Food For Thought: Having A Second Election And How It Works

 This week in Germany, the Constitutional Court (their Supreme Court) reviewed a problem and agreed....for the city of Berlin, the 2021 'state' election (remember, of the sixteen German states.....3 are actual cities....not full-up states)....was crapped-up and most be held again.

So to lay this out, both a national election and a Berlin 'state' election were held in September 2021.  From the 300-odd polling stations...the vast majority had problems. 

They ranged from a shortage of ballots at stations....to logistics efforts throughout the day (held on a Sunday, with a city-wide marathon in the mix for that day).  A number of sites just shut down because they weren't able to function by the plan.  

What triggered a lot of this chaos?  Well....back in early 2021, the Covid vaccine came out, and priorities were established for a guy/gal to get vaxed-up.  Most people in Germany, under the age of fifty, weren't going to get the shot until mid-to-late summer.  However, they made a waiver up....if you volunteered to a poll-helper....you got top priority.

You can imagine this situation....bunch of folks figure out how to progress to the front of the line.  So when August came for training (for poll helpers)....a fair number of these folks sent their regrets and declined to carry out their function.

What happened in 2022?  A complete review suggested that a percentage....maybe 10-percent....maybe 20-percent of voters....were not given a chance to vote. I'm more inclined to think it was around 10-percent.

Eventually, it was taken to court, and they agreed.

So the entire September 2021 election...will be held a second time...in mid-February 2023, for Berlin. 

The odds that it could turn out radically different?  I'd give it better than a 50-percent chance.  I'll even go and suggest that only 70-percent of the people who did show up in September 2021....will come to vote this time.  This hurting the SPD and Green parties?  Yes, without any doubt.

The same issues brewing now that were brewing in September 2021?  Well....no.  There's a major refugee problem in the city presently....which wasn't there in 2021.  You can also add a major recession issue brewing.  

How Voting Stacks Up

 2020 total Presidential votes: 158.5-million

2016 total Presidential votes: 136.6-million

2012 total Presidential votes: 129.1-million

2008 total Presidential votes: 131.3-million

2004 total Presidential votes: 120.0-million

2000 total Presidential votes:105.4-million

1996 total Presidential votes: 96.3-million

1992 total Presidential votes: 104.0-million

1988 total Presidential votes: 91.6-million

1984 total Presidential votes: 92.6-million

1980 total Presidential votes: 86.5-million

So three obvious points that you notice....

1.  About every ten years, there's a ten-million voter jump.

2.  2020 is an odd jump, because it bumped up 22-million in four years.

3.  Most of all voting patterns now....are urbanized.  Rural sectors haven't grown....but city patterns have more than doubled over the past forty-odd years.  

Ten Thoughts

 1.  There are probably sixteen additional rights I have today in 2022....that I didn't have in 1992.  Making me a more 'free' person?  I just kinda doubt it.

2.  I saw a statistic yesterday....around 76-million Americans are believed to be on psychiatric drugs (Xanax, Lexapro, etc).  On any given day....you probably bump into at least twelve people who are on some pill-theme.  Maybe they are feeling angry....maybe they feel happy....just your luck.

3.  A lot of the talk you see over Trump in the last twenty-four hours....reminds me of these fantasy movies involving dragons, and how folks were severely upset and worried about the evil dragon business.

4.  At present pace, via CNN, Fox, and MSNBC.....by mid-summer 2023, I expect at least twenty-five newly created conspiracy theories per day.  

5.  The FBI admits eight 'insiders' were at the 6 Jan 2021 protest in DC.  Beyond that....they aren't saying much.  Could they have prevented the chaos, and saved America?  Well....the FBI can't really talk about that angle.

6.  Do Democrats have anything to worry about in 2024?  No.

Lets be honest, if you can find 81-million votes (for Biden in 2020).....then Trump loses, end of the story.  

Now, if you bring up that the combined vote in 2020....had around 35-percent votes any election of the past forty years?  Well....yeah, that's a fact.  

What you need to worry about is if those stupid Republicans figure out all the drop-box gimmicks and suddenly find another fifteen-odd million votes out there that didn't exist before.

7.  People (particularly women) who have melt-downs on TV and to a vast audience....aren't really demonstrating maturity or any kind of courage.

8.  Gun-free zones are only effective, if people respect law.  Beyond that....it's just fake reality.

9.  I actually admired the Chinese guy who ran a marathon....while chain-smoking the whole way through it.  Fifty years old, and in great shape.

10.  If you haven't seen 'Ancient Apocalypse' on Netflix...I strongly recommend a review.  Begs a lot of questions.  

This FTX Guy

 Sam Bankman-Fried, creator of this FTX cryptocurrency (that has failed) is a unique character. 

This week, I went looking for podcasts and video of the guy talking, then something popped out after seven viewings.....his attire.  

So I went looking for images of the guy.  You can google up his name, and look for images alone.  

Roughly 95-percent of the pictures taken of him....reflect some college attire situation.  No dress shirt, no tie, no jacket.

If you were walking into a bank for a quarter-million loan situation to buy a bar, cafe, or business operation....you'd at least wear a button-down white shirt with a tie.

If you were walking into a bank to ask for 12-million dollars for a hotel purchase, or some big NY City nightclub situation....you'd dress up for the occasion to give an impression.

This Sam Bankman-Fried guy?  I get the impression that he might only have one single suit, and he's mostly an anti-white-shirt, and anti-tie guy.

As he's dragged back to the US to face court hearings?  It'll be interesting how he dresses....to face a judge.  

Pictures Story

 Someone put these two pictures up.....in a meeting of crisis players...Trump-era, Biden-era.

In the Trump case, they were all focused on him and knew that he had decisions in his mind.  He wasn't really there to hear their logic or to listen to their woes.

Trump had this down to a business routine.  There's gains, and there's losses.  He wasn't really a political figure.

In the second picture, you get the impression that there is no central figure.  Biden is in the room, but he's just one of them.  Adding to the discussion.....Biden isn't that focused, or alert.  He might drift into the problem, and then drift out of the problem.

Why take these pictures?  That's my take on this....maybe they think that pictures convey some public support of their greatness or purpose in life.

To be honest, I hate these G20 or G7 meetings....because it's a scripted event.  

Senator Elections in 2024 That Might Flip?

 1.  Arizona, with Sinema (D).  Democrats might run a serious primary against her. She marginally won in 2018.  

2.  California, with Feinstein (D).  I seriously expect her to retire prior to that election, and the Governor likely to name either himself, or London Breed (SF's mayor) to fill, and then run in 2024.

3.  Florida, with Rick Scott (R).  He needs some help, but big question....who can the Democrats drag up to run against him.

4.  Indiana.  Republican marginally won the last election.  

5.  Michigan's Stabenow (D).  Will be a tough race, and various people being discussed. She won with 52-percent in last election.  

6.  Missouri's Hawley (R).....marginally won with 51-percent in last election.  

7.  Montana's Jon Tester (D).....marginally won the last election.  He hasn't said intent yet.  Likely to be a new D coming out to the primary.

8.  Texas. Ted Cruz (R) marginally won his last election (51-percent).  I am expecting Beto coming to run for the seat again.

9. Vermont.  Bernie Sanders.  I think he will retire at the end of 2024.  New face appearing.

10.  West Virginia's Manchin (D).  I think he will stand down, and very likely for a Republican to win this race.

Observations?

 1.  Trump running?  Well....he stood and talked about three things (mandating a ID for all election matters, same-day voting, and paper ballots).  

Here's the thing....if you went to a group of independent and Republican voters....all three would be regarded as a 'must-happen' thing.  I suspect even around working-class Democrats....they'd agree on the voter ID mandate.  

Again (just like in 2016), he picks topics that attract the bulk of voters.  

2.  General belief on this missile that landed in Poland (killing two farm workers)?  I think the Ukrainians fired it....to halt incoming cruise missiles.  

3.  It just seems how hard it is to get Covid-treatment drug Ivermectin.....but then you can ask for chemical castration drugs for your gender flip.....with hundreds of doctors ready and willing to give you the castration drugs....even if you were twelve years old.

4.  If you were working for big-tech at the beginning of 2022.....you probably are evaluating your resume at present, and finding future moves to be fairly limited.

5.  As FTX (the crypto guys) prepare bankruptcy paperwork.....it has to list every single account and how much each had.  A lot of people probably don't want that information to be shared out.

6.  The CNN stress?  With Trump announced.....the question is....do you go back to the normal formula of 2016 to 2020, and be the anti-Trump network?  With the lowest viewer numbers of the past decade....it's hard to imagine them flipping back to the old ways.

7.  Hollywood on fire about Trump?  Well.....yeah.  But it just begs questions....if you get yourself all 'flamed-up' over this and infuriate roughly half of potential audiences....what's your job potential from that point on?