The Path to National IDs

 Maybe thirty years ago, I might have agreed to the extreme far right/far left arguments on no national ID card.  Over the past twenty years, I've generally reversed my opinion. I don't see how we proceed without one....at this point.

So the top eight observations:

1.  You have to connect this to the Social Security folks (they won't like the idea).  Virtually every county in America has a S/S office, and it's already fairly automated.  I do agree...you'd have to bulk up the manpower and it's probably in the 15k personnel range.

2.  Cost?  Right now, if you go ask various states.....professionally done IDs cost in the $45 to $50 range.  

I would make the US ID rate at $50, and offer up a free card to anyone who presents tax paperwork, or welfare evidence....that they make less than $35k a year on take-home salary.  Anyone from $35k a year or more....pay the $50 per card.

3.  Age to get a card?  I'd make it age 16, and offer up the first card for free.  

4.  Validity of the card?  Seven years.  At 7 years and one day....it's no longer valid. 

5.  Registering to vote in any state?  The national ID card would be required and presented.  Any attempt to get past this registration without the card....would be stopped.  

6.  Laws over duplication or fraud?  If you were the person within Social Security making the fraudulent card or entry.....no less than five years in prison, and $20k fine would be acceptable.  Outside the Social Security  group?  No less than ten years or $25k in fines.  Anyone who has manufactured more than a hundred cards?  Lifetime prison.  

7.  If this card identifies you as a Tennessee resident, then you primarily pay Tennessee taxes.  So if you moved from one state to another, you'd have to go and re-register within that state.  This data would be provided to each state upon request by their police, voting establishment or tax people.

8.  Finally, if you did attempt to attempt to vote in two different states in the same election, with the card....it would automatically flag some national office in the FBI, and a complete investigation would be required.  

Observations

 1.  The odds that Trump, if this mess ends in his defeat....comes back in 2024?  A fair number of Republicans who want him 'out-of-the-picture' are beginning to grasp that he won't just go away.  

Added to this line of progress....no one is exactly expecting the Biden-Harris era to be 'glorious' at this point.  President Harris will likely serve at least two years and find the public support marginal.  

2.  The FBI is looking at backdated ballots in Michigan.  No one says much.  Dozens of such ballots wouldn't make much difference.  If you came up with 5k to 10k of these?  Well...they'd have be thrown out, but if you can't establish which are which....then the whole state 'count' is null and void.  

3.  The polls were more wrong in 2020, than in 2016?  It's now being suggested.  

4.  Charisma-charm issue?

If you rated charisma and charm, then asked about the top forty in the Democratic Party....neither Joe Biden or his VP (Harris) would be in that group.  This is one of those odd parts of the story.

This was Joe's problem in the 1990s as he attempted to get national attention.  This was a problem for Harris in the 2019 debates, and the 2020 primary system.

As the two go forward (I assume) into 2021....it's a problem for them to get anything accomplished, without improving the charisma issue.  

So I'll predict....as you get into 2023 with President Harris.....she'll have competition in the primary, and likely be defeated in the primary system.  It'll be a remarkable moment.....which no one thought about in 2020.  

How Lid-Time Would Work with President Joe?

 This was on my mind today, and I finally came to five observations:

1.  In this case where Joe is slowly being affected by dementia....whatever amount of time that you see of Joe today (November 2020), you can carve it down by 30-percent by February 2021.  

So I would suggest on inauguration day....they wake Joe up about three hours prior to the ceremony....pep with the 'right' shot, and about three hours after oath, he quietly disappears while VP Harris carries out the rest of the day.

2. January to March?  While a lot of foreign dignitaries will want to meet with Joe....the appointments will be lined up for the morning hours only, and everything else will be handled by his chief-of-staff or VP.

3.  Staged public moments over the first-half of 2021?  Mostly all morning events.  

4.  Weekend events?  Virtually none.  He might be seen at Camp David occasionally, but by early summer....you won't see much of Joe.

5.  Some new term will be invented to replace 'lid-time' by the news media.  

If you examine the pace of dementia, and generally say his progress really started at the tail-end of 2019....he's at the first year closure.  With the latest and greatest in drugs.....I would suggest him getting through all of 2021, and issues continually noted by the last quarter of the year.  Him being taken out before mid-2022 (the next election period)?  I'm guessing that the plan is that he either stage an exit by January 2022, or try to make it to November 2022.  

Hiding this?  It just won't be easy unless he stays hidden out for the majority of time and keeps his mouth shut as much as possible.  

At the End of This Mess

 After a fair amount of pondering....I've come to three observations about the future of politics in the US....no matter who wins this election:

1.  Roughly fifty to sixty percent of the nation will be coming to the conclusion over the next twelve months that the election system is crapped out and unable to function  (as advertised).  

Blame will set upon various county officials, state political folks, news people, judges, and the national party system (both parties).  

'Banana Republic' will be uttered a great deal.  

2.  Right-leaners still voting with the Republicans?  I think a fair number of people will gaze at Fox News, and twenty-odd Republicans in the House and Senate....to say they more or less wanted Trump 'moved-on'. 

A third-party discussion will start up.  It might take three to four years, but I expect a full-up conservative party to exist by 2024, and mount some candidate.  Maybe he'll only get 12-percent of the national vote.  Maybe he only gets fifteen Electoral College votes.  But it'll the beginning of the end for the GOP.

The same occurring for the Democratic or left-leaners?  Maybe.  The Green Party already exists.  But there's probably room for non-urban Democratic Party....especially in the south.

3.  Finally, you can just sense an enormous amount of propaganda being dished-out on a daily basis.  You get propaganda via your local TV network, some local sports talk-show host, your local minister, your neighbor, your local school PTA 'bosses', and forty-odd individuals.  

Maybe it was marginally done back in the 1980s, but at the current pace of things....people are likely to start backing away from 'trust' and start to question virtually everything they see.  That's not exactly a good thing.

Observations

 1.  Two years ago, if you'd told me that the US might elect a dementia guy, with strong ties to money-laundering folks in Russia, China, and the Ukraine....and that his son was crackhead who was hired to arrange appointments for 'dad'....then telling me that his Vice would be a gal who moved up in her 20s by kneepad action for SF political figures....then I would have laughed and said it was BS.

2.  Jeff Bezos selling 3 billion dollars of Amazon stock?  Maybe setting things up to buy CNN?

3.  Hygiene teams wandering shopping districts in Germany.....hyping up good habits on avoiding Covid-19.

4.  If polls are this screwed up....why would we listen to them?

5.  Reflecting upon Fox News....it's probably time to dump them  News Max, ONE, and First TV....probably better choices.  

6. ESPN laying off 300 employees.  Maybe if they'd stuck to sports over the past three years....those folks would still be there.

7.  Trump won 45-percent of Latino vote in Florida.  

Puerto Rican State Status?

 One of the little things not openly discussed yesterday, from voting on Tuesday....the ballot on going for statehood in Puerto Rico occurred.  

The public voted 52 percent to go for statehood.

If you look at public opinion polls...up until mid-summer 2020....most islanders were neutral.  Since August?  It's gone to around 50-percent.

Next step?  They'd have to approach Congress and submit the paperwork.  What would they get?  Two Senators, and somewhere around five Representatives.  

Happening in 2021?  I would have my doubts.  It was marginally in 'yes' area.  The House delaying this for a minimum of two years?  Absolutely.  

The only situation?  Well....NO.  You see...Guam is approaching this same idea, with the adjacent area of the Mariana Islands wanting to be part of the package.  The Mariana group?  About 100 miles NE of Guam.  Population of the two?  Around 240k.  So they'd get the two Senators, but only get one single Representative.  

That's it?  NO.  You also have the DC statehood crowd, and they'd like to achieve status as well.  They'd get two Senators and one Representative.  

Likely nature of this?  Within ten years, I could see all three achieving this.  Is there room for six more Senators in the Senate floor?  That might be an issue.  Which states would give up seven House seats?  You'd be developing a huge mess for clean-up later.  

The Only Path Left

 For Trump, the path left is readily apparent.

His lawyers have to go and find various discrepancies throughout the system (not just one state, but probably five to ten states).  Upon presenting everything to the Supreme Court, the discussion will be....you have to throw out the count in these states. 

Once you admit fifty-odd EC votes don't exist....neither Joe Biden or Donald Trump can be elected via the Electoral College.  End of the game for that process.

So we progress to the House election method....the 3rd of January.  New House Speaker elected (likely to be Democrats in control).  I would question if Pelosi gets confirmed for another period.

Marginal efforts to occur for three weeks, and President Trump's era will close with no vote.  House Speaker would then assume the post because of the delays, with the Supreme Court ordering the Speaker (or replacement) to finally end this game and have the state-by-state vote.  26 will vote for Trump, and the 'game' ends.

For one brief day....the Speaker will likely serve as the President to make his or her point.

As comical as the scenario is....it's likely the path ahead.  So the game of getting a replacement judge on the Supreme Court was a necessary one.  

Civil war coming in mid-to-late January?  Yes.  The State-of-the-Union message?  Done mostly to a half-empty room.  Seattle, Minneapolis, Portland, and a dozen other cities on fire?  Probably.