Saturday, 21 January 2023

Explaining Peru's Recent Chaos

 Over the past three months, Peru's stability situation has moved from a page six story....to page one.  There's a lot of news chatter....which seems to be BS....so a moment of introduction:

1.  Peru for the past hundred years, economically and politically....has revolved around mining and bulk agriculture production.  Those key groups maintain the economic stability (control) and whatever political power developed...was 'blessed' by the 'boys-in-the-back-room'.

2.  In modern history....the 'new' Peru came about in 1968 with a coup d'état organized by a number of military officers, led by General Juan Velasco Alvarado.  Their label?  Well....they were going to bring "social progress and integral development".  

To pay for the benefits gained?  The General dumped the owner of the oil industry, and the state took over....using the cash flow for improvements.  It was during this era that major ownership of farm-land ceased, and the gov't started to hand out individual plots to farmers.  

3.  During the 1980s, economic chaos was a daily thing.  The currency reached a point where it was necessary to dump the Sol, and going to the Inti.  At some point...the Inti was going into failure....so they invented another currency out of thin air....called the Neuvo Sol.  In simple terms....nothing much that the government did....resulted in economic stability.

4.  To fix the 1980s issues....the military stepped in again, and drafted up more 'control' measures.  Censorship and a mandated economy (run by the military officers) became the solution.  Behind this....came the 'Shining Path' terrorist organization, which was a big deal for most of a decade.

5.  In the early 1990s...Fujimora came to be the President, and introduced more control measures....favored by the military.  If you were in some opposition group and raising 'hell'....you probably got a visit by the police.  Judges?  They were routinely put into place or 'fired'.  There's hardly a day in this era when you didn't hear about some Shining Path terror action going on.  

6.  Peru goes through the 2000 to 2010 period....with a series of new political figures....who are mostly retreads of the 1990s, and simply re-inventing themselves.  By 2009, the corruption trial over Fujimora has concluded....deciding he was pretty 'bad', and giving the guy 25 years in prison.  The true side to his case?  His police were involved in kidnappings and murder....sponsored by the state.  It was an effort to clear the slate and say that the government could clean up its mess.

7.  In 2011, you had the case where the President came from one party and the congress were Fujimorists in nature.  Impeachment chatter often came up.  They had a unique feature in their Constitution....where you could impeach a President without cause. Yes....nothing illegal or such....or even incompetence.  Based on this threat....President Humala left office (just the threat was enough to clear the house).

8.  The Covid era (2020 on)?  Well....politics ends up as a front page story....day after day.  President Vizcarra....walking in with marginal support in 2021....was 'fired' a week later.  Some folks say it was a coup by Congress, but it really doesn't matter.

9.  So we come to President Castillo.  He was the clear winner of the July 2021 election....no argument.  His party's control in the Peruivan House?  Around 25-percent....so nothing much was being passed, and it was mostly political theatrics for months leading up to December.

Then Castillo does something unique.....he's decided he will 'fire' the House and run the control by mandates from his office.  This set off alarms in the capital, and on the 7th of December....the House removed Castillo.  

What's generally laid out by news media sources is that Castillo is left-wing and the House is right-wing.  

It's safe to say the Castillo appeals to the bulk of lower-class voters (probably 20-to-30 percent of the country), and his promises rely upon a lot of 'gifts' coming down for this society of Peru.

The House vote to remove Castillo?  101-to-6.  

Who became President then?  Well....the VP....a woman by the name of Boluarte.

Castillo?  He's now been arrested/detained....on charges of rebellion.  Yeah....if it sounds like the 6th of January stuff in DC....you might be grinning.

Castillo like a charged-up and thrills-guy, who is anti-capitalist....a bit Trump-like character?  Some Peruvians would gleefully suggest that.  

Where things stand since mid-December?  Boluarte is basically running the country with the support of a right-of-center House and the full support of the military.  On the negative side....if you were to poll the public....probably half the country is shaking its head and in some state of anti-Boluarte behavior (meaning riots are occurring nightly).

A lot of this anger resulting from Castillo's promises?  That's the odd factor....he was absolutely a Marxist and doubling down on nationalist 'gifts' to the public.  He did actually promise a new tax on the rich of Peru....his big aim was to finally nationalize Peru’s mining industry (the real money-maker for the country presently), and there was that idea of writing a whole new constitution.

For reference, the Constitution presently....is the 5th since 1900....freshly drawn up in 1993.  Oddly enough, the key feature delivered out of this....the old Congress (made up of 240 folks) was reduced to 120.  

If you start at 1823....there's been a dozen Constitutions....most barely lasting a decade.  So it'd be truthful to say....things are always evolving there.

If you were looking for a great example how politics is a 'show'....Peru is the place to review things.  

Fires in the capital city, and riot police out in the past week?  Yeah....that's the action going on.  A lot of this is simply Castillo-supporters...disturbed that he didn't get a chance to fire the House and run things on his own.  

The odds that President Boluarte will be gone in three years?  Pretty much guaranteed.  Odds of another Marxist political gimmick already in the works?  Pretty much guaranteed.  

My advice....if you were a high school civics teacher and wanted a project for class development....assign a week of reading over Peru, spend a day talking about the value or lack of value in having a Constitution, and the chaos attached to politics.  

Friday, 20 January 2023

20 Things I Think Of

 1.  Every time I see a FBI official speak....I sit and contemplate....what's the odds of a false narrative that might fit into his 'talk'.

2.  Each time I see any politician promise something....I'm wondering how many lobbyists paid to influence him.

3.  Each time I see George Bush, I tend to wonder if he was ever fit to run a Burger King.

4.  Each time I hear Benghazi mentioned....I wonder....why would there be forty-odd CIA guys/contractors....sitting less than two miles away from the Ambassador's house?

5. Every time I see Bill and Hillary Clinton, I contemplate how many women 'serviced' Bill (BJ-wise) over the past forty years, and if Bill was given the 'green-light' back at year one of the marriage.

6.  Every time some PhD guy/gal indicates to me their position in life.....I kinda feel sorry for them, and contemplate offering them a coffee or a shot of cheap whiskey.

7.  When I get moral lectures from Christian folks (ever since age 12)....I tend to sit there imagine if Moses got these lectures over and over, and he walked off into the desert mostly because he was tired of the lectures.

8.  When I tend to see four policeman at the same time...standing there.....I size up the guys and figure the donut count to reach 250 pounds each.

9.  When I watch CNN (ever so rarely)....I'm continually counting the seconds before I either mute the sound or change the channel.

10.  When I (rarely) fly these days...I tend to sit and count the folks in the aisle yet to come....who are fifty to one-hundred pounds over their weight and require 1.3 seats to really sit comfortably, and hope none of them sit by me.

11. When I notice a gal wearing a pair of pants that are two sizes too small for her 'build'....I often wonder if she's so poor....she can't afford to buy the correct size.

12.  When I'm talking to a college graduate (four-year degree) and they seem to be eighth-grade high school material.....I'm wondering if I should recommend they seek part of their tuition back.

13.  When I'm in conversation with someone who seems to have paranoid schizophrenia (they actually describe imaginary people).....I tend to view and develop an escape plan.

14.  After I get home with a new TV these days...it's around day two that I realize there's around 600 extra functions....I didn't ask for....and contemplate if I should read further into the manual, or just stick with the dozen things I really asked for.

15.  I've come to realize that any conversation on the porch in 1975....centered on a dozen simple topics and you could engage without being embarrassed or put on the spot.  Today, there's likely 3,000 different subjects, and a quarter of them are pretty hot-topics that you'd rather not discuss....even with your barber, your wife, or the landscaper guy (Pedro).

16.  When I'm sitting in a ultra-modern car, it pains me to admit that there's probably six hours of training required to use all of the functions within the car.

17.  When I pull into any gas station in a highly urbanized city....I'm evaluating the lighting, security and my safety situation.

18.  When VP Harris speaks....I tend to wonder how she made it past the 8th grade.

19.  When I'm at a doctor's office and they hand me some interview-letter...asking me my feelings over X, Y and Z.....I tend to want to write that I feel great since I developed a relationship with my invisible friend (Marvin).  

20.  When I board a plane....I'm often wondering....from the 300 folks who are doing their best to make sure it runs perfect.....the movie mechanism works, the bag is there, and that the drink cart is full.....will any of them fail on their one vital task?

When Tolerance Fails

 "Tolerance will reach such a level that intelligent people will be banned from thinking so as not to offend the fools."

- Dostoevsky

I am reminded of this...every time that VP Harris speaks.  

Nine Observations

 1.  Why all this hype over the visitor logs to President Biden's personal home in Delaware?

Well...I suspect that with each weekend trip....a doctor came by, and it might be interesting what his expertise is in.

2.  What's this HUD talk about 'equality plans'?

Basically, the Biden team is writing a regulation that each community/town/city....has to have some equality plan to ensure equal 'stuff' to blacks, Latinos, Asians and whites. 

However, once you get into these low-cost neighborhoods built (some in the 1960s)....it'll be obvious that it's mostly a black cheapo home landscape.  So the gimmick will be that you need to either force more whites into these neighborhoods, or somehow build new neighborhoods with more black inclusion.

3.  This White House press spokesperson (KJP).....having trouble with the classified documents story?

Well....the story changes day to day, and the White House (really Biden himself) can't really tell her much of anything.  There would appear to be more than a dozen document 'bosses' handling various pieces and parts of this....with marginal coordination.  

4.  University of Pennsylvania in the hot-seat?

House Oversight Committee has asked just how much they are getting in Chinese funds.   They want the answer under 'oath', and I doubt if anyone at the University wants to play this game.  

5.  Has recycling become cult-like or a religion?

Yeah, and the fact that the news media just skips over this should bother people.

6.  This Alec Baldwin voluntary manslaughter charge?

The prosecutor of the county has gotten the charge approved and is proceeding forward.  My guess....it'll be assigned to some junior guy with minimum experience in handling cases like this, and give Baldwin a fighting chance of winning (not-guilty).  

The problem here....the lady armorer is up for the same charge, and she won't have the same legal representation. 

7.  Why was the CIA director in Kiev?

Anyone's guess....but Ukraine is probably asking for more assessments and information that would normally not be given to a non-NATO member.  

8.  This Santos guy (NY's new House member) was a former drag queen (in Brazil)?

Yeah...pictures out there....maybe ten years ago.  And the NY news journalists didn't figure this out until now?

9.  Some BS story that Putin is dead, and a actor is filling his shoes?

Yeah, the rumor is out there....probably a solid '10' on the BS-meter.  

Thursday, 19 January 2023

NZ's Prime Resigns?

 Anything to take out of New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern resigning?

Well....back in 2017....her party won the election and she entered as the new PM.  When Covid arrived in early 2020....she hyped-up a lot of harsh mandates.  

From Jan 2021....on her party was sitting in polls at 48-percent, and leading over all other parties (the number two party was around 27-percent in polling).

By Jan 2022....her party had fallen to 40-percent in polling (mostly angry voters over Covid mandates)..

By this month (2023)....her party sits in 2nd place at 32-percent.  Based on trends....had she stayed and kept the theme going....they would have been near 25-percent when the election comes up in the fall. 

The opposition party (the National Party) has a 8-point lead.  

What you can say is that what good will that Arden had.....diminished month by month, and she really could not grasp the negative effect, with it all leading back to Covid practices.  

Trump, Facebook/Meta, and Twitter

 If you follow the news....Trump now says he wants his old FB account turned on.  Basically, all of the reasons given to dump him off FB originally....are now problems because of the FBI allegations and fake chatter stirred up.  

I'm guessing to please the tech employees (more of a cult group than actual employees)....the Z-man will say no, and some court case will develop.  My guess is that it'll revolve around Florida courts, and end up at the Supreme Court by late fall.  It'll be hard for FB to win this.

As for the idea that he'll return to Twitter?  His team will take on the account and speak for him....via Twitter. 

Going toward spring of 2024 and primary season?  I'd say three obvious things:

1.  Biden needs to be out of the picture entirely....his brand/message....even if he's not running will be a problem each day for the Democratic candidate (likely Newsom) to handle.  

2.  If you thought 2016 and 2020 were hyped-up....you haven't seen anything yet.

3.  All of the 'tricks' used in the five 'bitter' states in 2020?  Well...they've been seen and noted....so repeating the same 'tricks' is going to be next to impossible.  

Social media in 2024....will matter.  

Wednesday, 18 January 2023

Just a Stupid Hunter Question

 Joe's house, was rented to Hunter for a period, and the monthly rent was $49,000.  

If you draw a circle of 2 miles around the house....looking for similar qualities (value of $2-mil)...there are various houses that rent for around $5k to $6k.  

Why would you rent X-house for a whole year, and pay $45,000 more each month?  

(unless you were money-laundering)