Three Obervations

 1.  I watch a number of podcast folks who cover the Russian economy.  One brought up the state of Russian banks....which have been a lot in the news since late 2024.

It appears that  for at least a year....Russian banks have been 'forced' to loan out money to munition-dealers and military-hardware companies.  These loans carried a 20-percentage rate.   

Well....as you might expect...the companies aren't being readily paid by the Russian gov't for their assets provided.

So....2025 is a dwindling situation.....the bank vaults are getting closer to a point where they would fail, and a 'bank-run' would occur.  How the gov't might act then?  I would assume they'd  print Rubles like hell....with the inflation jumping week-by-week.

A financial disaster?  It'd normally turn into a mess, and the World Bank would walk in and give them 'free-money' to rebuild their stability.  But I kinda doubt that Trump and associates would agree to that.

How long did this banking expert give the Russian banks?  He figured late-summer....the collapse would be obvious, and  printing/inflation would follow by the end of 2025.

What happens in 2026?  I'd say that financially....they will rate below Albania.

2.  This idea of shipping certain US prison 'members' off to El Salvador?  

I'm rather shocked that it's openly discussed now.  But I can't see them shipping more than 300.....just to test the 'waters'.

3.  I looked at CNN numbers this AM.....even worse since Christmas.  Some folks say another round of terminations have to occur.

I think they are trying to cheapen the situation enough....that you end up with a sell-off.

Just Pondering

 This week, I probably watched twenty-different video-reports....where stores, cafes, and restaurants were non-operational....because the illegal employees had gone to 'hide-out'.

I pondered over this.

If the guy/gal was illegal (meaning no paperwork)....that meant they should not have had a social security number...yet by the images, the store/restaurant is telling me they hired in a illegal fashion, and thus weren't  paying state taxes, fed taxes,  or social security.

If true?  Well...the managers need a month or two of jail.

So I'm waiting....has to be more to the story.

Observations

 1.  For roughly a decade, there's been a decline in the NBA audience....attributed to a dozen-odd things (high scores is one of them).

So I read this week....the NBA is discussing the idea of  running a 10-minute quarter...rather than 12-minutes.  Their belief....8 less minutes would mean some less scores (I would assume 8 to 15 points less for each team).

2.  There's not a single day that passes....where I don't see the term 'Nazi' uttered.   Oddly, even though they are socialists.....the term is applied to right-wing radical bad socialists (at least that's the pretend-game I'm watching).

3.  I watched Hillbilly Elegy this week (basic story of JD Vance, VP).  I'll just say....'Grandma' is the only reason why the kid succeeded in life.

4.  At some point shortly, I expect  the LGB-community to have a meeting, and escort the T/Q folks out...telling them to start their own 'club'.

5.  H.R. 899 is on the draft-board of the House of Representatives...reads: one sentence bill to TERMINATE the federal department of education.  Will pass the House....Senate, I'm not sure about.

Observations Over The Hearing Business

 Prior to 2017....I probably put a single hour into watching highlights of  cabinet secretaries being reviewed by the Senate every four years. 2017, I probably put in 6 hours.  2021?  I probably watched six to eight hours.  

Over the past two weeks?  I probably watched about 20 hours of watching hearings.  So, some observations:

1.  This crap/BS is mostly a theatrical show.

2.  About half of the Democrats are child-actors at best, or have a IQ-level around 90 (meaning less than average).

3.  RFK? Once he dumped the big-pharma donation business back on Bernie Sanders.....I lost all respect for Bernie.  

4.  The Senate needs reform....no committee should have more than 7 total members.

5.  If you are a Senate member and asking  question.....it has to be no more 20 words.  If you go past that point....some AI-monitoring system should 'red-light' the comment as unanswerable.

To be blunt....it felt like a reality show...not democracy at work.

Netflix Redo of 'Little House On The Prairie'?

I sat yesterday and read through the story.....yeah, there seems to be willing nature to bring up a updated LHotP.  My view of what is to come?

1.  Indian Chief Blue Cloud has kidnapped 'Ma', and found that she's a pain-in-the-ass...releasing her two days later.

2.  Mrs Olsen is screwing around with 'Barney' (the stable-hand).  

3.  There's a small tribe of six Indians living north of Walnut Groove....oddly....all guys, no women.

4.  Halfway through the first season....the school-teacher is found to be an idiot....who can't read/spell, and hallucinates a good bit.

5.  Some local trader comes through and sells some bottles of high-content cocaine-like stuff...that drives Walnut Groove people crazy for  24 hours.

6.  Mr Olsen opens up a saloon.

7.  Mr Olsen leaves his wife at the end of season one, but returns to  her by end of season two....admitting he needs to be controlled. 

This Trump-Guantanamo-EO

 Yesterday, Trump indicated that there will be a situation where the bad-boy illegal guys (with serious charges), will be picked up....taken to a plane, flown into Guantanamo Bay's military facility, face charges/conviction there, an probably spend their sentence there (unless their home-country takes them back).

How many?  Well....no one says, but there's some indication that several thousand will end up there.

A shock for the bad-boys?  Oh, I'd say once the guy lands in Guantanamo and figures out the whole landscape ahead of him (maybe the rest of his life there)....it might be pretty dramatic.

What I think will develop here?  Trump will eventually offer countries like Libya or Chad....some deal.  If you take thirty of the convicted bad-boys....here's 30-million dollars.  

People getting bothered by this?  Oh yeah, but basically....these weren't like 99-percent of the other folks who are trying hard to make it.

Trump 'Deal'

 What President Donald Trump has laid out....if you work for the federal gov't....you can get a buy-out....worth seven months’ salary....if you opt-out to leave the job by Feb. 6. 

So you have a week a week....more or less...to take the deal.

If you remain past 6 Feb, and get terminated.....your deal will be a lot less than seven months of salary.

I would imagine at least 100k folks are sitting at the table and talking to their spouse about the deal.

If you were on a GS salary of $110k a year? You were making $9100 a month (before taxes/social security).  Trump's deal would get you $64k roughly.  

A plan?  Well....you are probably existing in a job-situation  that begs  questions. If you were around 62....you'd take the cash...retire early and sell the Maryland/Virginia house....escaping off to Tennessee or Iowa.

If  you were age 55?  This would scare the crap out of you....you need five to seven more years to reach a safe point.

If you were in your 30s? Absolute fear.

My humble guess? I'll suggest that 10,000 take the deal....with another 30,000 waking up in June....grasping their job is gone and they can't get a 7-month  deal.