Trump made the Twitter comment today, and I sat and reflected upon it.
The 2012 election cycle was one of the more comical episodes in Republican history.
You basically had Mitt Romney (who marginally had public appeal), Ron Paul (for the oddball Republicans), Buddy Roemer (for southern Republicans), Jon Huntsman (for the intellectual Republicans), Rick Santorum (for the church-going Republicans), Rick Perry (for Texas Republicans), Herman Cain (for the Republicans just wanting a wild card in the election, and Michele Bachmann (for northern crowd who just want something really crazy to happen).
I think most Republicans out of the south just laughed over the convention win by Romney, and marginally felt compelled to vote for the guy. He was for all purposes, the convenient 'loser'.
Could Mitt have won? He would have had to go aggressive and really say a lot of criticism over President Obama. It wasn't going to happen. Trump? He didn't hesitate President Obama, Hillary Clinton, and just about anyone who dumped on him (include some Republicans). He pushes back....something that you haven't seen a Republican do in fifty years.
'Nice guy' status for Romney? Well....that's the odd thing. He was always cut-throat on buying cheap companies and cutting them up to resell later, with no heart for the employees. But he couldn't bring that same cut-throat attitude to the political scene.
On this, Trump is right.
Sunday, 6 October 2019
Crimes, Misdemeanors, or Bad Moral Judgement?
As all this Ukraine business unfolds, it's worth standing back to admire what happened, and if anyone really committed a crime.
Is Hunter Biden guilty of any real crime? If he walked in and told Dad (then the VP and chief of handling Ukraine special projects) about his company being formed and getting an inside to the Ukraine natural gas industry? That's not a crime.
If Hunter Biden's team was successful and part of the reason that the Ukraine folks had a $1.8-billion 'gift' from the US to do exploratory drilling? That's not a crime.
If Hunter Biden got a seat on the board of this company, while being unqualified for the role? That's not a crime. I admit....it is stupid on business practices.
If Hunter Biden was paid $50k a month to be on the board? That's not a crime.
As long as Hunter Biden paid US taxes on that and any substance-allowance while in the Ukraine....that was not a crime.
If none of the money was really used for gas exploration? That's not a crime, unless the Ukraine itself wants to say something about the lack of progress.
If Hunter Biden did 'wash' any funding before transferring it back into the US? That might be a crime.
For Joe Biden to arrange the $1.8-billion and his son got awarded the board job as part of this? Unless there's an email to say he knew the son would get the job if they paid the money, that's not a crime.....but it very poor moral behavior on Joe's part.
If the Ukraine Attorney General tried to look at the company, Hunter's role in it, and got fired because of Joe Biden's pressure? That's not a crime, but it's serious poor judgement and bad moral bearing.
If Nancy Pelosi's son had a business, and he got into the Ukraine natural gas business....that's not a crime. If Nancy helped in some fashion to get him that role? That's not a crime, but it's bad judgement.
So here's the thing....if this all get dragged into some impeachment process....unless these 'kids' did something stupid and conducted money-laundering or never reported their income correctly.....they will all skate free. For the parents? It's poor judgement, but I doubt if anyone can be called into court.
Onto the $10-million given to Hillary Clinton and the Clinton Foundation. The money actually came from a Ukrainian Oligarch. Anything illegal about this money? No. It does suggest some funny connection and beg questions, but the guy was free to donate to the Foundation.
The final question left....was it a crime to ask the Ukrainian government to investigate how this all occurred? There is no law that says you can only talk/discuss x-matters between a President and some other international figure. If Trump wanted to call and discuss his favorite Lego 'gift', the shape of women's boobs, or the Mexican Wall with the Pope....he's free to do so. Bad moral judgement? Maybe, but then you'd open up a can of worms on a dozen things that President Obama did, with bad judgement as well.
Is Hunter Biden guilty of any real crime? If he walked in and told Dad (then the VP and chief of handling Ukraine special projects) about his company being formed and getting an inside to the Ukraine natural gas industry? That's not a crime.
If Hunter Biden's team was successful and part of the reason that the Ukraine folks had a $1.8-billion 'gift' from the US to do exploratory drilling? That's not a crime.
If Hunter Biden got a seat on the board of this company, while being unqualified for the role? That's not a crime. I admit....it is stupid on business practices.
If Hunter Biden was paid $50k a month to be on the board? That's not a crime.
As long as Hunter Biden paid US taxes on that and any substance-allowance while in the Ukraine....that was not a crime.
If none of the money was really used for gas exploration? That's not a crime, unless the Ukraine itself wants to say something about the lack of progress.
If Hunter Biden did 'wash' any funding before transferring it back into the US? That might be a crime.
For Joe Biden to arrange the $1.8-billion and his son got awarded the board job as part of this? Unless there's an email to say he knew the son would get the job if they paid the money, that's not a crime.....but it very poor moral behavior on Joe's part.
If the Ukraine Attorney General tried to look at the company, Hunter's role in it, and got fired because of Joe Biden's pressure? That's not a crime, but it's serious poor judgement and bad moral bearing.
If Nancy Pelosi's son had a business, and he got into the Ukraine natural gas business....that's not a crime. If Nancy helped in some fashion to get him that role? That's not a crime, but it's bad judgement.
So here's the thing....if this all get dragged into some impeachment process....unless these 'kids' did something stupid and conducted money-laundering or never reported their income correctly.....they will all skate free. For the parents? It's poor judgement, but I doubt if anyone can be called into court.
Onto the $10-million given to Hillary Clinton and the Clinton Foundation. The money actually came from a Ukrainian Oligarch. Anything illegal about this money? No. It does suggest some funny connection and beg questions, but the guy was free to donate to the Foundation.
The final question left....was it a crime to ask the Ukrainian government to investigate how this all occurred? There is no law that says you can only talk/discuss x-matters between a President and some other international figure. If Trump wanted to call and discuss his favorite Lego 'gift', the shape of women's boobs, or the Mexican Wall with the Pope....he's free to do so. Bad moral judgement? Maybe, but then you'd open up a can of worms on a dozen things that President Obama did, with bad judgement as well.
Friday, 4 October 2019
Bernie, Health, and the Question Over Replacement
First, Bernie isn't in dire health condition. Bernie has a blockage, and had two stents 'installed'.
Doctors will say that stents are a simple procedure now, and you might walk out of the hospital on the same day of the procedure. Generally, most people then get this lecture by a doctor that they are either eating in a way that is not healthy, smoking, drinking too much, or living a lifestyle with too much stress. It doesn't mean the lecture is BS or worthless....it's just how doctors treat this.
The fact that Bernie is 78 years old? Well....here's the harsh reality. Bernie doesn't smoke, and I would assume that he's mostly a coffee or soda guy. So the suggestion here is that this presidential election stuff is triggering stress that he really doesn't need.
Him retire? Zero chance of that.
The stents simply telling you of a future problem with more chest pains? Maybe.
If he were to have a heart attack and resign or be unable to act as a Senator? The Governor does not have the authority to appoint someone. He has the authority to call an election....within 90 days of the seat being empty. The current Governor? A Republican.
The odds of this scenario playing out? In a normal political year, I'd say less than 10-percent chance. However, the last twelve months have been weird in the US, and it wouldn't shock me if suddenly you had Senator with a heart attack, and some race on to replace the guy.
Doctors will say that stents are a simple procedure now, and you might walk out of the hospital on the same day of the procedure. Generally, most people then get this lecture by a doctor that they are either eating in a way that is not healthy, smoking, drinking too much, or living a lifestyle with too much stress. It doesn't mean the lecture is BS or worthless....it's just how doctors treat this.
The fact that Bernie is 78 years old? Well....here's the harsh reality. Bernie doesn't smoke, and I would assume that he's mostly a coffee or soda guy. So the suggestion here is that this presidential election stuff is triggering stress that he really doesn't need.
Him retire? Zero chance of that.
The stents simply telling you of a future problem with more chest pains? Maybe.
If he were to have a heart attack and resign or be unable to act as a Senator? The Governor does not have the authority to appoint someone. He has the authority to call an election....within 90 days of the seat being empty. The current Governor? A Republican.
The odds of this scenario playing out? In a normal political year, I'd say less than 10-percent chance. However, the last twelve months have been weird in the US, and it wouldn't shock me if suddenly you had Senator with a heart attack, and some race on to replace the guy.
Thursday, 3 October 2019
Priorities That Changed
Having grown up in the South during the 1960s and 1970s....it's an odd thing to admit today that you never thought much about a defensive posture for your farm or home.
Among my top ten worries in 1975 (being 16)?
1. Snakes
2. Lightning storms causing a tree to fall upon the house
3. Another 1973 gas crisis
4. A hailstorm destroying the crop of soy-beans
5. Ministers going beyond noon on some hyped-up sermon
6. Tornado watches
7. Tornado warnings
8. Wild dogs
9. Mad bulls
10. Brakes going out on the 20-year-old farm truck
Nowhere in that list, do you see a reason for anyone to worry about meth-heads, home break-in's, home invasions, paranoid schizophrenic folks, or physical violence (other than the mad bull thing).
After the 1990s, when I'd come to visit or just look at news reports from the region....you'd notice this unusual event, or this meth-head attacking someone. Murders started to be noted for crazy reasons.
So in this past decade, people evaluate their situation (even in a rural setting) and they go to be armed.
Cops like the AR-15. Private citizens also like the AR-15. Chief reasons? It's light, effective, easily to reload, and doesn't fail. I emphasize the 'doesn't fail' term....because if awakened at 2 AM....if confronted, you just don't want a weapon to fail.
Shotguns? We've gone in the past thirty years way beyond the standard double-barreled shotgun. Eight shotgun rounds in a pump-action shotgun? More than enough.
You look at the crazy story from central Georgia from August....three young gentlemen at 4 AM, on a mission to do a home-invasion routine. All three dead now. The story on helps to sell more weapons.
Whether the political agenda folks grasp it or not....the landscape is simply not the 1960s or 1970s. It's a rough world, and some people are living on the last twenty-four hours of their life, whether they like to admit that or not. If you had a juvenile or two in the house and running a bit on the wild side....you might want to have a last prayer for the kid each morning. Things have changed.
Among my top ten worries in 1975 (being 16)?
1. Snakes
2. Lightning storms causing a tree to fall upon the house
3. Another 1973 gas crisis
4. A hailstorm destroying the crop of soy-beans
5. Ministers going beyond noon on some hyped-up sermon
6. Tornado watches
7. Tornado warnings
8. Wild dogs
9. Mad bulls
10. Brakes going out on the 20-year-old farm truck
Nowhere in that list, do you see a reason for anyone to worry about meth-heads, home break-in's, home invasions, paranoid schizophrenic folks, or physical violence (other than the mad bull thing).
After the 1990s, when I'd come to visit or just look at news reports from the region....you'd notice this unusual event, or this meth-head attacking someone. Murders started to be noted for crazy reasons.
So in this past decade, people evaluate their situation (even in a rural setting) and they go to be armed.
Cops like the AR-15. Private citizens also like the AR-15. Chief reasons? It's light, effective, easily to reload, and doesn't fail. I emphasize the 'doesn't fail' term....because if awakened at 2 AM....if confronted, you just don't want a weapon to fail.
Shotguns? We've gone in the past thirty years way beyond the standard double-barreled shotgun. Eight shotgun rounds in a pump-action shotgun? More than enough.
You look at the crazy story from central Georgia from August....three young gentlemen at 4 AM, on a mission to do a home-invasion routine. All three dead now. The story on helps to sell more weapons.
Whether the political agenda folks grasp it or not....the landscape is simply not the 1960s or 1970s. It's a rough world, and some people are living on the last twenty-four hours of their life, whether they like to admit that or not. If you had a juvenile or two in the house and running a bit on the wild side....you might want to have a last prayer for the kid each morning. Things have changed.
Subtracting Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders From the Race
Based on Bernie's health stuff and Joe Biden's Ukraine problem....I would suggest that both are 'gone'.
We are four months out from the Iowa caucus, which has some impact on the whole race. If you remove those two....it's really a different race. It's mostly all Warren.
Robert Francis (Beto) is spinning his wheels, as is Mayor Pete (forget about blacks voting for him). Booker is running out of money, and Senator Harris hasn't really thrilled that many Democrats.
So what started out in the spring of 2019 with almost 20 candidates....we are basically down to just one single serious candidate? Yeah.
It's bad enough that some strategists are putting the idea out there that former NY mayor Bloomberg....might announce something in November, and suddenly get into the race. The fact that he'll be 78 years old in Feb 2020? Well, that is another minor issue.
Unless something happens to split the vote up....I think by the 3rd of March....Super-Tuesday, it's finished. If Warren wins all of these, there's not much need to get excited or thrilled over the primary season. Fewer voters turning out after 3 March? That's my prediction. This will hurt in states like Ohio and Florida.
We are four months out from the Iowa caucus, which has some impact on the whole race. If you remove those two....it's really a different race. It's mostly all Warren.
Robert Francis (Beto) is spinning his wheels, as is Mayor Pete (forget about blacks voting for him). Booker is running out of money, and Senator Harris hasn't really thrilled that many Democrats.
So what started out in the spring of 2019 with almost 20 candidates....we are basically down to just one single serious candidate? Yeah.
It's bad enough that some strategists are putting the idea out there that former NY mayor Bloomberg....might announce something in November, and suddenly get into the race. The fact that he'll be 78 years old in Feb 2020? Well, that is another minor issue.
Unless something happens to split the vote up....I think by the 3rd of March....Super-Tuesday, it's finished. If Warren wins all of these, there's not much need to get excited or thrilled over the primary season. Fewer voters turning out after 3 March? That's my prediction. This will hurt in states like Ohio and Florida.
Wednesday, 2 October 2019
The Numbers Matter
I like statistics because they often tell a story.
If your neighbor was brutally killed in 2018.....he was five times more likely to die from knife attack, than a rifle bullet.
The FBI put the statistics for 2018 in the last couple of days, and it's an amazing story.
1,515 people died from knives in America....while only 297 died from a rifle round, for all of 2018.
In fact, if you use 2017 data.....almost a quarter of rifle round victims were carved off the 2017 situation compared to 2018.
So here's the real shocker.....more than a hundred more people died by baseball bats/blunt objects in 2018, than by a rifle round.
But let's dig deeper. If you collect data and look purely at metropolitan or urbanized areas....there were 14,428 murders or manslaughter episodes out of the total across the entire US of 16,214. Wanna look at the two other areas (small towns, or rural areas)? 711 murders were in small towns, and 899 in rural areas. So if you live inside the beltway of some urbanized area.....your odds of murder go up.
Murders in Alabama for 2018? Just two qualified for outright murder....both by pistols.
Murders in Idaho total for 2018? 32. But only 16 were by rifle or pistol. Four died by knife, and one by fist or kicking of feet.
From California? 24 died by rifle, but here's the shocker....252 were by knives. Ten times the number as rifles.
So all this anti-gun chatter focused? No.....it lacks focus to a great extent. It'd be more effective to prevent murders in highly urbanized areas by having stop-and-check police blockages, and ask people to step out of the car while we examine the contents. Confiscation of knives in public places? Why not?
Our total focus, based on the numbers....ought to anti-murder.
If your neighbor was brutally killed in 2018.....he was five times more likely to die from knife attack, than a rifle bullet.
The FBI put the statistics for 2018 in the last couple of days, and it's an amazing story.
1,515 people died from knives in America....while only 297 died from a rifle round, for all of 2018.
In fact, if you use 2017 data.....almost a quarter of rifle round victims were carved off the 2017 situation compared to 2018.
So here's the real shocker.....more than a hundred more people died by baseball bats/blunt objects in 2018, than by a rifle round.
But let's dig deeper. If you collect data and look purely at metropolitan or urbanized areas....there were 14,428 murders or manslaughter episodes out of the total across the entire US of 16,214. Wanna look at the two other areas (small towns, or rural areas)? 711 murders were in small towns, and 899 in rural areas. So if you live inside the beltway of some urbanized area.....your odds of murder go up.
Murders in Alabama for 2018? Just two qualified for outright murder....both by pistols.
Murders in Idaho total for 2018? 32. But only 16 were by rifle or pistol. Four died by knife, and one by fist or kicking of feet.
From California? 24 died by rifle, but here's the shocker....252 were by knives. Ten times the number as rifles.
So all this anti-gun chatter focused? No.....it lacks focus to a great extent. It'd be more effective to prevent murders in highly urbanized areas by having stop-and-check police blockages, and ask people to step out of the car while we examine the contents. Confiscation of knives in public places? Why not?
Our total focus, based on the numbers....ought to anti-murder.
Tuesday, 1 October 2019
The Red Matters
Here's the thing which few journalists ever chat on. Of the 3,007 counties in America....Trump won roughly 95-percent of them in 2016. Hillary, on the county map....less than 5-percent.
So what Trump is basically saying....with RED making the statement...he's not running against Warren, or Sanders, or Joe Biden. He intends to run in 3,007 counties and 435 districts. He's playing the game to take a massive win in the House.
The added issue for Democrats? You see those blue counties? They generally have two unique features.....black and Latino voters.
If Trump were to take 50-percent of black male voters (now possible), and half of Latino votes....half of those counties that went to Hillary.....would flip.
A billion dollars in money, and plenty of impeachment chatter to talk about? He's got a bigger and more bold plan than people imagine.
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