Trying To Relate to the Minimum Wage Game Coming

 Years ago, I worked with a older NCO who'd decided upon some life-dream as he retired.  He was going to buy and run a bowling alley.  He and the wife had the savings to accomplish this dream.

I would have been the first to admit....on my list of 100 business opportunities to own and operate....a bowling alley wasn't on the list.

So he retired....bought the alley, and about twelve months later....he came through the local area, and gave us a brief update on his 'dream'.

There were three essential problems:

1.  He was spending 70 hours a week in this effort, and it was burning him out.  He could not reach a point where he was a part-time manager.  

2.  Customer flow was not a constant thing.  Around the holiday periods, he'd lose 50-percent of his cash flow.  This was something he'd never calculated or figured into his plan.

3.  Finally, virtually all of the employees were minimum-wage type people, and half of them had no enthusiasm over whether the business succeed or failed.  

As he pointed out, he had forty-year-old employees who were set into a pattern of life....they weren't going to get pumped-up or hyped to be customer-friendly.

In simple terms, this whole life dream was crapped-out and he probably wasn't going to do this more than another year or two.

I look upon this $15 an hour chatter for minimum wage and kinda wonder how these operations like this (the bowling alley) will function in the new era.  Right now....a single lane for an hour runs $25....shoe rental is $3.....with food and beer for the evening near $20 per person.  After the minimum wage change?  You can probably add another $3 to $4 in cost.  

Observations

 1.  Will healthcare cost/operation get more f**ked-up in 2022?

Well....if you pause over this idea that 11 to 22 million non-Americans will get a visa-deal and path to citizenship, and free healthcare in this path....look at the future.

It's probably closer to 22 million than 11 million.  By August, they will be in the system.  Insurance companies will calculate the up-surge, and you will be shocked in November to learn from your insurance company that the rate went up 35-to-50 percent. A whole bunch of you will whine like hell over this.  Congress can't rsolve this in time to fix the rate business.  So for 2022....it's a seriously crappy economic year....money that would have gone into 401k or IRAs....won't go.

But to the rescue....will be Senator Sanders, with Medicare-for-all....cutting the cost to 50-percent of what you paid before.  So come November 2022, you sign up for Biden-care (basically Medicare).

What you don't realize in this rush....most doctors, clinics and hospitals will a limit on Medicare folks.  As you call your doctor in January 2023, he tells you that since yo went on this new program.....there's a limit.  He'll ask, do you want to go on the waiting list?  It's a five to seven year wait.  

As 2023 rolls on....massive anger brews.  Not only are new immigrants angry about their level of healthcare, but you got sold a pretty cheap marginal health care deal.  

2.  A report came out to suggest that 890,000 folks will die because of the lock-down....than from Covid-19.  Chief reason?  Unemployment and lack of positive nature.  

Myanmar and Tourism

 Yesterday, I essayed a bit on the coup in Myanmar, and marginally covered the topic of tourism.  Today, a slight bit more on why people go there.

Around four years ago, I watched this 90-minute movie that the German public TV folks had made in Myanmar.  Typically, there are four scripts used for these German public TV  productions: murder-mystery, romance-angle, marginal humor (usually involving Bavarians), and exotic-travel-all-in-one.  You can laugh about the effort, but they generally always go along these lines.  

So this script that was for the German movie was set in Myanmar around some resort hotel, a couple of Germans on holiday, some marginalized script, and about one-third of the movie set to landscape shots of Buddhist temples, ruins, and jungle-like settings.  I should note, they did everything possible to avoid any negative view of the country.  

German interest in Myanmar?  Roughly 30,000 to 40,000 go each year.  I suspect that most want tranquil resorts (no boozing up or party atmosphere), safe places to trek around, and exotic charm. Some might tell you they want hearty noodle dishes, with fish and spiced-up curry added.  

The chief tourists coming to Myanmar?  Chinese and Thai folks....probably making up around 35-percent of the incoming crowd.  The Americans?  Around the last couple of years, it's been up around 50k to 60k folks.  

On the American prospective, half probably watched the movie 'The King and I' and wanted some low chaotic adventure....with the rest having watched National Geographic pieces and want the full-up-over-the-top jungle adventure.

A handful of Americans will remember Rambo #3, and how he had gone into Myanmar to rescue 'Joe' and the boys.  I should note that Myanmar could not allow the production to take place and it ended up being mostly in Thailand.  Later, after the release....Myanmar banned the video import into the country.  Amazing enough, this Rambo movie became very popular with the anti-government folks, and various slogans in Rambo....were lifted for political slogans that are anti-junta.

Over the years, I've come to view Myanmar in various ways, but never had much of enthusiasm to put it on my next-place-to-visit list.  There are several reasons for this:

1.  First, there 39 poisonous snake types in the country.  

2.  Anything within 20 miles of the border is considered fairly dangerous because of drug activity and Army patrols.

3.  There are a minimum of 300 fairly ROBUST spices used in regional foods, and I'd prefer not to test my limits.

4.  Myanmar is considered one of the top ten countries for corruption, and they pride themselves on finding new ways each year.

5.  There is a hiker's trail that a lot of western folks put down for a place to visit (Banana Pancake Trail), which has become a serious magnet for gangs to hang out and rob you.  

6.  Myanmar is currently considered the largest producer of meth in the world itself.

So there are various reasons to go there, and various reasons to avoid the country.  My general advice....if you've never been tested in life and need some fulfilling adventure....Myanmar might be the place for you. 

Myanmar Chat

 Back on the 8th of November, Myanmar had a legislative election.  It was the second in their history.  To run this operation....a national election commission exists.

So to the general landscape there?  There's a population of 54-million.  Roughly 37-million were registered to vote. 

Voter turn-out?  Around 75-percent....nearly 25.9-million.

Compared to five years ago?  23.9-million from a registered voting pool of 34.3-million registered voters.  

Yeah, if you did the numbers....2.7-million more registered voters this time, than last time.  Plus there are 2 more new plus-up votes compared to five years ago.

So how the election went?  One single party got around 61-percent of the vote.....National League for Democracy.

After that, the 2nd place party (the Union Solidarity Party) got 3.1-percent.

 The dozen other parties all got around 1-percent.

Then you come to the military 'guaranteed' wins.....no matter how folks vote....the military side of the house is guaranteed 25-percent of the legislative votes.

Well....things started to be openly discussed.  Problems had occurred.  Well over 200 serious complaints turned into the Election Commission during November and December.  

The military itself?  In the past month, they identified roughly 8-million problems with the national registration listing.  No one is saying the extent of this....maybe it's people listed in multiple districts....maybe it's dead voters....this part of the story is missing a lot.

The opposition parties complained a good bit.  If you subtracted the military guaranteed seats....then this National League for Democracy probably won near 75-percent of the vote.

So the army general of the country went to the Election Commission and just said you need to investigate this.  Reponses?  No. Last week was sort of a 'you-really-need-to-investigate' this....meaning the 8-million voter discrepancy.  Nothing.

Over the weekend, a coup occurred.  The political side of the government was 'fired' by the military.  An election will be arranged in roughly a year (so they suggest), and the voting polls?  Well...there is some wording that this problem will be worked upon and resolved by then.

Naturally....a whole of countries are furious about the arrests of the political folks.

The military worried about this?  No.  

All of this hurting tourism?  Before Covid came along, Myanmar had bumped up to around 4.3-million guests in 2019 (generally averaging 2-million yearly for the past decade).  My humble guess...2020 and 2021 are crapped out on tourism anyway.

Folks generally go for three reasons....lot of ancient stuff to see, a cheap cost for luxury hotels, and the fine hospitality of the Myanmar people. 

So this whole election thing is about some registration issues?  Yeah....mostly.  No one is saying much over double-voting or dead folks voting.  What they suggest is that a couple million folks have information on the registration forms which might not be correct (maybe a wrong address, or wrong birthday, or wrong ID number).  

The odds of a second election changing anything (a year away)?  If you assigned a hundred folks to the registration problem, my humble guess is that you could wipe out a quarter of these 8-million registration problems pretty easily.  The next vote however....might be exactly the same.  

To the last point, that this looks an awful lot like the US election, except no coup occurred?  Well....yeah, there's that perception.  But there is one plus in Myanmar....they have a national ID card....something that you can't possibly have in the US. 

The odds of you getting this type of view via CNN?  Zero.  Even to suggest the basic facts of the coup?  You'd get no response from them.  

Just something to think about. 

The 1929 Crash, Shorts, and Reality

 From the day that WW I ended, until the third week of October 1929....speculation, shorts, massive up's and downs on the open market, real estate 'games' of massive proportion, and loose regulation led to a wild period. 

History classes rarely dive into the period and the amount of speculation that was taking place.  

The billions shipped off by NY City banks to Germany to end the reparations 'mess'?  Rarely discussed. 

The speculation in September of a massive crash?  Various experts called this already in the months prior.  

Shorts-'betting' taking place?  In a massive way, yes.

Jesse Livermore?  Never heard of the guy?  He had a reputation for shorts in the period prior to the crash.  He ended up hiring around a hundred traders to conduct the shorts and arrange them in 'tidy' but hidden fashion.  The winnings in October when the crash occurred?  Roughly 100-million dollars....which would today be in the range of $1.5-billion was the winnings for Livermore.  

As much as people want to believe it was just a wild crazy single day event....the crash on 29 October 1929 was accurately figured by a fair number of people.  They shorted at the right time/rate, and the crowd left standing had to pay for the crappy investment attitude.  A fair amount of this crash.....goes back to wild speculation, shorts, and risky behavior.  

So you stand here now and view the past two weeks, with the GameStop events in full view, and start asking the same questions....do we have wild speculation, shorts in the middle and risky behavior going on?  

How Biden 'Court-Packing' Might Go

 At some point in early 2022....I kinda expect President Biden to announce two additional Supreme Court Justices to be added, with their names forwarded to the Senate to accomplish (naturally, both are Democrats)....so this would bring the court officially to 11 members.

By the end of 2022, I expect two folks to pass on within the court (one Republican and one Democrat), with both replaced by Democratic judges.

Then in 2025, I expect the incoming Republican President to announce more court-packing....adding four names to the list (all Republicans) and bring the total to 15 members.

Then in 2029, with a new Democratic President, I expect more court-packing, with four names added, and bringing the total up to 19 members.

Around 2037, folks will remark that 29 Justices are a bit too much and ask if we have that much work for them to do.  

Observations

 1.  After a brief internal conversation within the Pentagon, they decided that giving the Gitmo prisoners a priority on the Covid-19 vaccinations...ahead of vets....probably wasn't that wise of an idea.  So they were moved back down to the regular status (they won't say when but it probably won't happen before summer).

2.  United Airlines suggests that come spring....up to 14,000 folks will be furloughed (not much is said over how long).  This would be the big indicator to say that regular air travel in the next six months simply won't happen.  

3.  Iowa passed a law that schools MUST reopen by 15 Feb.  Odds of this happening?  Teacher union will probably seek some delay or perhaps go via a strike.  

4.  This whole GameStop stock manipulation discussion by the SEC?  Mostly (99-percent) bogus.  There's not a single insider or GameStop employee that can say they are involved.  Normally, in all past manipulations (going back a hundred years)....some insider played a key role.  

Oh, I agree....both the SEC and Congress will investigate this....like they did the 2008 mortgage crisis and bank failures, but if you remember....nothing much happened in 2009/2010, and that's the way this is lining up.  Add to it....if you quizzed all 435 House members and 100 Senators....only around ten of them could answer a simple basic quiz on 'shorts'.  I would even add that most ex-bankers or people claiming vast experience in financial affairs that are politicians....know really know next to nothing about the 'shorts' business.  

5.  A study was done on the top ten most dangerous neighborhoods in America (NO-GO zones).  

Seven of them are in California (four in L A, three in SF).  Portland got on the list.  Kansas City rated for two of them.  Oddly, neither Chicago or Detroit made the list. As bad as some folks in Memphis think they have it.....they also didn't make the list. 

6.  Russian population decline?  Well....in the past twelve months, Russia will readily admit that 500k people have packed up and left.  Some of this is based on economics.....some based on people with real wealth just figuring out that life is better beyond the border.  The odds that this will lessen in 2021?  I wouldn't be betting on it settling or halting.....it'll probably be near the same number who exit in 2021.

7.  Some ranking member of the Iranian political establishment (remember, it's 99-percent influenced by the religious business) admitted in a conversation that various members had consulted 'genies' (commonly referred to in Iran as 'Jinns').

I should state this as a fact.....Jinns are viewed in Iran as good or evil.  It's simply a spirit.  

Yes, they are admitting that the Jinns have guided them in some way....so if they failed or succeed....the credit or blame would go to the Jinn.  Maybe the House Democrats in the US should ask about this Jinn business....to get the blame dumped off their back.

8.  The WHO team visiting the Wuhan market for the first time since the virus outbreak thirteen months ago?  Well.....yeah.  It was a staged visit this past week.....probably a fairly cleaned up affair and only a minor demonstration of what was there before.  

One gets the impression that the WHO keeps a dog-and-pony show team around....just to make appearances like this.