile area that you were attempting to cross....the odds are against you.
Fourth, there's all these recon assets that the Army would bring with them. It would reshuffle the whole border crossing strategy.
There are negatives to this idea....for example, we aren't talking about 3,000 Army personnel. We also aren't talking about the Border Patrol going away. I also don't think the Border Patrol would like competition.
Second, there's some people talking of the idea that a 'peace-dividend' might come out of this South Korea-North Korea talks, and that the 37,000 troops in South Korea might not be necessary. I think that's a minimum of three years away, but if some treaty occurred....then you'd have 37,000 troops coming back to the US. What exactly do you want to do with them?
Third, if you were of the mind to cross the border, and got to the Trump-fence or Trump-wall.....maybe you might still have enthusiasm to cross. If you figure in the odds of three-hundred Army guys along a sixty-mile area that you were attempting to cross....the odds are against you.
Fourth, there's all these recon assets that the Army would bring with them. It would reshuffle the whole border crossing strategy.
There are negatives to this idea....for example, we aren't talking about 3,000 Army personnel. We also aren't talking about the Border Patrol going away. I also don't think the Border Patrol would like competition.
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