What If Plan 'A' Was Something Else Entirely Different?

 I worked with a guy in the 1990s who went and bought a 2-year old vehicle.  In the purchase agreement.....it was written that he (the new owner) could return the vehicle within ten days and get all his money back (NO LOSS).  No reason had to be given.  On the 9th day....my associate did return the vehicle, and got every penny back.

I sat there today looking at the Twitter-Elon deal, and all this chatter by Twitter employees....that they might damage/screw-up/harm Twitter before the deal is wrapped....to harm Elon.

My humble belief is that Elon probably wrote a two-line statement into the purchase deal....kinda like my co-worker in  the 1990s.....if they really tarnished or screwed up the App/program.....the deal would be off.

The odds of this happening?  I'm of the mind....better than a 50-percent chance.

If this were to occur?  Public trust of Twitter would dissolve in a matter of days, and probably half the users would walk out the back-door....never to return.  Viability or surviving this?  It won't happen.

So in their effort to destroy Elon, in some weird way....they'd destroy the company and never bring a bit of harm to Musk.

The end?  Well....no, then Elon would come to the board in twelve months and instead of 43-billion dollars....he could offer 3-billion for a broken-down crappy company that the employees destroyed themselves.  

In some weird way....this might be plan 'A' and Elon knew this would be the best way to defeat the 'poison-pill' idea.  

Mad Max

 Around 40 years ago, I sat at a theater and watched the 1979 version of Mad Max.....which I kinda enjoyed.  

The script?  Mostly about some revenge stuff....death here and there...in the midst of a oil-crisis and a breakdown in society.  If you asked me who wrote the script....I would have said some 16-year old kids....mostly tanked-up on beer.  I've probably watched once or twice since then.

Last night, the 2015 Mad Max version came on (Fury Road).....which I'd never watched.

If you asked me the theme?

I'd say mostly meth-head guys, on some crazed fit in the desert (maybe Australia), and a whole lot of minute-by-minute destruction going on.  

The skinhead guys?  If you crossed Bath Salts, meth and cocaine....giving out a fair amount to folks....that was mostly the storyline.  Who wrote the script?  I'd be guessing mostly sixth-grade kids.  Nothing made sense.

I lasted for about 40 minutes and then just gave up.  

Twitter People Hyped To 'Leave'?

 I read a piece today....some folks analyzing Twitter employee commentaries....that if this Elon Musk deal occurs....they will rush to pack their bags,  leave the company, and America (suggesting they'd move to 'safe' Canada).

I paused over this for ten minutes.

Personally, with the exception of Vancouver.....in about 90-percent of Canada....after one single winter....most wussy Americans would pack quickly and return to America.

People who get this hyped-up and always make this 'I'm-gonna-leave' statement....always say something like this but haven't done any real planning.  

Personally.....I'd say fine and let me help you in any way possible.  But I think 90-percent of folks would give up about six weeks into a real winter, and beg to return. 

Five Things

 1.  There's a bit of hype building up (going several years now) about Starbucks and unionization.  Some folks think the union thing will happen shortly for Starbucks.....I'm less likely to believe that.

One obvious thing....the average cost of a Starbucks non-description coffee is around $2.75.  If you go union.....that will likely rise to $3.20 minimum.  

I'd just ask the question.....just how many regular people would be willing to pay for something like that?

2.  I read a survey (AP/NORC) that suggested that 49-percent of Democrats think that Joe Biden is leading the nation in the wrong direction. Course, on Republicans....it was near 93-percent.

If this were any normal President....he'd be worried over the numbers and asking what can we do?  But he doesn't seem that worried....neither are his 'helpers'.  

Something about this.....doesn't make any sense.  It's like having four low-air tires on your car, and people pointing to them while driving.....yet just grinning as they pass you.

3.  If I were a ethnic-Russian-Ukrainian....having lived forty years of my life in eastern Ukraine....seeing the massive amount of damage, and having some Russian conscript guys arrive for some military parade and them expecting me to appreciate their damage done.....I'd be shaking my head, and probably looking to move elsewhere.   There's just no future.

4.  I think about 10-percent of Americans now suffer from Covid-anxiety, and I doubt that they will recover from this....for the remainder of their lives (big deal if they are approaching 20 years old now).  I'll add....if you were single prior to the Covid era....now having Covid-anxiety....it's going to be hard to find someone who shares your anxiety feeling.  

5.  Twitter deal?  Elon will own the company within 30 days.....it's a sure bet now.  For the Twitter universe.....there's about to be 'snap' by Elon-Thanos, and folks are mostly cheering him on.  For some Twitter employees, it's the end of the universe.  

Here's the thing....if he's right....Twitter will correct itself (probably in one year), and will be a profitable company.  Then the question is.....what's left to change?  Meta-Facebook?  Microsoft?  Google?  

As healthy as he looks....he's got twenty-plus years to reshape the universe.  

My Prediction Over Disney

 Presently, the DIS stock situation is around $118 per share (down from a year ago when it was at $186....meaning a loss of about 36-percent in one-year).  

They were hurt to a great extent by Covid, marginal tourism for two years, and movies hitting the theaters with no audience return because of the virus.

So, my general prediction:

1.  Toward the last two months of 2022....I think the stock will fall to around $82 (losing another 30-percent).

2.  Of the ten board members....by the close of 2022....at least four of them will have resigned.  

3.  A hostile take-over chat will start by early 2023 (before the next stock-holder meeting), with the stock probably around the high $40s at that point.  Several IRA/mutual funds will have dumped their holdings because of the continuing downward trend.  This will speed-up the decline of value for the stock.  Some analysts will remark that somewhere around the 2010 era, when the stock was valued at $40....that was probably where it should have lingered and they are way-overvalued.  

4.  The take-over?  I think it'll be a partnership involving Sony and at least three travel companies.

5.  Disney will then be bought (forced to the table) and carved up.  The cruise business, hotels, and theme parks will be all controlled by the travel companies.  Sony will end up with the studio and streaming video service.  

6.  People will notice in the first week of new ownership....of the top one-hundred executives with Disney....less than five will remain (the rest are let go).

7.  Somewhere in this distribution business....the state of Florida will be offered one or two of the business fronts, for a sum of ten-billion....to help finance the whole deal.  They will turn the deal down.  

8.  Over the course of 2023/2024....at least twenty different books will be written about the 'fall' of Disney and how they designed their failure.  

9.  Some country-and-western singer will write a tune about 'Walt' weeping off in a bar.....someone done him wrong kind of tune, and they-took-his-woman sorrow theme.  

10.  The Marvel and Star Wars 'stuff'?  It will be carved off and sold to Warner Brothers....to help finance the takeover. 

Dick Allen, Elon Musk and the 'Bat Theory'

 For those who weren't aware of it....most baseball bats used in the sport today....weigh between 33 and 36 ounces.  

Several decades ago....there was this one baseball player by the name of Dick Allen.  You can say a number of things about the guy (he played in the 1960s/1970s, was brash/blunt, two decades ahead of his time, and probably was one of the top ten players of baseball during this timeframe).  

Dick Allen did something which was unique though....he carried around a baseball bat which weighed 42 ounces.  No one is going to say that he came up to the plate each time with the 42 ounce bat.....but he had it, and when necessary....that was his 'weapon'.  

When you look at the Twitter/Musk battle going on....Elon has an interesting 'bat' in his collection....if the purchase of the media company goes through.

Elon would have all of this data and directives used for the past decade....which was used for keeping conservative 'content' off the media platform.   He could call in 'Larry' and ask for such-and-such information....to discover various meetings were held....where people just said in a blunt way.....'dump' this content, or hold this person off the platform.

Yes....names and facts start to get put out in public.  Even the former board members would be dragged up and labeled as 'problems'.

Conversations with private governments (like Germany for example) would be opened up and discussed to some degree.  Or Elon could say those would be kept private....if you give me a 'gift' or two.  

So what Musk is buying has tons of potential or limited potential....depending how he wants to show off his 'bat'.  

He's not just buying a company....he's buying all of this private information that was supposed to stay private.  So you can understand the fight going on, and why they are so desperate to protect the secret side of Twitter.

Yeah, About That De-Escalation Stuff

 Forty years ago, in a public commerce setting (Dairy Queen, local sports bar, tire shop)....you didn't have any real escalation episodes develop.

What I mean by escalation episodes?  Well....a situation where a customer has a nervous fit, mental breakdown, frustration falling-out, toxic personal crisis.....and they can't handle 'bad' news.  

An example would be that they ordered a club sandwich......expecting it in 12 minutes, and waited almost thirty minutes to get what you'd say is a really crappy marginal sandwich.  In today's world.....they go ballistic, and will spend the next thirty minutes trying to talk to the manager.....finding that talking gets them nowhere.

This week, I noticed a Seattle video-blog where the guy talked about an imitative to being in employees for a de-escalation training episode.  You would be talking about four hours....on how to handle a person having a personal crisis, and being unable to handle bad news.

How bad is this crisis business?  You really don't know. 

In some rural communities....like in a ice cream shop or burger-bar?  You might have some crisis-lite guy once every two or three months.  

In some of these highly urbanized areas?  I bet you could have a four-star crisis-guy almost every hour.

The thing you notice.....we seem to be 'breeding' these crisis-freaks in abundance.  They seem to be wanting to demonstrate more and more of their limited patience and juvenile behavior.  

Common people able to handle 12-year-old kids in adult clothing with no patience?  No....it's just not a talent that we felt was important in society.

Could I handle this type of situation?  I'm mostly the type to let you talk for three minutes straight....to get the frustrations out, and then hold out my hand to suggest that we need to pray to the Lord for a good final outcome.  If that didn't work....I'd pull out the cheapo fire hose and give you about three gallons of water to your face to bring you to reality.  

It'd be best that you don't hire me to manage things.