In the past week, if you follow German health insurance news.....the companies all came up and admitted that together.....they went past their normal budget by about one-billion Euro, and so they had to dip into reserves.
A long-term problem? Well, yeah.
The bulk of blame? You could assign blame to around a dozen factors, but the biggest issue was nursing salary increases which had to be prioritized in 2019 because of nurses walking out of the profession, and trying to make up for shortfalls in the nursing population (recruiting from outside of Germany).
The odds this shortfall will continue into 2020? About a hundred-percent chance. So by 2021's national election....a national crisis and more costs for the insurance fund? It'll likely become a top five topic for the national election.
Thursday, 26 December 2019
The Homeless Story
President Trump basically gave the 'warning' to the California state government (particularly the governor) to settle it's homeless problems, or face federal intervention.
The Governor Newsom problem? He's basically locked into a lose-lose situation at this point. The city councils of San Francisco and Los Angeles (all Democratic-controlled operations)? They now face an extreme problem.
What happens now? I'll lay out three likely things to occur over the next six months.
First, President Trump simply sent a 'warning'. There is no schedule attached to this, and it might be twelve months before you see the threat go to the next level.
Second, the President will use this chaos to arrive in California and talk in a campaign message that the Governor and Democratic councils are screwing the general public and triggering the crisis to continue. Whether they like it or not....you could see a million voters walk away from the Democrats in 2020's state election. Enough to change the outcome? No....Hillary picked up 8.7-million votes, and Trump barely managed 4.5-million, so a million flipped votes wouldn't matter.
However, in district races.....if you scattered a million extra votes around....it'd probably flip at least five Democratic House seats over to the GOP. I suspect the bulk of this 'pressure' is about flipping House seats.
Third and final....in the stakes of a poker game....he's trying to force them to take measures that would be extreme.
Trying to resolve the homeless issues? I would go and suggest that the last thing that the federal government wants to do....is draw a line and say they want to fix this. You'd basically end up with three chief things that would be forced down:
1. Judges would be brought in and if you were mentally unstable....you'd be sent to some isolated federal controlled facility way out in the desert where the mental-case people would be isolated.
2. Drug-addicted folks would be given a one-shot rehab deal, and then if they failed that....they'd go to the desert facility described in the paragraph above.
3. Finally, you'd build cheap housing units with private security attached, and if you demonstrated you weren't willing to play by society rules....you'd also go to the desert facility described in the paragraph above.
At the end of this 'mess', I suspect that three-quarters of the homeless crowd would not be allowed into the public scene and live out their lives in a quiet compound area surrounded by security fences.
The Governor Newsom problem? He's basically locked into a lose-lose situation at this point. The city councils of San Francisco and Los Angeles (all Democratic-controlled operations)? They now face an extreme problem.
What happens now? I'll lay out three likely things to occur over the next six months.
First, President Trump simply sent a 'warning'. There is no schedule attached to this, and it might be twelve months before you see the threat go to the next level.
Second, the President will use this chaos to arrive in California and talk in a campaign message that the Governor and Democratic councils are screwing the general public and triggering the crisis to continue. Whether they like it or not....you could see a million voters walk away from the Democrats in 2020's state election. Enough to change the outcome? No....Hillary picked up 8.7-million votes, and Trump barely managed 4.5-million, so a million flipped votes wouldn't matter.
However, in district races.....if you scattered a million extra votes around....it'd probably flip at least five Democratic House seats over to the GOP. I suspect the bulk of this 'pressure' is about flipping House seats.
Third and final....in the stakes of a poker game....he's trying to force them to take measures that would be extreme.
Trying to resolve the homeless issues? I would go and suggest that the last thing that the federal government wants to do....is draw a line and say they want to fix this. You'd basically end up with three chief things that would be forced down:
1. Judges would be brought in and if you were mentally unstable....you'd be sent to some isolated federal controlled facility way out in the desert where the mental-case people would be isolated.
2. Drug-addicted folks would be given a one-shot rehab deal, and then if they failed that....they'd go to the desert facility described in the paragraph above.
3. Finally, you'd build cheap housing units with private security attached, and if you demonstrated you weren't willing to play by society rules....you'd also go to the desert facility described in the paragraph above.
At the end of this 'mess', I suspect that three-quarters of the homeless crowd would not be allowed into the public scene and live out their lives in a quiet compound area surrounded by security fences.
Friday, 20 December 2019
Why the House May Never Hand Impeachment to the Senate
Once you hand the articles over....the Senate process would start, and likely be over in roughly twenty days (more or less).
The trouble with this discussion is that Hunter and Joe Biden were skipped for the most part in the House 'game'....but neither can avoid the Senate episode, and for Joe Biden....if he's dragged in via subpoena and made to swear on 'truth'.....his reputation for the most part ends. For Hunter, the allegations of money-laundering will be laid out and likely gets him the full focus of the Treasury Department and the FBI.
I might be willing to bet that Pelosi and team have reached a point where they know the score is zero on convicting Trump and they need some exit to play this game out.
Reputation for the whole affair? If they fail to hand the Impeachment articles over by the middle of January, then the whole thing starts to die off because the news media can't keep people focused on this whole thing. Adding to it, by mid-January.....the Super Bowl and NCAA basketball business starts up.
I'll go and predict that if nothing happens with the House articles by 10th of January (the 2nd Friday of the month), then it's finished, and just dissolves away as a Jeopardy question.
Should they have gone to Censure? Yes. But it's late now to admit that.
Adding to Trump's campaign funds in this Impeachment build-up? That's another huge part of the story. He probably collected a minimum of 50-million in this past hundred days.
We can laugh, but this is a pretty lousy joke.
The trouble with this discussion is that Hunter and Joe Biden were skipped for the most part in the House 'game'....but neither can avoid the Senate episode, and for Joe Biden....if he's dragged in via subpoena and made to swear on 'truth'.....his reputation for the most part ends. For Hunter, the allegations of money-laundering will be laid out and likely gets him the full focus of the Treasury Department and the FBI.
I might be willing to bet that Pelosi and team have reached a point where they know the score is zero on convicting Trump and they need some exit to play this game out.
Reputation for the whole affair? If they fail to hand the Impeachment articles over by the middle of January, then the whole thing starts to die off because the news media can't keep people focused on this whole thing. Adding to it, by mid-January.....the Super Bowl and NCAA basketball business starts up.
I'll go and predict that if nothing happens with the House articles by 10th of January (the 2nd Friday of the month), then it's finished, and just dissolves away as a Jeopardy question.
Should they have gone to Censure? Yes. But it's late now to admit that.
Adding to Trump's campaign funds in this Impeachment build-up? That's another huge part of the story. He probably collected a minimum of 50-million in this past hundred days.
We can laugh, but this is a pretty lousy joke.
Mayor Pete in the News
I sat and watched pieces of the Democratic debate from last night, and Senator Warren got all over that poor kid....Mayor Pete.
Mayor Pete apparently had some campaign fund-raising done....in a 'wine-cave', with 900-dollar-per bottle wine.
I stopped the video, and ran that a couple of times....just that 20-second piece.
Being from Alabama, I am a bit curious about a wine-cave. We don't drink that much wine in Alabama and when we do....it's usually on the deck out back, or under some shade-trees in the midst of a hot summer afternoon, with an ice cube or two in the wine cup (you know, those Dixie-cups).
But then I got onto the subject of the 900-dollar wine. You see....having lived for years in Germany, I've had a chance to drink a fair amount of wine. In fact, I've sipped some really fine Italian, German, Australian, South African, Spanish, French, and even Greek wine. Well....some were fine (that Greek wine is marginally two-star, no matter what you pay for it).
The general amount that you'd pay for fine German wine is maybe $6 to $20. On some special occasions, you might pull out the equivalent of $30. The majority of Germans will tell you in their entire life, they've never spent more than roughly $30 for a fine bottle of decent wine.
So the question ought to come up....all these poor fools who were paying 900 dollars for a wine with Mayor Pete.....were they really drinking a bottle of wine worth $900? I have my doubts. My guess is that the bottles were simply $100 per bottle wine, and the rest were catering services and the donation to the Mayor Pete's campaign.
Does Senator Warren have a point? Basically, you have to offer 'something' for a campaign stop fund-raiser. It doesn't matter if it's a cup of Pepsi, some catfish, cupcakes with Cool-Whip on top, or beans and rice. In the end, you need to get a couple of hundred dollars out of some crazy fool.
The sad part of this story is that Trump only needs to say he's getting impeached, and send you a personal e-mail about this, and it's forty-percent chance that you will just send Trump's team $100, for nothing. No dip, no wine, no biscuits....nothing. You might go one step higher, buying that stupid cheapo red-baseball cap with 'MAGA', for $35, or buying ten of the stupid hats for $350. Can Mayor Pete compete with Trump? No.
My end-point is this....which you have to wonder about....what exactly was Senator Warren serving for her fund-raiser? A beer and cheap chips, for $129.00?
Mayor Pete apparently had some campaign fund-raising done....in a 'wine-cave', with 900-dollar-per bottle wine.
I stopped the video, and ran that a couple of times....just that 20-second piece.
Being from Alabama, I am a bit curious about a wine-cave. We don't drink that much wine in Alabama and when we do....it's usually on the deck out back, or under some shade-trees in the midst of a hot summer afternoon, with an ice cube or two in the wine cup (you know, those Dixie-cups).
But then I got onto the subject of the 900-dollar wine. You see....having lived for years in Germany, I've had a chance to drink a fair amount of wine. In fact, I've sipped some really fine Italian, German, Australian, South African, Spanish, French, and even Greek wine. Well....some were fine (that Greek wine is marginally two-star, no matter what you pay for it).
The general amount that you'd pay for fine German wine is maybe $6 to $20. On some special occasions, you might pull out the equivalent of $30. The majority of Germans will tell you in their entire life, they've never spent more than roughly $30 for a fine bottle of decent wine.
So the question ought to come up....all these poor fools who were paying 900 dollars for a wine with Mayor Pete.....were they really drinking a bottle of wine worth $900? I have my doubts. My guess is that the bottles were simply $100 per bottle wine, and the rest were catering services and the donation to the Mayor Pete's campaign.
Does Senator Warren have a point? Basically, you have to offer 'something' for a campaign stop fund-raiser. It doesn't matter if it's a cup of Pepsi, some catfish, cupcakes with Cool-Whip on top, or beans and rice. In the end, you need to get a couple of hundred dollars out of some crazy fool.
The sad part of this story is that Trump only needs to say he's getting impeached, and send you a personal e-mail about this, and it's forty-percent chance that you will just send Trump's team $100, for nothing. No dip, no wine, no biscuits....nothing. You might go one step higher, buying that stupid cheapo red-baseball cap with 'MAGA', for $35, or buying ten of the stupid hats for $350. Can Mayor Pete compete with Trump? No.
My end-point is this....which you have to wonder about....what exactly was Senator Warren serving for her fund-raiser? A beer and cheap chips, for $129.00?
Can Anyone Be Impartial Now?
RBG (Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Supreme Court Judge)....says that if Senators cannot be impartial....then they can't vote in the impeachment.
Part of this comment goes to an oath that Senators have to take...as they start the hearing.
I pondered over this impartiality chatter for a long while. To be honest, if you really pushed this impartial 'game'....virtually every single House member (both Republicans and Democrats) would have to step out of the building and walk away from Impeachment. The nine Supreme Court judges? Same story. Journalists? Yep, same story.
You walk around the general public today and discuss politicized topics? You find that most everyone has an opinion, unless they live under some bridge, smoke a lot of Acapulco Gold marijuana, or live in some delusional fantasy world with cat-people/dog-people.
So RBG's fantasy world of impartiality no longer exists? More or less. Even if you asked her about Trump, she'd be very slow to respond to any question....to hide the fact that she's already non-impartial.
Basically, that's what people are having to do now....pretend to be impartial, and just act dopey. Civilization? Socrates, if he were alive today....would say that civilization has collapsed, and there's something going on that violates human standards.
Part of this comment goes to an oath that Senators have to take...as they start the hearing.
I pondered over this impartiality chatter for a long while. To be honest, if you really pushed this impartial 'game'....virtually every single House member (both Republicans and Democrats) would have to step out of the building and walk away from Impeachment. The nine Supreme Court judges? Same story. Journalists? Yep, same story.
You walk around the general public today and discuss politicized topics? You find that most everyone has an opinion, unless they live under some bridge, smoke a lot of Acapulco Gold marijuana, or live in some delusional fantasy world with cat-people/dog-people.
So RBG's fantasy world of impartiality no longer exists? More or less. Even if you asked her about Trump, she'd be very slow to respond to any question....to hide the fact that she's already non-impartial.
Basically, that's what people are having to do now....pretend to be impartial, and just act dopey. Civilization? Socrates, if he were alive today....would say that civilization has collapsed, and there's something going on that violates human standards.
Thursday, 19 December 2019
If The Impeachment Were a Columbo Episode
Imagine at 5 AM, Columbo gets this call from the chief.
He's supposed to go out to this neighborhood, where there is NO body, no evidence of a murder, and no one reported missing.
So Columbo shows up. Hours go by. Columbo is mostly knocking on doors and presenting himself. He asks folks about nefarious acts. The only two things that folks mention is someone's dog who craps in everyone's yard during the night, and food-poisoning at some bar and grill down near the 'pike'.
Columbo continues on, and eventually goes back to write a sixteen-page report for the Chief.....with notices about the dog crapper thing and some definite hygiene problems at the grill operation.
Other than two mentions and twelve hours of research.....that was mostly it.
So the question is....would you even watch a 90-minute Columbo episode like this? The general answer is that fewer than 10-percent of people would care, and most would flip the channel over to watch a rerun of Bonanza.
This is the reality of the current situation....no one much believes in this impeachment, there is no factual evidence which really proves anything illegal, and public sentiment is more focused on Christmas....than impeachment.
He's supposed to go out to this neighborhood, where there is NO body, no evidence of a murder, and no one reported missing.
So Columbo shows up. Hours go by. Columbo is mostly knocking on doors and presenting himself. He asks folks about nefarious acts. The only two things that folks mention is someone's dog who craps in everyone's yard during the night, and food-poisoning at some bar and grill down near the 'pike'.
Columbo continues on, and eventually goes back to write a sixteen-page report for the Chief.....with notices about the dog crapper thing and some definite hygiene problems at the grill operation.
Other than two mentions and twelve hours of research.....that was mostly it.
So the question is....would you even watch a 90-minute Columbo episode like this? The general answer is that fewer than 10-percent of people would care, and most would flip the channel over to watch a rerun of Bonanza.
This is the reality of the current situation....no one much believes in this impeachment, there is no factual evidence which really proves anything illegal, and public sentiment is more focused on Christmas....than impeachment.
Wednesday, 18 December 2019
The Ten Things to Take Away From the Senate Impeachment Episode
This is my list of predictions, on things that will come out:
1. The first two days will be wasted on procedural things and the subpoena list. The Democratic Senate members are royally screwed, and they already know it.
2. Joe Biden will be subpoenaed and will attempt to fight it. Figure four weeks wasted as courts have deal with this. If he is forced into the hearing....he's finished as a political figure, and his years of Senate service are probably to be forgotten real quick.
3. Hunter Biden will disappear (probably off to South Africa). His finance records from the Ukraine company will be entered as crime 'evidence' and the IRS will be interested in his income level. The money-laundering aspects? They will be apparent, with at least two other national governments now interested, and the Justice Department looking at how vast this really is. I don't think Hunter will ever return to the US.
4. The idea that Shifty and Nadler will be the 'prosecution-team'? They are out of the league facing them. One of the brightest legal minds in DC is Ted Cruz and will carve them every chance he gets.
5. Continual coverage by CNN? Even that won't help their numbers.
6. About a week into this, Rush Limbaugh will have what I'll call a 'fat-lady' singing moment, and lay out the problems of the past week, and that this opera is mostly finished. About 40-percent of the general public will say 'enough' at that point, and voice the idea of shutting down the entire impeachment. By the end of the second week....the amount will be up to around 60-percent.
7. The suggestion of another impeachment coming up in 2020? Forget about it. The damage to the process will have been done.
8. Trump's favor with Latinos and blacks? You can figure that he bumps up another five points...nearing 40-to-45 percent of the voting public within both groups.
9. Pelosi will stand and deliver some explanation at the conclusion, and it'll be so confusing....that members of the Democratic Party suggest that she's in some dementia situation.
10. At least forty different Trump-campaign video advertisements will be made out of the impeachment 'circus'. Folks will be surprised at the creative nature, and stupid quotes by the prosecution folks.
1. The first two days will be wasted on procedural things and the subpoena list. The Democratic Senate members are royally screwed, and they already know it.
2. Joe Biden will be subpoenaed and will attempt to fight it. Figure four weeks wasted as courts have deal with this. If he is forced into the hearing....he's finished as a political figure, and his years of Senate service are probably to be forgotten real quick.
3. Hunter Biden will disappear (probably off to South Africa). His finance records from the Ukraine company will be entered as crime 'evidence' and the IRS will be interested in his income level. The money-laundering aspects? They will be apparent, with at least two other national governments now interested, and the Justice Department looking at how vast this really is. I don't think Hunter will ever return to the US.
4. The idea that Shifty and Nadler will be the 'prosecution-team'? They are out of the league facing them. One of the brightest legal minds in DC is Ted Cruz and will carve them every chance he gets.
5. Continual coverage by CNN? Even that won't help their numbers.
6. About a week into this, Rush Limbaugh will have what I'll call a 'fat-lady' singing moment, and lay out the problems of the past week, and that this opera is mostly finished. About 40-percent of the general public will say 'enough' at that point, and voice the idea of shutting down the entire impeachment. By the end of the second week....the amount will be up to around 60-percent.
7. The suggestion of another impeachment coming up in 2020? Forget about it. The damage to the process will have been done.
8. Trump's favor with Latinos and blacks? You can figure that he bumps up another five points...nearing 40-to-45 percent of the voting public within both groups.
9. Pelosi will stand and deliver some explanation at the conclusion, and it'll be so confusing....that members of the Democratic Party suggest that she's in some dementia situation.
10. At least forty different Trump-campaign video advertisements will be made out of the impeachment 'circus'. Folks will be surprised at the creative nature, and stupid quotes by the prosecution folks.
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