Four Humble Thoughts Over The Demonstrations On College Campuses

 1.  Having seen some of the media interactions/interviews with the riot-players....I question how bright they seem....if attending college, and would ask.....is it possible to get a refund on your tuition if you are that 'stupid'.

2.  Looking at the destruction elements....at the end, someone has to clean up the mess and repair the buildings. This means a cost-factor.  I'm just guessing....for the August 2025 tuition 'number'....go start figuring a 30-to-40 percent increase on tuition.

3.  Trying to stay on this 'topic' for more than three days?  Personally, I just don't see  more than five minutes of interest in a 12-hour viewing cycle.  I'd have more interest with the Braves infield after spring-training, or Biden's walking style.

4.  If you handed a map to the protest-university crowd and asked them to point out the Gaza Strip....I doubt if 5-percent could locate it on a map.

Tuition Chatter

 This past weekend, I was clearing out stuff and came to a 1976 notebook.  

In that fall (I was in the 11th grade)....they had bused us all to some county 'opportunities' day.  Here were five or six colleges....number of trade of schools, and the military recruitment folks.

My conversation with the Auburn/Univ of Alabama folks?  Yearly tuition was $1,500...books were $250, and a whole year of room/board was priced at $1,700 roughly.  I wrote all this into the notebook.

The trouble in assessing all of this...I had no idea of a real occupation or path.  

The military recruitment folks?  The Navy guy seemed hyped-up to interest me.  Marines....less so.  The Air Force had me sold but then the pay thing came up....E1 equaled $400 a month (taking out taxes/SS....you made around $300 a month). 

That Friday night came and I spent two hours thinking over this, and concluded on numbers....the Air Force path made more sense.

Funny, I kept the notebook over the years.  

If you tried to price Auburn today?  Year of tuition is around $12.5k....books around $1,200, and room/board near $15.4k.  Then you come to beer, insurance, and extra pocket-money....probably near $8k a year.

An Election Rule Or Two You Might Want To Remember

In the event we pass the Democratic Convention (19 August to 23 August), and something happens to President Biden....to say he's out as a candidate (health issues one might assume)....what happens?

Well....the Democrats are 'empowered' to fill the empty seat, and it does NOT have to be the VP moving up.  In this case, the party chair would have a talk with with Democratic governors and House/Senate leadership.

In this scenario, I believe it's entirely possible that both the President/VP seats would change out.  

States in a position to say 'no'?  There are two states which have ironclad rules about changing the names after mid-August.  So unless lawsuits occur.....there would be two states denying the name change.

The Republican?  If Trump were knocked out? the Republican National Committee has a rule offering a 2nd national convention or itself (the RNC) could select a new candidate.

Am I suggesting an Oswald-like scenario?  No....but if you asked me....how many FBI or CIA Oswalds currently exist in the US....I would laugh and suggest over 100 easily.

If you suddenly crossed both Joe and Kam off the list in mid-September through this scenario?  In a matter of just a month....Joe would be forgotten, and Kam acting as President....would get almost zero media attention.

Just a curious thing to think about.  

The Slacker Generation

 We had a term in the 1970s/1980s in the Air Force....that we used almost daily....'slacker'.

A 'slacker' was a guy (usually) who didn't put much effort into his work, or his life.  This was the junior airman who wore clothing until it had a ton of body order....meaning he washed his clothing maybe once a month.  This was the guy who mostly hung around the barracks.....if they could find a way to get out of work/duty, then they put effort into that....and they rarely did anything worth discussing except watch TV.

Yeah, a slacker was a loser.

So it occurred to me this week....there's hundreds of thousand of these 18-to-29 year old slackers now existing in America.....living out of dad's house, and doing little in the way of progressing or getting ahead in life.

The trouble here?  Well....slackers don't vote.  They also don't date or get into relationships.  They don't get credit cards....mostly because they have no income.  The Democratic or Republican parties having anything to offer slackers?  No.

Are they even interested in leaving or getting a job?  There's no indicator of that.

As this group grows in the next decade....what exactly can any politician offer....to make them happy?

The College Demonstrations After The Smoke Clears

 Ten thoughts:

1.  I don't see any of these ending by mid-summer or the start of fall classes.  

2.  I think these demonstrations will continue through the Democratic Convention and be a major problem for the city of Chicago.

3.  Nationwide?  I'll predict a minimum of 500 police file disability papers because of injuries.  End cost for police units throughout the US will exceed $1-billion for health cost, and early retirement.

4.  At least 300 lawsuits will be created against both private and public universities for failing to provide education and safety.  Some of these will roll through all of 2025, and even to the end of 2026.  Total cost?  Five-billion-dollars.

5.  Tuition upgrades/cost?  Just for this fall semester, I would imagine schools like Columbia (currently at $66k a year)....will move the tuition close to $71k for next year.  The increase for August 2025?  Probably closer to $79k.  

6.  The donation crowd to the big-name university operations?  They will quietly up and leave.  

7.  Several national corporations will make it clear.....they aren't interested in graduates from the affected universities....leaving over 20,000 2024/2025 graduates standing there with limited job prospects.  The Justice Department will attempt to 'punish' the corporations, but find zero respect.

8.  In several southern states, the protest folks will be shocked that their acts got them into a 5-year potential jail-sentence, and the legal help provided.....has little to offer for a deal.  Upon entering state prisons....most will find the educational level of the prisoners equal to their college-level, and ask how that was possible.

9.  Some leaker within the FBI will admit they are tracking well over $100-million coming in to support the demonstrations from Iran, China and Russia.  Congress will ask why they aren't doing anything, with the answer leading back  to Biden's circle.

10.  The question nationally will be asked.....if 18-year-old kids are going to college and coming out four years later....more stupid....why go to college?  

Homework Chatter

 I saw this California story today....over a draft bill....AB2999.  The bill more or less.....says there's too much homework, and teachers need to craft homework to be LESS.  

Trigger here?  The idea is.....too much stress for kids.

I pondered over this.  As a kid in rural Alabama...at best, I had about 45 minutes of homework per day dumped on me.  But with a pause here and there....I'd done about 20 minutes of this before leaving school at 3PM.  The rest I did by 9 PM that night.

So I'm wondering....are they dumping three hours of homework on kids in California?  Are kids too busy to do homework?  

Just begs a lot of questions.

The Banking 'Issue'

 The simple nature of this banking 'problem'?

Well....you have a bank that thought commercial real estate....from hotels to malls...could be built, developed and operated...paying back the bank for its involvement in acceptable risk.  

So Covid came along, and whatever strategy existed for office buildings, theaters, hotels, stores, or even bank buildings themselves....could not focus and carry on....paying the bank loan back.

The bank's problem?  Well...it was now stuck with a structure of a present value (say $10-million) when the bank loan from 2018 (20 years) was for $60-million.  Selling it for faked-up value?  Now impossible.

Then you add the car problem....where people were convinced that a $80k car was reasonable, and over eight years of your stable job situation....you could pay the loan back.  Well....that strategy also went south.

The bank recovers the $80k 2-year old car, which probably is worth $45k max at present, but the loan money missing is $12,000.  The used car market presently?  That's also part of the story....so the car probably won't sell for more than $40k.

Credit card also in the mix?  Yes.    Some folks stand there with $20,000 in debt, and can't make the minimum of $1,000 a month.  

Home loans?  Same story.

Cities with loans?  If you had 40-odd businesses shut down over the past year.....you probably aren't making as much on property tax or sales tax.  

Did we have this type of mess in 1929?   No.  That bank failure era was mostly due to mismanagement of the vault contents.....with the bank books and the contents not being equal.  

FDIC having the assets to cover this?  No. 

What I tend to expect?  Three things:

1.  I expect some rushed-up meetings with the Fed and the White House....probably by early July.  The Fed will quietly admit a minimum of 20 bank failures to arrive by the conclusion of July.

2.  I expect the full point lessen on the prime rate.....to simply speed things up on the collapse.

3.  At some point in mid-July, I expect a Monday night live speech by the President to reassure the public. 

4.  Shortly after the speech....I expect gold and Bit-Coin to jump in a massive way.  At this point, more than 40-million Americans will attempt to remove cash from their accounts....ONLY to find that there is a cash-limit of $250 per day, and $750 per week.

5.  I expect by mid-August....more than half the banks in the US are under some type of review and reorganization.  

By this point, President Biden will admit that there is a limit to what can be done, and that Treasury notes apparently can't be marketed now.....because consumers don't consider them to be trusted.

Trying to scare people?  No....just reviewing 1929 history, and things appear in some similar nature.