What Exactly is the Fed?

The Fed (the Federal Reserve System) was created toward the end of December 1913 (Wilson's era)....to be the central banking of America.

It's safe to say that the 1907 'panic' was the wave to create the Fed.

What was the 'panic'?  In mid-October 1907, for a three-week period....Wall Street fell apart, and stocks lost around 50-percent of their value.  There was a recession around this period, and it helped to create this fear of banks failing.  Yes, folks got real nervous and ran off to the banks to get their money, and found that banks simply didn't have the cash like they were promised.

Yeah, I know.....1907 never gets brought up much.  Kinda odd, I admit....that 22 years later....the same 'panic' occurs.

Was there an integral part to the 1907 'panic'?  Well....yes.  You see some folks felt they could arrange things and take up ownership of copper (to corner the market, as they say).  Silly, you might say today, but this was a big deal in 1907.

Congress sat and talked about this episode, and what they wanted.....more or less....was a watch-dog.  Six years went into this talk, and what you got was the Federal Reserve Act.  There were three jobs here...(1) moderating long-term interest rates for the government, (2) ensuring employment stayed stable, and  (3) keeping prices throughout the economy.....stable.

Some folks will say that the Fed has done a great job.  Some folks (particularly economists) will say they've often failed at their job.

The Fed efforts in 1929 and decade after the Wall Street collapse?  Most historians will say that the Fed wandered around and failed on two of the three jobs (suggesting they did keep prices stable).

So here we are....Trump on their case, with a recession on the horizon.   He expects the Fed to accomplish their act on the three requirements.  Some folks think that the Fed is there mostly to protect the banks now, and the private American is a lesser priority.  Holding the Fed to do their job?  Well....the President can't really fire them, and Congress can't really monitor or direct them.  So it's like a fourth element of the government (after the Supreme Court, the President, and Congress).

If the Fed refuses to do their job now?  Recession will be a harsh matter, and Trump will blame them every step of the way.  The Fed will mostly grin over the matter and laugh.  The public?  They may reach a point where the Fed has to be totally gutted by the House, and a whole new mechanism might have to be developed.  The sad thing?  It'll be the same three requirements as listed in 1913....assigned to them yet again.

The Problem With a Democratic Candidate Dealing with the Recession

So you write up this scenario.  Trump enters 2020, with a recession.  You need an angle to counter him and to gain your respect for dealing with the recession.  The program?

Cash for clunker program? 

Gutting the budget by ten-percent and promising to cut taxes (while swearing that you are a Democrat)?

Give some tax advantages to US companies?

Telling people you can force the Fed to act?

Swearing to folks that no Green program will occur and inflict massive cost upon Americans?

Convincing the general public that you can get stock prices back up, with your policies?

Which Democrat from 15-odd characters has that capability to convince you?  Warren?  Sanders? 

Yeah, it's a bit crazy to imagine this scenario, and some Democrat from the group who has this ability to act like a Republican for four years. 

The Snack Story

When I bought my Lufthansa tickets (Frankfurt to Dubrovnik)....it noted that you'd get a 'snack' going and coming.

Generally, this might mean a sandwich or decent item....with a Coke. 

So the Stewardess came along and handed out these....a crispy candy bar, and a Coke. 

That was it.

For rating 'snacks'....on a scale of one to ten....this was probably a '2'.  But that's the thing about airlines today, they've come to realize that folks aren't happy anyway, so why spend any real money on a stupid snack.  I doubt if Lufthansa spent more than 35 cents for the 'snack'.

But this also tells the story of why so many people go and buy things to take along on flights....like apples, Pop-Tarts, Milk Duds, etc. 

Cross-Blade Encounter

The only place where you will find the Smart Cross-Blade....is in hot climate places, like Dubrovnik.  The hotel I stayed at....had one for daily rental.

It was made for one single year (2002), and only comes in the 599 cc range (71 hp).

It's rare that you come across these now. 

Smart didn't really know how to sell the car, or to market it.  No, there is no top to it, and that might be 50-percent of the problem why it never caught on.  No windshield?  That is correct.  No doors?  Yep.  Top speed?  Around 130 kph (80 mph).  No trunk?  Correct, that space in the back is for the engine.  For beaches or sand?  No.....it's a rear wheel drive situation.

Maybe if this had been manufactured in Brazil, and sold for 7k dollars.....it would have been an interesting car to keep in the garage and use on weekends.  The chief problem I saw in 2002 when it came out....they were talking 15,000 dollars (European-made and added cost on labor). 

The Insignificance of Google and the 2020 Election

Based on commentary, there is a good bit of speculation that Google's intellectual leadership crowd intends to play into the election and help defeat Trump.

I've sat and pondered over this a good bit in the last month, and come to this one conclusion....it really won't matter much.

Why?

First, between social media and the news media....they've both reached a point where trust and respect by the average American is that of a used car salesman.  Whatever the nightly 'talker' says on the network news piece from ABC or CBS....really doesn't matter.  Even if Google sensationalizes the piece....who really believes Google? 

Second, after all that chatter of Russian collusion....there's this general belief by the public that it's all one big fake soap opera....which leads back to either Brennan (the former CIA chief) or Hillary's campaign staff.  An attempt by Google traffic or creations to create a new Russian collusion?  No one would believe it.

Third, there's this strong possibility that Google will be thrust into a utility status, and that the various mechanisms of the organization will have to go in front of either a federal utility group or fifty state utility commissions.  It'd basically create a bigger mess for Google to handle.

So all this effort and chatter?  Worthless?  Yes.  That's the amusing part of the story.  Instead of working on their product and profits.....they've wasted all this on a political agenda. 

The 'Used Car Salesman' Chatter

I was watching a YouTube piece today and someone got around to talking over previous presidents, and they came to President Obama.  Their identifier for him?  He seemed to them (in 2008's election period).....to be like a used car salesman.

I sat there for a while and thought about the comment, and the 2008 period.  That was the weirdest election period that I've seen in fifty-odd years.

I identified Obama more as a insurance salesman, than a used car salesman (maybe because I've rarely dealt with used car salesmen.  It always seemed like you got a whole bunch of talk, which led to more talk and promises, and whatever was the end-product.....just never seemed to amount to much. 

But then you gaze at the competition for the primary....wife of some former President who was a Senator with no real accomplishments over eight years. 

Then you gaze over a the Republican side.  You had some former naval officer who bluffed his way through into politics.  There was the 'Mitt'.....who never seemed to be doing anything other than speeches.  You had the 'Huck' who was more suited to be a radio talk show host, than President.  And then you had Ron Paul.....who was a 180-degree flip-over from Bernie Sanders. 

But back to the identifier of a used car salesman.  It's a negative term.  People hate dealing with this crowd, and the older you are.....the worse it gets.  There are certain professions like this now.  Televangelist....for example....represent another identifier that folks can't stand.  School principals are getting up to the point of being continually disliked.  TV news journalists or 'anchors' are another group who are reaching the point of being joked about continually.  CEOs for technology companies are getting a reputation similar to used car dealers. 

The amusing thing is that identifiers are becoming common now, and we all seem to relate to it. 

Explaining Greta Thunberg to an American

Prior to the fall of 2018, no one had really ever heard of Greta.  Then, the 15-year old Swedish teenager came out with this 'strike' idea in Swedish schools over climate change, global warming, and global warming.  Using social media, she advanced the idea of Friday at noon.....kids getting up and striking, for the remainder of the day (Swedish schools typically run to 1:30 PM.  Signs were made up....slogans devised.....with Swedish schools acting in a paralyzed state.  Yes, adults basically couldn't establish authority.

So it spread.

By January, via social media....it arrived in Germany and various European countries.  Same deal.....leave classes at noon and strike.

The Germans loved this sort of thing, and journalists flocked to it.  School authorities?  Powerless.

So Greta sailed out this week of Europe and is heading to the east coast of the US.....mostly because flying would have used more carbon (she actually said this.....but engineers have proven that the sailboat will use more carbon for her, than flying in a regular plane.

She believes that her presence will flip US students over to her message......striking on Fridays.

The fact that she has Aspergers?  Well.....no one in the German journalist group will mention this, but yes.....she has Aspergers.

A problem?  Well....if you were an innovation or technology company, it might be positive to have a boss or leader like that.  In a religion or political group?  No.  You don't want a one-sided person running a political group.  As for someone trying to run some kid's group on climate change?  No, it's probably not going to be some super-positive idea.

But here's the curious thing.....when you approach some American kids and suggest a strike at noon on Fridays.....most school boards will step in and send a letter to the parents that either the kid attends or a officer will come to the house and take actions.  Failing a kid in various classes if he were to miss dozen Friday afternoons?  Some schools would take this action and send a signal.

The other possible action is that some kids....especially university students.....will begin to question Greta on her facts, and challenge her.  I have my doubts that she'll be in the US for more than ten days, and quietly be sailed back to Sweden.

So I'm reminded of the child crusades of 1212.  There are two legendary figures (Nicholas of Germany, and Stephen of Cloyes, France) who led Greta-like antics in 1212.  Neither are exactly proven as fact, or non-fact.

In the case of Stephen (the French kid).....he claimed that he had a letter written and signed by Jesus, and addressed to the King (Phillip II).  For some reason, the King just didn't believe the Jesus letter was authentic.   Stephen kinda claimed that he was going to lead a crowd to Holy Land and be crusaders....saving Europe, the King, France, and Christianity.  At some point, he had 30,000 idiots lined up and following him south through France.  By winter, the group thinned out, and the whole crusade business and Stephen.....just disappeared.

In the case of Nicholas, it ran the same way.....but without the letter from Jesus.  This child group was going off to fight the crusades and thousands of kids flocked to the group.  By winter, their whole mission had dissolved up.

It's argued over the two kids, and if either is true, or maybe just one single story in itself.  But the more you look at it.....if true, both kids were likely Aspergers or with paranoid schizophrenia.   

So prepare for the Greta show, and the news folks to hype it up.