The Seven Things That Trump Didn't Grasp

 1.  The pee-dossier, the Russia-Russia-Russia allegations, the Mueller investigation, and behavior of the Justice Department wasted the entire first two years of the administration.  All of these can now be regarded as juvenile in nature, and won't be discussed by the news media in any fashion.

2.  Sessions was a 1-star ineffective executive as Attorney General with a political stance mostly against Trump.  As much negativity that you can lay out on 'Rex' (the dismal choice for Secretary of State) and Mathis (who could not grasp a Pentagon existing in a non-war period), Sessions still beat out both gentlemen.  

3.  For every single Republican that was pro-Trump, there was another Republican who was anti-Trump.  In the Senate, this was more than obvious.  At least fifteen Republican Senators were not capable of supporting the party or the administration. 

4.  Without the TTIP deal with the EU, there is NO trade agreement existing.  So four years was wasted in putting up tariffs to influence a trade deal, with the retaliation of the EU always the next step.  Virtually every single country in the EU will tell you that some type of TTIP deal must occur, but they have no idea how to make it happen.  Trump's push to have no barriers on trade?  It went nowhere but straight to retaliation.  

5.  The CIA and FBI were weaponized at least six months before Trump even arrived in DC.  Trump would have had to dismiss a hundred top managers on day one to make some impact.

6.  For each four-star individual brought into the Trump camp over four years.....there was a one-star pick.  Some were recommended by insiders who wanted the Trump group to fail.  Trump probably figured this out around the end of the third year.  

7. The Chinese pulled every single card out to play in this election.  Even when the CIA noticed this....they mostly just kept quiet....like they were expecting it to happen.  

There Was This Gun Rally

 So to lay out this unusual rally that took place in Richmond, Virginia yesterday....I must start with the obvious goal....it was a pro-gun rally.  

Among the principal players?

1.  Fred Hampton Gun Club, which is basically a gun-rights club, named after Fred Hampton, of Chicago....who died in 1969.  Connected to the Black Panthers....he was a highly recognized member of the group.  If you were trying to figure the political slant....it's Chicago-style 'left'.  

2.  The Boogaloos.  You'd mostly classify them as younger guys (mostly white) who are into revolution.  So to suggest they are right-wing?  Well...before you reach that agenda topic....it's correct to say they want the downfall of the US government (doesn't matter if it's liberal or conservative).

3.  The Black Panthers.  Mostly a black revolutionary group, with patterns of Marxism in the middle of their program.

4.  The Proud Boys.  This is a mixed group, who'd generally say they are mostly against Antifa type agendas.

So right off the bat....you will probably ask....are these all legit 'club' members from the four?  Well....you can't make that case that the couple hundred that showed up....were all of who they claim to be.

Yes, the Proud Boys might be actors only.  Yes, the Boogaloos might be actors only.  Yes, the Black Panthers might be actors only.  Yes, the Fred Hampton Gun Club might be actors only.

So this protest at the Richmond capital?  Legit, but pieces and parts of it might be fake?  As silly as it sounds, you can't be sure of anything.  Half of them might have been legit, and the other half just hired actors brought in.

If they were all legit?  Well...it'd scare the crap out of the FBI and Virginia Police if all four groups were legit, and actually working in coordination with each other.

That all four groups might be pursuing some agenda over the next four years?  Maybe....but they might be totally fake and simply staging this for some fake organization at the top, who is getting paid by some outside influence.  

In simple terms, you can't be sure of anything. 

My Migrant Caravan Theory

 Over the past week, this caravan group has started up from Honduras.  Numbers?  News groups suggest 9k to 10k presently.  Destination?  Generally....they are headed to the Guatemalan border, and then onto the Mexico-Texas border.  They have the understanding that President Biden will open up the border and just take them in....period.  

My general belief?  This is probably wave #1, and once they reach the border....wave #2 will start by early March, with wave #3 and wave #4 probably occurring by May and June.  

Efforts by the Mexicans to stop it....like they did three years ago?  That was entirely based on a unspecified 'deal' that Trump had with Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto.  

Presently, with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador....and Trump gone....there's no deal.

So in about two weeks, with this caravan progressing on through Mexico to the closest border point (southern tip of Texas), there's a 2,400 km walk involved.  The news folks will be asking how President Biden intends to handle this.

This is what I suggest will unfold.  

By early next week, a State Department chief (probably the #3 guy/gal) will attempt to talk to the Mexican State Department and get some understanding that they need to slow down or halt the caravan.  The Mexican guy will ask....why are you talking to me?  This ought to be a President-to-President conversation.

A couple of days will pass and the new Secretary of State will make the phone call, to the Mexican Secretary of State.....same response....why isn't President Biden talking? 

VP Harris will attempt to conduct this conversation....again, failure.

By this point, the Texas Governor has gotten into the mess, and ordered National Guardsmen from the state to form a border protection plan.  He'll be told by the Pentagon and State Department that he can't do this.  He'll respond that Texas protects Texans.

So finally, around the first week of February, with the caravan only 300 miles from the border....the White House prepares President Biden for this 30-minute chat with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.  They have a board in front of President Biden, with the four talking points, and the first line of the conversation totally laid out.  All of this will be done by phone.

The conversation starts off with 'howdy', and some well wishes for Mexico.  

The Mexican guy responds and asks why they can't VTC this...instead of a phone-call.  He notes to Biden that his staff spent $300k on a fantastic VTC system, and it's state of the art....direct from Hong Kong.

President Biden starts to get side-tracked, and starts to address Obrador by 'Andy' (Americanized form for Andres).  Obrador is a bit frustrated by this.....he remembers this from the high school days and hates the Americanized name 'Andy'.

Biden hints that this caravan needs to be halted....real quick.

Obrador asks.....what's the deal?

'Deal' responds Biden....we don't freaking deal.  We aren't like those Trump idiots.

'Consequences' will be the response from Obrador.

So Obrador lays out the deal....he wants the old NAFTA agreement put back into effect.  He wants $100-million a month for the drug war in Mexico, for a minimum of one year.  He wants 700,000 tons of coal....free of charge.  He wants a MLB baseball team to be moved into Mexico City by 2023.  

Biden, runs onto a short fuse and starts uttering five or six things which can't be repeated.  His frustration level has hit maximum, and the seven guys standing around him are holding their hands up.....'stop' is whispered over and over.

Biden eventually slams the phone down, and the team stands there in shock.  Nothing can be worked out now.

A couple of days later, the caravan reaches the border and Texas National Guardsmen start to round them up.  Federal customs people try to intercede.  Another national crisis starts up.  The rounded-up caravan members.....near 10k....are grabbed by federal officials.  

A plan will be cranked-up.....forty refugee camps will be built by FEMA around mostly red states.  Several states pass legislation that no such camps can exist in their state.  The Supreme Court?  It refuses to hear any of the challenges.  National Guardsmen from these states are now ordered to dismantle the FEMA camps.  

Mexican President Obrador?  He grins for the cameras and tells his entire story.  He more or less pushed back on the great American 'beast' and won.  He is regarded as a 'hero' to the Mexican people.  

As for the staff around Biden?  By the end of March, they now realize that he can't be controlled or depended upon.  Talk starts up by April that the 25th Amendment business to remove a President might actually start by mid-summer, as the 4th wave of caravan migrants hits the border.  

Conspiracy Theories: Jews Poisoning Wells

Part of my series on conspiracy theories.  

If you go back to the middle ages period.....there's this episode that occurs around the Black Plague era, where Jews are suddenly accused of poisoning wells in central Europe.

Proof?  Zero.  Oh, you had wells where the water was contaminated, and no one argues that point.  But to suggest it was one particular group or Jewish related?  None.

This conspiracy accusation triggered various Jews to be 'grabbed', and in some cases....executed....based strictly upon rumors going out of control.

A similar type accusation started up in USSR in the 1950s....where Jewish doctors were dumped upon with wild accusations.  A couple hundred of them were actually detained, and some history suggestions go to the idea that several were executed based (again) on wild rumors with no proof.  

Conspiracy Theories: 2010 Deep Water Horizon

 Part of my group of ten conspiracy theories.

When you line up the incident in 2010....I would suggest that a minimum of 25 conspiracy theories exist.  One suggests that maybe the North Koreans helped to sabotage the rig (no proof).  Another suggest that Russians were sabotaging the rig (no proof).

Conspiracy theories with the settlement action and the judge's award?  That goes off into several directions and conspiracy theories exist on that level.

Most who've watched the episode from day one....generally believe it was an accident caused by poor regard for safety.  Beyond that....the skeptical level is pumping big-time.  

Hidden in the shadows....the North Koreans have to be wondering since they weren't involved in this event.....well, could they go and sabotage a dozen rigs and actually trigger some similar event?  

Where Fear Leads You

 The Biden team stood up at the end of last week, and said they are now fearful of 'insider' action by the 25,000 National Guardsmen in DC.  

The FBI said 'fine', and agreed to vet all 25,000 in a week (finished by the early hours of Wednesday).  

The meaning of vetting?  It's a background check.  Typically (I'm suggesting what it means to get a secret security clearance)....you put the guy's name into a database and review their financial status (if they've declared bankruptcy), had dealings with the law (a criminal record), or made threats that got into public records.

So when the Biden team said 'fearful' and the FBI said 'vetting'.....they don't really equal.

If we went to the Biden interpretation, to get 25,000 Guardsmen done.....you'd require a minimum 2,000 FBI agents, with personal interviews of each Guardsmen, and their willing nature to participate and volunteer information.  Having met these guys in the past, I'd suggest that once they grasp what you are doing....at least one out of three aren't going to be helpful.  

I can imagine the interview, and the FBI guy drilling down into a guy who has had about fourteen hours of real sleep over the six days.  Questions about their Facebook or Twitter accounts....gets a response of 'I got such-and-such medal of bravery for my year in Afghanistan'.  

A 'joke'?   Well...I would imagine that every single member of the military force, to include active duty as well....will be forced through a new vetting in 2021, and there might be well over 50,000 called into a room and told that their services might not be needed anymore.  All of this will spiral, and tens of thousands of teens who'd normally be recruited for service....will laugh over the option, and walk away from the recruiter.

But the willing participant in this whole wild game?  The FBI?  It simply demonstrates that they just 'door-guards' in fine clothing/suits.  That's one step above the Capital Police, who lack the fine clothing/suits.  

What might come out of the vetting, which just leads to more questions?  Out of the 25,000....you might find that 16,000 of them were on Tinder, and having active affairs, which their husband/wife wasn't aware of.  

The 'Skipped--Step' Theory

 Several months ago, I wrote of the evolving view that civil conflict/civil war was no longer impossible.  After much thought, I will lay out what I call the 'skipped-step' theory and how it relates to the mess today.

As a kid, I was amused by the introduction one day of this mythical 'clock', which related in some way to suggest that nuclear war was minutes away.  The news guy would explain this update, and how the nuclear clock had moved forward and was now only 30 seconds away from midnight.  Every year.....some group would step up and give the new adjustment.

Somewhere in the mid-80s, I can remember this topic coming up and finally some journalist had laid out that this was mostly a fictional clock, and it depended on the guys in the room and they perceived things.  In simple terms....it was a fake clock.  I just hadn't grasp that until that particular moment.

Looking at the way things work today....there is a new clock and it relates to civil conflict.  Twenty years ago, I would have set the clock at 00:01....meaning we were 23 hours and 59 minutes away from civil conflict.  

Viewing today's events and particular things from the past five years....I'd probably set the clock now at 22:45....meaning we are just 1 hour and 15 minutes away from civil conflict. 

But we now have something that I'd call a 'skipped-step' and the clock can never advance any further. 

Yes, we are in differing view.  Yes, we have civil behavior that is unacceptable.  Yes, political situations are now toxic.  Yes, most all squares are filled to indicate two groups can't live together.  But the 'skipped-step' comes into play.

Sedition, succession, second amendment chatter, etc.....are now all part of the 'skipped-step'.

In the coming weeks....the term 'domestic terrorism' will be uttered a lot by Republicans and Democrats....executive orders will be issued by President Biden, and the civil conflict will be avoided.

You will wake up to find that buying a new pistol is nearly impossible because someone put your name on a potential list for domestic terrorism.  

You'd like to have your name removed.  You find that lawyers are now very difficult to hire on this process because the threat of them being disbarred is now a weekly issue that pops up.

You go on a trip and stop at a airport bar to chat with some stranger for the four hour wait.  Some federal cop stops you later in the airport....to do a one-hour screening of a potential threat discussion.  He lets you go.  But you find now that the airline that you had the reservation with....because of info he put in the system.....won't allow the reservation to occur.  In simple terms, you don't fly with them.  Maybe it's enough on the blacklist that you can't fly with any airline, and end up riding a bus back home.

You go on a trip via car and stay at a hotel in a hotel in Dayton.  You sip a beer at a bar and discuss your frustration with someone who is equally frustrated politically....talking about succession.  An hour after the talk (near midnight), a federal cop arrives at your hotel door, and is acting on some 'tip'.  A 30-minute interview occurs.  He's OK with your explanation, and leaves.  Twenty minutes later....the hotel manager arrives and says you have to go.  Yes, at 1:30 AM....you've just been tossed out and black-listed. 

You now find that your views on Facebook and Twitter are being used for a federal database.  Maybe you aren't a true domestic terrorist, but it's bad enough to suggest that you might be a third-level (marginal threat) character.  This affects your gun-ownership, your acceptance into some federal/state job, or your application for a passport.

At some point....national parks will have a banned-list.  

All of this....done in a matter of a year or two, and no real political solution because no one will talk about this.

Your reaction?  You question everyone around you because they might turn you in.  You avoid social media entirely.  You lost respect for professional sports because they've been converted into this whole mess.  You lost your respect for law enforcement.  You don't respect your local prosecutor or the judges in your state.

Your soon-to-be ex-husband or soon-to-be ex-wife uses such fake info....to convey a threat that they might call the federal task force.  So you have to cooperate with them in a way that you would not have done a year prior.

The list goes on and on....we missed the step that would have taken us to civil war or civil conflict....only by suggesting you might be a domestic terrorist and this label gets you on hundreds of banned lists.  

Going off to a third-party to dump the Republicans?  Fine....but without one-hundred percent of Republicans dumping the party.....this new creation party will never threaten the system.  Most all Senators and House members will figure out this game.  No one can do much of anything....because of the threat of labeling themselves as domestic terrorists.  

The civil conflict clock I described?  Yep, it's stuck at 22:45 and will not advance another step.  

A  year from now, you will meet me in a bar, and quietly note that you have six neighbors or friends who are on banned lists of some type.  You might even admit your son/daughter got on a university potential list of being banned if they conduct themselves in any suggestive way.  Your wife had some chat in a beauty saloon that earned a 10 PM visit by a federal agent one night....so she can't legally own a gun because of comments she said (while you still have the right).

You'll ask me how we got this way, and it basically leads through a world that is a fraudulent construction, and a Constitution that seems to have been beaten badly.  Maybe you feel like it's Nazi Germany in 1933....but you won't suggest that in our little talk at the bar.  It's a careful discussion, because other folks at the bar might turn us in.  So we converse in light-hearted chatter about Chicago Bears, snow coming early this year, and frustration over illusions that seem to now to exist.

Society?  It's now locked into this Twilight-Zone-like situation.  We can't agree on mass immigration, taxes, resolving police issues, or dumping incompetent politicians.  But we can't talk about this without getting deeper into a mess.

Yeah, it's a moment that you need five shots of some strong whiskey because we are pretty screwed now.  In some way, maybe it's just fantastic that we avoided civil conflict or civil war.  That's where you pour the second round of five shots.  It'll dull your pain.