Three months ago, I would have put such an event into the 'never-will-happen' category. Today? 50-50 odds.
Basically, it'd require an event where a large crowd (say a political rally) would occur, and 500-odd Antifa folks show up, and some roughing-up of the non-Antifa folks occurs.
Some folks would retreat to their vehicles....pull rifles and pistols out, and a brief (hour-long) 'war' would occur.
The Antifa folks would show some weapons of their own, and the police would simply pull back to observe both groups.
In the end, you'd have around 300 people either dead or seriously wounded. The rally folks chasing the Antifa 'kids'? More than likely, and the police would attempt to protect them.....then receiving gunfire from the non-Antifa folks.
Media chatter would get out, and 10,000 locals would likely arm up, and go looking for Antifa 'escaping' out of the area....stopping them in cars, and shooting anyone who went defensive in nature.
In a matter of twelve hours, this situation would cross the nation, and suddenly get various groups armed and on patrol.
The police? They are built to handle law-respecting situations, and likely won't volunteer to take mayor or governor orders to halt the conflict.
In a matter of ten days, with truckers refusing to deliver food or gas....the nation would be in some massive doom-or-die scenario. Roadblocks would be established and people would be told to respect state borders (don't enter), and chaos would reign.
This is a ridiculous scenario, but things have unfolded in the past month where disrespect and lack of leadership on dozens of levels....have made it a possibility.
Shutdown of universities? That would also be part of this whole episode.
It's crazy, but a lot of things have occurred to make civil war now a potential item of discussion.
3 comments:
Been a reader since you posted this item and had to agree at the time. Given current events of these days, what kind of odds would you give now?
I think the thought today would be....could you be in the midst of civil conflict and just avoid the physical side of this...just continually being six-feet away from war itself?
Obvious issues that cannot be agreed upon: (1) forty-odd states gifting four states in serious debt issues, (2) college loan debt relief to idiot graduates who can't seem to grasp the degree ever paying back the $80k in debt, (3) figuring some gun control that has a fake corrective-action smell to you but doing more or less nothing in the end, (4) resolving Covid issues like a transmission job, and (5) redistributing wealth that seems to trigger unemployment issues but the PhD guy can't explain this with a straight face.
Add to this....no one in Europe wants Biden to do his BIG tour here in Jan/Feb/Mar because of Covid. No one wants Biden to tour unfriendly areas of the US. The news media seems to be presenting operations mostly run by 5th grade kids. People seeming to continue exiting NYC, SF, and LA, even when Covid lessens in the early summer. Toss in the NFL, NBA and MLB folks now holding franchises of questionable value.
Something is going on....it's got drama to the max, but it's not full-scale war.
Just for reference, I wrote an entire essay on 18 Jan 2021 to explain this theory I have in length. Civil conflict/war will not advance any longer.
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