Calling Oregon a Trump-Win State

 Normally, Oregon would go to the Democrats....in most all elections of the past fifty years.  I think it's close enough in reality now....to be a Trump-win.

Observations:

In 2016, Trump carried 782k votes (39-percent of the vote).  Libertarian candidate Johnson?  He took 4.7 percent (94k votes).  Johnson is around in this election, and the Libertarian candidate isn't attracting that much attention.  So I would suggest 50k votes going from this group in 2020, to Trump.

Added to it....around the five major urban areas of the state....this defund the police effort, rioting, looting....has escalated local feelings in a negative way.  So I'm forecasting roughly 120k of Hillary's 1-million votes in 2016....will go to Trump.

Finally, when you go and count the Latino and black vote in the state.....which the vast number in 2016 went to Clinton....I would suggest that near 20k of such votes this time around....will go to Trump.

By my math....190k votes flipping to Trump.  The unknown factor?  How many democrats got sour and left for the Republicans in the past year or two?  Difference without knowing this number between Trump and Biden....probably a difference of only 3k to 5k.  Biden might still win, but this unknown factor of Democrats who left the party is what would make it a Trump-win.  

Shocker?  At the end of this evening, if Trump were to win Oregon....it's be a massive state of disbelief among far-left folks in the state, and likely to trigger more riots in Portland (once again).  

Camp Idea

 Over the past couple of years, I've come to note a number of young people (mostly college-age or in their early 30s)....jabbering about the great advantages of living a highly socialist world.  They usually mean Finland, Germany or Iceland.  

Their general problem, is that they've never been to these places, and they certainly don't have a frame of reference for what they are talking about.

Added to this....they'd like for the government to set income levels, pricing for housing, and see that that no company makes any profit.  In simple terms....no poor people, no rich people. 

So I'd like to put a suggestion out there....around age 15....to send kids off for the summer to 'Camp Soviet'.  It'd be a four-week experience where you get dumped into a 1970s Soviet-type kid's camp.  You give them the whole experience of communism and socialism, for four weeks.  

I suspect after that month-long experience....they'd get all of this out of their system, and never talk about this ever again.  

The Coyote Talk

 There are several topics which came over the Trump-Biden debate which seem to linger as folks talk about them.

The 'Coyotes' are one such topic.

Trump got into a border-type discussion, and talked about how 'Coyotes' are helping to bring the illegals over the border, and pro-migration folks (liberals) are drifting around on this....thinking Trump is crazy, and the term 'Coyotes' means actual animals.  

In their mind, you (the illegal) just walk up and cross the border on your own.

The reality?  In most all cases, as you near the border on the Mexican side....you have the Coyote-guides who you pay.....several hundred dollars to....to get you to the border and hopefully five to ten miles into the US....maybe even have a truck there to pick you and get you 300 miles away into the US (safely).

In the liberal mind, you (the illegal) do this all on your own.

It kinda demonstrates the lack of understanding on  their part.....with a key subject apparently, and the desire to just believe in some fantasy.  

On this part, Trump is correct.  

Newest Worry for Tesla Factory in Germany

 RBB (Berlin public TV) got around to an interesting update on the Tesla factory being put up about 45 minutes SE of Berlin.

The local water association.....Strausberg-Erkner Water Association (WSE)...started chatting this week over a fear that they will not be able to supply Tesla with water on a long-term basis.

Their direct thoughts?  Basically a two-year supply or reserve on hand, and then the water would be turned off.

True or not?  Unknown.  A lot of criticism has been generated in this area to hinder or halt the placement of this factory.  In terms of reacting and putting in more reserves or drilling for more wells?  Well....no one seems to say a word, and you kinda wonder if they are extremely set in a pattern, without change.

If the factory construction halts, and the whole thing goes away....to say....Czech?  You would basically mark off all of eastern Germany as unable to accept a factory or desiring to create jobs.  For almost thirty years.....this lack of job creation has been talked about greatly in what was old DDR (East Germany).  So along comes the first real company to talk technology type jobs, and then hindering the progress.

Added to this whole discussion.....this entire region (southeast of Berlin) is full of lakes and there appears to be an abundant watershed in the region.  If you have a shortage....get the state government involved.....drill wells, and lay out pipes to the WSE site.  

Or if this is all too much to handle....just say so, and let the factory go to Czech.  I'm sure they know how to handle situations like this.  

Wind Generators, Dead Birds, and Trump

 Trump laid out a comment at the debate which got pro-Biden people upset.  The comment?  It centered on wind generators producing dead birds, and one reason why they might not be the greatest answer in the world. 

So, around twenty years ago, I sat and watched a German documentary piece which was supposed to hype people on wind generators.  

The public TV crew arrived in early AM hours at a site (3 x generators).  Here was 'Marvin', the guy who was supposed to spend about 60 minutes at the site, and he had responsibility over a dozen sites.  

Marvin got out of the van, and opened the back to take out a plastic glove and a garbage bag.  The crew asked....what's that for?  Marvin walks over and picks up a dead bird and then explains....the birds hit the blades...killing themselves.  They kinda cut at that point, and go to Marvin at the control box....writing down numbers and inspecting things.  

How many birds did Marvin pick up? Unknown.  From the three generators.....there might have been a dozen birds laying there....to be picked up daily.  

I noticed about a month ago.....some crew had experimented and painted the blades black.  Just about all blades in Germany are white presently.  In this experiment, they discovered that birds see the black blades and avoid them.  You would have thought that they would have tested this color idea two decades ago.

This imaginary shock by pro-environmental folks with Trump?  Well....Trump is correct....the wind generators kills birds, period. 

Five States in the Game for 2020

1.  New Mexico.  Clinton won NM mostly in 2016 because of the Libertarian candidate (Johnson)....carrying 9.3-percent of the vote in the state.  Johnson won't be around in 2020, and I doubt if the libertarian candidate can get more than 3-percent of the vote.  

If you count those votes returning to Trump, then toss in police disenchanted folks (active and retired)....it probably will be a narrow race where 3k votes might separate Trump and Biden.  Toss in the factor as well....McMuffin....is also not in this race, so there's another 5k votes which you can't really identify who might get them.

My best guess is that Trump marginally will win because of this Libertarian situation.  Latinos for Trump here?  It might actually matter.  Probably a 3-point difference between Trump and Biden in this situation.

2.  Colorado.  Clinton won Col by 130k votes.  The Libertarian situation in 2016?  144k.  So I'm forecasting that fewer than 35k Libertarian votes will occur in 2020, and that 100k votes easily side with Trump on this election.  Again, you toss in the police de-fund situation, with active and retired folks....there's probably another 50k votes across the state which will side with Trump on this occasion.

My best guess is that Trump will marginally take Colorado....maybe by 50k to 80k votes.

3.  Minnesota.  McMuffin took 53k votes in 2016, and those votes have to go elsewhere in 2020.  Same story with the Libertarian effort in 2016 (112k vote).  Toss in the de-fund the police anger, police votes, and those affected by the looting and riots.  

My best guess is that Trump edges upward from his 2016 count (1.32-million) to around 1.5 million....more than enough to easily win the state.  It might be a six-point win for Trump here.  

4.  California.  McMuffin and Libertarians took around 510k votes in 2016.  I'd carve off 300k of these votes and give them to Trump in 2020.  I'd also be generous and say say that 500k votes for Hillary Clinton in 2016....will flip (mostly because of the riots, looting, negativity existing in SF).  Toss in a higher black/Latino vote as well for Trump.  

My best guess is that Trump will take near 6-million votes....way better than 2016, but not enough to win.  Joe Biden wins, but it's a shaky win in several areas (especially around LA).  Having Harris on the ballot in California probably doesn't help much. 

5.  Finally.....Michigan.  Trump marginally won in 2016.  If you toss out McMuffin, and half the Libertarian votes....toss in the defund-the-police chatter, looting and rioting.....added black votes this time around....there's probably an added 350k votes this time around to whatever Trump had four years ago.

My best guess is that Trump carries a 8-point lead over Joe Biden to the end.  Trump-win easily.

Observations

 1.  99-percent of people who take a item to be repaired.....know the 'deal'....you sign the bottom to return and pay for the services at the end, to get your property back.  So it's hard for the bulk of society to grasp how Hunter Biden turned over three laptops, and just simply 'walked-away'.  

My belief?  I think he was fairly doped up when he dropped them off, and forget all about them. 

2.  These 50 top VIP intelligence folks coming out for Joe Biden?

This is the basic story.  These 50-odd individuals were all part of the Clinton, Bush and Obama intelligence leadership.  They believe their statement in supporting will reshape the election.

The effect? I would suggest they converted zero votes.  This was more of a 'dog-and-pony' show, to give the networks some hyped-up chatter.  

3.  This court case being developed against Google, by the Justice Department...any big worries?

Google, in its heart and mind....believe even if it reaches an end-stage....it'll just be a fine of a half-billion dollars, and life will go on.

However, the intent here....to demonstrate to Facebook and Twitter....might be to force Google into dividing up it's business (like what happened to AT&T).  In that case, Google might be fairly unhappy about the results.

4.  All this censorship chatter by the Washington Post....aimed at Trump?

Basically, they wrote up an editorial piece and suggested that social media must censor Trump, from now until the election.....to correct his behavior.

People looking at this....might then ask....shouldn't the Washington Post just stop production of all election news....till the day after the election as well?  We might all agree....massive censorship for the entire last month....by EVERYONE....would be a brilliant idea.

5.  Russian 'disinformation'?

I know, it gets repeated almost fifty times a minute now, by various news groups.  None of them can explain how it's Russian, and not Chinese, or not of a French origin.  

6.  Boeing putting it's Seattle-area headquarters up for sale?

Well....it's a rumor that they've packaged the real estate and would like to sell.  The odds of anyone offering money?  I'd put it near 1-percent.  

The message here?  Things around Seattle aren't that appealing now, and for a commercial operation....that's a bad sign.

7.  Around two weeks ago....this big massive 'Trump' sign appeared in the Hollywood hills, and freaked folks out.

Yesterday, a 2nd Trump sign appeared.

8.  What happens to Hunter in the end?

This new piece with the underage girls video?  The Delaware Police have the video and are piecing the story together.  At the very least...one might suspect that Hunter will be detained in the next month, and have to stand for some court action.  If convicted....a minimum of a year out of this.  

At that point, I see Hunter at the end of the 'glory' period, and no real income after he gets out of jail.  Maybe he's still got 10-million dollars stashed away somewhere and just quietly lives out the rest of his life.