This Gun Law Chatter

 I looked over the five key components of what the Senate 'wrote':

1.  So on 'juvenile criminal records included in background checks for purchasers under 21 years of age'?

This will argued and challenged in various ways, with lawyers claiming that the records are bound by law not to be in any public domain. 

I do agree....the law would make sense.  But my gut feeling is that it'll be challenged in various courts, and within 18 months...be thrown out.

2.  So on 'Increased sentencing for trafficking black market firearms to 15 years'?

If the DA refuses to charge you for black market firearms use....the 15-year deal is dissolved as a 'worry'.

I would think various guys will offer up $25k in campaign donations....to avoid the charge.

3.  So on the idea of a sentence of 25 years if trafficked firearm is used in the commission of a felony, act of terror, or drug trafficking?

Again, it's left to a prosecutor/DA to charge you one of these commissions.  He'll just say you are mentally incompetent, and loose you in some 12-month rehab program, then release you.  

4.  On new funding for school safety enhancements and mental health treatment programs?

What?  Are you going to mental nut-case 'Larry' in some facility, for the rest of his life?  No.  So more money to be spent....faking an agenda that treatment programs work.

5.  Finally.....federal funding for states to pass “red flag” laws?

They will be challenged in court, and the red flag laws will be thrown out within 18 months.

A lot of nothing.....if you ask me.  

Observations

 1.  President Biden made a statement yesterday: "There's gonna be another pandemic."

Shocking news.....I swear.

2.  Oddly enough, the Ruble is now at the strongest point in seven years....against the dollar.  It's hard to find any economist who thinks this a real or trustworthily trend.  

3.  US college enrollments have dropped in the past year by 1.4-million.  No one says it's a permanent trend, but if this were to occur again....I would imagine some colleges would be asking questions.

I also noticed that the University of Cincinnati, which has a decent STEM program....went and added wording to the regulations....preventing Asians and whites from getting seats in the program.  Naturally, it's a public college and there's going to be some legal action taken....lawyers will make some quick cash here, and they will be forced to drop the regulation a year or two down the road.

4.  John Hawkins wrote a piece, which I'd encourage you to read.  Title?  "Why Most Liberals Are Intellectually Incapable of Understanding Conservatives."

I'll just say this....this would not have been true twenty to thirty years ago.  In some ways....I think a fair sum of Americans have dumbed themselves down....where even a 12-year old kid might be more logical and intelligent than a 30-year old college graduate.

5.  Just odd....city of Uvalde, Texas (shooting area)....went and hired a private law firm to safeguard video/pictures of the crime scene.  

Just my imagination here, but there's going to be massive lawsuits coming against the school, the city, and the police....and financially speaking....they will be in a rough period for the next decade.  If you live in the town...you might want to view your home-price currently, sell, and move a good distance out of town.

6.  Joe Biden's team had to admit yesterday that US tax revenue is being used to safeguard and maintain the seized yachts of the Russian Oligarch folks.  How much money spent?  No one really says....wouldn't shock me if we were spending 300-million a year.

7.  Interesting report at Newsmax.....tens of thousands packing up in SF, and leaving town.  No trend-stopper on the horizon.

8.  Miss Brazil winner....dead at age 27....from tonsil surgery complications.

This Texas GOP Succession Vote in 2023?

Basically, the Republican Party of Texas wants to have a vote by the end of 2023....to succeed from the union.  

Humble belief here?  Well....I think they are laying a 'card' on the table and that the suggested vote (if any occurs) would be after the November 2024 presidential election.  Hint here....if the Democrats were to win in 2024....then it's possible this vote might occur in the spring-to-summer of 2025.  

How it would go?  Anyone's guess.

Legit?  Mostly no.  The Constitution doesn't allow an exit.

Zero options?  If Texas voted to go and run up a Constitutional vote....asking the other 49 states to give some consent....then it'd be a different game.

Thirty-eight states would be required to pass such legislation to allow an exit.  Odds of this?  If you were to write a scenario that Newsom (Governor of California) won in 2024 and would be President for four to eight years....then I'd suggest that finding a dozen states to approve the Constitutional change would be fairly easy.  Finding 38 states?  Difficult.

But lets carry this fantasy to the level....that 38 states agreed to this state change...that 'any' state could exit or reform itself?  Then you might find some path to getting 38 states to approve it.

My view of what would happen (probably after 2028)?  I'd predict that as Texas openly discussed this exit....they'd find six additional states interested in a nation-state status (my suggestion is that Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida would fall into this discussion).

I would also suggest that California on its own.....would form a nation state.  Alaska would probably also discuss the idea.

A positive thing?  Well...as divided as the nation is....if you wanted to avoid a civil war....this would be a handy tool to use, and lessen tensions.  

Odds of this happening?  Oh....probably less than a 5-percent chance.  But then, I used to laugh over woke-crap.

Why Is Birmingham, Alabama High on the Murder Business?

 Being from the state, this is one of those twenty-five questions that can arise, and you can debate at length.

For the record, Birmingham was a working-man's town up through the 1940s and probably still existed as such through the 1970s.  I should note....the last Republican mayor of the town was George Siebels (1967-1975).  From 1975 on, it's been a long tradition in the city to only elect Democratic mayors.

So as the cocaine age (1980s) arrived, crime escalated in the city, and various neighborhoods began to empty out....moving 10 to 20 miles away, and those voters...who might have been traditional Republican voters.....weren't in the mayor election business.

The shape and feel of law enforcement in the city?  The police were used as 'gate-keepers'.....don't interfere with these areas of town, and look the other way.  

So as drugs increased, and gang action became a normal thing in the city....violence and murders increased.

At some point, the city of Birmingham....realizing the tax revenue bucket was lessening....decided to attempt a tax on people....even if they don't live in the city, but work there.  Alabama has a general law against that type of taxation gimmick....so that failed.  

What you can generally say.....at this point, even if the city council wanted to resolve the crime and murder business....they don't have the revenue to go and hire enough police to effect change. 

The general public of Birmingham figuring out this failure?  There is a slow steady decline in the population of the city, and in roughly two years....Huntsville will be the most populated city of the state.  I would take a guess by 2030....Birmingham will gone down to about 200,000 in number.  Here's the thing....the only super-positive spin to the city is that it has a decent airport.  Beyond that....there's nothing to make you feel charged-up to bring a business to the city.

I'll go and predict the murder numbers continue to increase, with people openly frustrated with the lack of attention.  

My 2023/2024 Presidential Script

 This is how I see the 2023 campaign season opening, and how the 2024 'show' unfolding:

1.  I will project around a dozen Democrats showing up in June of 2023 to an early debate schedule.  President Biden will not be there, declining to run in 2024.  Top three in this early showing....Governor Newsom of California, Pete Buttigieg, and AOC.  Now of the three will excite folks in Iowa (in case you were wondering).  

2.  I will project that Trump will not run, but he will appear in several states to campaign for certain candidates.  

3.  Republicans in the mid-summer of 2023 that are running?  DeSantis, Ted Cruz, Tim Scott, and Nikki Haley.  No, Mike Pence won't be showing up.  The way that Iowa will shape up....DeSantis wins.  

4.  From the end of January of 2024 on....it's strictly a race between Newsom and DeSantis.  

5.  Convention 2024?  Newsom selects Buttigieg as VP candidate.  DeSantis selects Richard Grenell.  Yes, both VPs will be gay guys....go figure the campaign logic to this.

6.  Debates?  Zero between the two groups.  It's more or less a public agreement that the debates were always biased in some way.  The news media will hype this to the max, but no one cares.

7.  Buttigieg's value to the campaign?  Almost zero.  Grenell can talk international politics and has five-star value at table talks.  

8.  This becomes by mid-October....mostly an assessment about how Florida did over the past three years, and how crappy California did with Newsom in charge.  Some ad will appear with ten people noting how they left California because it failed as a modern society and state.  By late October, even the news media will admit that Newsom was the wrong guy to run at this point.

9.  DeSantis wins the election, and immediately tells the Republican Party that he will select his own people....noting how bad advice filtered into Trump's camp, and he won't repeat that mistake.  

10.  Immediately upon becoming President....another Russia-Gate episode starts up.  This time however, DeSantis throws out a hint....he's reorganizing the FBI....basically breaking them up into five minor units, and most all of the members are being given 'pack-up' orders to leave DC.  All the stuff that Trump talked about doing?  DeSantis is going to place at the front of the list...to get done.  

What Podcasters Really Did Accomplish

 Up to the 1990s...TV and radio news networks were able to convey news and discussion over public agenda items.  Then, as social media came along....something unusual happened.  Podcasts started to replace the TV/radio news networks.  

In a normal week, I will preview at least fifty different podcasts....some just five minutes in nature....some going two full hours (like the Joe Rogan episodes).

I'll sometimes watch Dr Todd Grande take apart people and explain how sane or insane they are.

I'll watch the 'Amazing Lucas' review something with a tough black prospective.

I'll watch the '1420' podcasts where Russians are asked questions on the street.

I'll watch 'darkhorse' explain complicated science topics in simple talk.

I'll watch 'ancient architects' explain archeological discoveries. 

I'll watch Peter Boghossian detail the way to discuss topics with uncivil people.

I'll watch Lex Friedman drill down into serious science topics and provide enlightenment over the vast universe.

I'll watch 'A Word on Westerns' which covers all the cowboy movies of the past decades.

I'll watch Doctor John Campbell explain medicine to the 9th degree.

I'll watch 'serpentza' discuss China....both the good and bad.

I'll watch 'We got a problem' to explain the UK problems.

I'll watch 'Triggernometry' with two comedians taking fairly serious topics.

I'll watch 'Real coffee with Scott Adams' to get the insider view of the world.

In simple terms....podcasts have picked up the slack that the news media left on the floor, and fulfills the 'emptiness'.  

Five Things

 1.  Did President Biden say that inflation is a plus-up when hitting families, because it helps to accomplish the liberal agenda?

Yeah.  Among the top ten illogical things he's said in the past eighteen months.....it's definitely on the list.  

Here's the odd thing....if you corner an economist (graduate degree and all)....no one will admit in public that it's a positive thing or that it helps some agenda.  Most will say that recessions and inflation can easily trigger political chaos and bring down a government.  

2.   Some study came out and said that the Biden Administration did save jobs. Cost for each job saved?  $850,000.  Personally speaking....if I were working and you offered me an incentive to retire early....$850,000 would be enough.  

3.  Hillary Clinton came out and offered some advice to Democrats.....she said....'drop the agenda' business, and get back to basic traditional issues.  Probably the legit and smart statement she's made in the past five years.

4.  Is the Macron presidency wrapped up for failure....even though he just won his second election around a month ago?

Well....this past weekend, the legislative election wrapped up.  From the opposition left, and the far right....there are enough votes in the French 'House' to block any Macron agenda item.  So in effect....he's got five years ahead where nothing much will happen unless he bends either to the left, or to the far right.

5.  The House holds around 14,000 hours of video from J6....with none of it accessible to normal Americans.  In effect, it's been classified.  If you asked the logic of this....people generally just grin.