South Africa Chatter

 Around two weeks ago in South Africa.....a bill passed which lays out the framework to 'grab' farmland, orchards and vineyards in the country....owned by whites, and to place them into the ownership of native blacks.

A done deal?  Not quiet yet....it has to pass via the National Council of Provinces (their version of the Senate).  

The basic deal?  They aren't saying 100-percent of the farmland will be taken, but when the order is given.....there will be no payment for the 'grab' (expropriation without compensation is in effect).  

For about five years, I've followed the talk, and while in South Africa....I had a conversation or two with locals about how this would work, and how it would fail.

First, most people believe there is a list floating around that notes the top one-hundred profitable farms, vineyards and orchards in the nation.....with those being the primary ones to be taken.  

The receiving parties?  You never hear much chatter about this but locals general believe it'll all be relatives or 'kids' of African National Congress party members.  It won't matter if they have a farming background or not.

It is my belief that the national and regional banks are in a state of fear of this moment arriving.....with various farmers having massive loans and the white farmers losing their property....immediately leaving the country.  The banks being stuck with losses?  More than likely.  The government grasping this?  No....don't anticipate that.

Those acquiring the vineyards and thinking their product can go right onto the world market, with the same label and name?  No.....don't count on that.  I expect several markets to force a new wine label name.  These new and incoming owners having any knowledge of the wine business?  No.....that's probably problem.

Farm equipment quietly exiting South Africa for Namibia? I would suspect right now.....tractor trailer rigs are taking assets across the border, and there will be a shortage on tractors for the incoming new owners.

All of this leading to a food shortage?  Yes.....without much doubt....for 2023, 2024 and 2025....there's going to be a shortage in the common goods you'd normally buy.

I would anticipate this farm grab to be described as a 5-star failure by the end of 2025.  

Trans Women Biden 'Rule'

 I noticed this yesterday.....the Biden Administration came out and said if you were born a male, and did a trans situation (saying you are now female)....by law, you have to go and register yourself for the 'draft' (Selective Service).

The odds that trans women will do this?  No one says much.  I personally have my doubts that any of them....upon reaching 18....will go and sign a government form indicating they are male, when they are trans women. 

All of this coming to be a mess for Congress to clean up?  Yeah, my humble view is that it'll be challenged in court and require some kind of law change.

Three Things I've Noticed

 1.  There's some Canadian court reviewing the idea of banning the Canadian government from sending migrants/immigrants back across the border....to the US, because they think it's too dangerous there in the US.  

Yeah, it's a bit weird, but if you asked me if things were safe in Seattle or Portland....just in general....I'd say no.

2.  If you went and asked adults to define adjectives, nouns, pronouns, and verbs....probably less than 50 percent of adults can give you a decent explanation.

3.  I had a chance recently to watch 1974's 'Hercules in New York', with 'Arnold'.  I got about 15 minutes into it, and turned it off. It was truly one of the worst movies I've seen in my life.

Armageddon

 The first time I ever heard the word mentioned in my life (Armageddon)....was some Baptist revival in the early 1970s, and the visiting minister had chosen to use the book of Revelation (last book of the New Testament).

To be honest, it is the most untouchable book of the entire Bible (Old and New Testament).  I should note that it's original language is Greek....not from the tribal language of the Judah region.  The guy who wrote the piece?  'John' is mentioned but most don't think it's the John that most folks thought of.  

Why untouched?  It describes future events, and is a pretty dismal projection of the future to come.  

Armageddon as a word?  It was some place where the battle of all battles was to be fought, and leaving a lot of people in misery and woes.  It was supposed to be the moment where good people came to fight evil people.....with the good winning in the end.  You usually get some wordy piece where the wicked folks all die off in the Armageddon.....with only good folks standing around.

This week, President Biden used the word....trying to assign it to the Russians and Putin.  Without really saying it.....you got the impression that the Russians can only be the bad and wicked folks, in the end.

I should note here that Norse folks (Vikings, Icelandic folks and Danes)....also have a word for use in this manner....called 'Ragnarok'.  It typically means this great battle or disaster has occurred, and a 'cleansing' action is underway afterwards.....where the good people (survivors of course) go forth and repopulate the world (meaning partying, lusty women, and things return to normal).  

The difference between Armageddon and Ragnarok?   Most folks are negative about Armageddon.....seeing it as a ordeal and bunch of dead folks at the end, while the Viking got excited about Ragnarok because boozing-up and partying were part of the end-result.  Kinda funny how the two groups saw things.  

The Right Stuff Dating App

This past week....a dating app opened which mostly relates to conservatives guys and gals.  The logic here is that things have deteriorated enough....that liberals only want to hang out with liberals, and conservatives are going the same way.

I sat and pondered upon this.

In the 1970s, your political angle in life didn't really amount to much.  Your key status on date success?  Can you dance?  Can you socialize and be all chatty without the use of alcohol?  Do you have any funny stories?  Does your date success go beyond bowling?  

Personally, I don't think this political bickering and limits on dating started....until you get to social media (Twitter/Facebook) being offered up in the 2008 to 2012 timeframe.

Will the dating App work?  I'm fairly skeptical.  

To be honest, with 90-percent of 25 to 35 year old guys who say they are conservatives....they are looking for some gal who is a bit flirty (10-percent slutty-status)...who gets a bit reckless on occasion....bowls in the 150 range....drinks beer from both a glass and a can.....has a passion for college football on Saturdays....knows the difference between Marvel and DC.....and doesn't mind a gal who dresses fairly poorly or has a 1980s fashion-statement.  

What I expect to happen?  A number of female leftists will toy with the idea of joining up and participating in this conservative dating effort......to prove a point.  But along the way....they discover that the liberal-but-fake-conservative gal is falling for the genuine conservative guy.  Then the problem comes up....how you explain to the poor guy that you misled him, and are really a ironclad Democrat, who is pumped up still about Hillary.  

This won't end well.  

"Just Leave' Chatter

 As days lead onto weeks, and weeks onto months.....the war in the Ukraine continues.  

This week....the Finnish PM (Sanna Marin) was asked about how to end the war, and she had this simple quote: “The way out of the conflict is for Russia to leave Ukraine. That’s the way out of the conflict.”

In truth, Putin has an agenda which has existed since the middle of 2021 in his mind.....that a little war can occur....territory can be taken, and the glory of the Putin-era can be 'crowned'.  Stuff of legends....so to speak.

Presently, I believe Putin still believes he holds some 'royal flush' in his hand at the poker table.  There may be 50,000 dead Russian conscripts in the mix, 700,000 Russians who've left the country, and a 20-year rebuilding (costly) campaign that the country really can't afford.....but there's some propaganda 'pay-off' once the Ukrainians just say they surrender.

This week, the Nobel Peace Prize guys decided to get into the middle of this, and awarded the Peace Prize to a Russian group (anti-Putin folks).....who promptly found that their headquarters in Moscow has been confiscated by the state for illegal existence.

There are three things that I'm waiting on to play out:

1.  By Feb 2023, I expect around 10,000 of these newly drafted-up Russian reservists to walk up with white flags and surrender in the Ukraine. It'll probably reach a stage where buses will be at the Ukrainian border, and hauling the guys (now in some sports gear instead of military gear) off to France and Germany where they are given some asylum paperwork.  Their families will be quietly accepted as part of the deal (my bet).

2.  Alcoholism will be 'branded' as the major problem in the activation of the 300,000 reservists arrive and are unable to function in daily warfare or military lifestyle....without a significant amount of booze.  

3.  Some Russian journalists will stumble upon the problem of a dozen commanders per week being killed by their own men, and get lectured by Moscow that you can't talk or mention this ongoing problem.

There's going to be a 'legend' written at the end of this war, but it won't be very kind to Putin's belief in himself. 

What'll Happen To Twitter?

 I suggest five things:

1.  I think people who are of the far left extreme....in the first week of Musk ownership....will dissolve their account and try to survive via Facebook.  

2.  I think around two million Americans who did not have a Twitter account prior to this....will venture over and become Twitter users....meaning of a neutral or right-wing variety.

3.  I think Twitter will matter in the final ten days of the mid-term election, and swing some voters away from Democratic candidates.

4.  I think regular everyday type users of Twitter.....won't notice a single thing different.

5.  Finally, as unprofitable as Twitter is currently....I think the same situation will occur under Elon Musk.  However, I expect the headquarters to up and move (to a tax-friendly state), and the operations center to non-west-coast state.  By this move, more than 40-percent of the cost of running the operation.....will dissolve in a matter of one year.