Thursday, 28 April 2022

Humble Advice

 Just some humble advice....if you play around with conspiracy theories, and one day....things shift a bit, and that conspiracy theory is now 100-percent true (nothing fake or delusional)....then it's NOT a theory any longer.  

You also can't refer to it as misinformation.  

Wednesday, 27 April 2022

Five Observations From Yesterday On Twitter

 1.  From commentary of some employees....you get the feeling that they felt their company was Jesus, Incorporated.....and they were now going to work for Satan, Incorporated.   Made me almost think they were in a cult-like mentality.

2.  Some MSNBC analyst made the comment that 'sociopath' Musk was going to wreck the world with censorship.  I would admit that Twitter (before Elon) did a pretty fair job on censorship....I'm not sure if he can out-do the current crew on censorship.

3.  As much as Trump is deemed 'evil' and the greatest threat facing mankind....it seems that Elon has passed Trump....if you view social media commentary and CNN/MSNBC.  

4.  This chief lawyer for Twitter, Vijya Gadde, had some kind of internal staff meeting (virtual/zoom, I believe) and got highly emotional.....breaking down.  Her chief concern?  Well....things were going to CHANGE.  You just get the impression that she would not be able to function under Musk.

5.  You just get an overwhelming impression that various folks in the company will go and do a remarkable bit to destroy the company before Musk completes the deal.  It's the attitude 'if-we-can't-have-it-nobody-can' behavior that you'd see with 12-year old kids.  Maybe this was a Musk exercise to get them to accomplish this before the deal is concluded, and he'll just walk away with zero ownership, and Twitter just plain 'crapped-out'.  For those employees who held tens of thousands of shares?  Well....total destruction would leave them with nothing much of value. 

Tuesday, 26 April 2022

What If Plan 'A' Was Something Else Entirely Different?

 I worked with a guy in the 1990s who went and bought a 2-year old vehicle.  In the purchase agreement.....it was written that he (the new owner) could return the vehicle within ten days and get all his money back (NO LOSS).  No reason had to be given.  On the 9th day....my associate did return the vehicle, and got every penny back.

I sat there today looking at the Twitter-Elon deal, and all this chatter by Twitter employees....that they might damage/screw-up/harm Twitter before the deal is wrapped....to harm Elon.

My humble belief is that Elon probably wrote a two-line statement into the purchase deal....kinda like my co-worker in  the 1990s.....if they really tarnished or screwed up the App/program.....the deal would be off.

The odds of this happening?  I'm of the mind....better than a 50-percent chance.

If this were to occur?  Public trust of Twitter would dissolve in a matter of days, and probably half the users would walk out the back-door....never to return.  Viability or surviving this?  It won't happen.

So in their effort to destroy Elon, in some weird way....they'd destroy the company and never bring a bit of harm to Musk.

The end?  Well....no, then Elon would come to the board in twelve months and instead of 43-billion dollars....he could offer 3-billion for a broken-down crappy company that the employees destroyed themselves.  

In some weird way....this might be plan 'A' and Elon knew this would be the best way to defeat the 'poison-pill' idea.  

Mad Max

 Around 40 years ago, I sat at a theater and watched the 1979 version of Mad Max.....which I kinda enjoyed.  

The script?  Mostly about some revenge stuff....death here and there...in the midst of a oil-crisis and a breakdown in society.  If you asked me who wrote the script....I would have said some 16-year old kids....mostly tanked-up on beer.  I've probably watched once or twice since then.

Last night, the 2015 Mad Max version came on (Fury Road).....which I'd never watched.

If you asked me the theme?

I'd say mostly meth-head guys, on some crazed fit in the desert (maybe Australia), and a whole lot of minute-by-minute destruction going on.  

The skinhead guys?  If you crossed Bath Salts, meth and cocaine....giving out a fair amount to folks....that was mostly the storyline.  Who wrote the script?  I'd be guessing mostly sixth-grade kids.  Nothing made sense.

I lasted for about 40 minutes and then just gave up.  

Monday, 25 April 2022

Twitter People Hyped To 'Leave'?

 I read a piece today....some folks analyzing Twitter employee commentaries....that if this Elon Musk deal occurs....they will rush to pack their bags,  leave the company, and America (suggesting they'd move to 'safe' Canada).

I paused over this for ten minutes.

Personally, with the exception of Vancouver.....in about 90-percent of Canada....after one single winter....most wussy Americans would pack quickly and return to America.

People who get this hyped-up and always make this 'I'm-gonna-leave' statement....always say something like this but haven't done any real planning.  

Personally.....I'd say fine and let me help you in any way possible.  But I think 90-percent of folks would give up about six weeks into a real winter, and beg to return. 

Five Things

 1.  There's a bit of hype building up (going several years now) about Starbucks and unionization.  Some folks think the union thing will happen shortly for Starbucks.....I'm less likely to believe that.

One obvious thing....the average cost of a Starbucks non-description coffee is around $2.75.  If you go union.....that will likely rise to $3.20 minimum.  

I'd just ask the question.....just how many regular people would be willing to pay for something like that?

2.  I read a survey (AP/NORC) that suggested that 49-percent of Democrats think that Joe Biden is leading the nation in the wrong direction. Course, on Republicans....it was near 93-percent.

If this were any normal President....he'd be worried over the numbers and asking what can we do?  But he doesn't seem that worried....neither are his 'helpers'.  

Something about this.....doesn't make any sense.  It's like having four low-air tires on your car, and people pointing to them while driving.....yet just grinning as they pass you.

3.  If I were a ethnic-Russian-Ukrainian....having lived forty years of my life in eastern Ukraine....seeing the massive amount of damage, and having some Russian conscript guys arrive for some military parade and them expecting me to appreciate their damage done.....I'd be shaking my head, and probably looking to move elsewhere.   There's just no future.

4.  I think about 10-percent of Americans now suffer from Covid-anxiety, and I doubt that they will recover from this....for the remainder of their lives (big deal if they are approaching 20 years old now).  I'll add....if you were single prior to the Covid era....now having Covid-anxiety....it's going to be hard to find someone who shares your anxiety feeling.  

5.  Twitter deal?  Elon will own the company within 30 days.....it's a sure bet now.  For the Twitter universe.....there's about to be 'snap' by Elon-Thanos, and folks are mostly cheering him on.  For some Twitter employees, it's the end of the universe.  

Here's the thing....if he's right....Twitter will correct itself (probably in one year), and will be a profitable company.  Then the question is.....what's left to change?  Meta-Facebook?  Microsoft?  Google?  

As healthy as he looks....he's got twenty-plus years to reshape the universe.  

Sunday, 24 April 2022

My Prediction Over Disney

 Presently, the DIS stock situation is around $118 per share (down from a year ago when it was at $186....meaning a loss of about 36-percent in one-year).  

They were hurt to a great extent by Covid, marginal tourism for two years, and movies hitting the theaters with no audience return because of the virus.

So, my general prediction:

1.  Toward the last two months of 2022....I think the stock will fall to around $82 (losing another 30-percent).

2.  Of the ten board members....by the close of 2022....at least four of them will have resigned.  

3.  A hostile take-over chat will start by early 2023 (before the next stock-holder meeting), with the stock probably around the high $40s at that point.  Several IRA/mutual funds will have dumped their holdings because of the continuing downward trend.  This will speed-up the decline of value for the stock.  Some analysts will remark that somewhere around the 2010 era, when the stock was valued at $40....that was probably where it should have lingered and they are way-overvalued.  

4.  The take-over?  I think it'll be a partnership involving Sony and at least three travel companies.

5.  Disney will then be bought (forced to the table) and carved up.  The cruise business, hotels, and theme parks will be all controlled by the travel companies.  Sony will end up with the studio and streaming video service.  

6.  People will notice in the first week of new ownership....of the top one-hundred executives with Disney....less than five will remain (the rest are let go).

7.  Somewhere in this distribution business....the state of Florida will be offered one or two of the business fronts, for a sum of ten-billion....to help finance the whole deal.  They will turn the deal down.  

8.  Over the course of 2023/2024....at least twenty different books will be written about the 'fall' of Disney and how they designed their failure.  

9.  Some country-and-western singer will write a tune about 'Walt' weeping off in a bar.....someone done him wrong kind of tune, and they-took-his-woman sorrow theme.  

10.  The Marvel and Star Wars 'stuff'?  It will be carved off and sold to Warner Brothers....to help finance the takeover.