Political Chatter

 Some chatter yesterday that Trump has decided several states are now in play, and he intends to push on advertising in those states.

The list?  New York, New Jersey, Virginia, New Mexico, and Minnesota.

So I pondered over this. 

Can one use the 2020 numbers for legit analysis?  No.  Those numbers are likely to never repeat again....even if it's Newsome instead of Biden.

So I'd use the 2016 numbers.

New York in 2016?  Trump lost by 1.5-million votes.  Well....lot of negativity around NY City over the migration business presently.  If you went around the whole state....I suspect that around 1-million votes have shifted a bit, and Trump might be able to sell a 'fix-migration-agenda'.  

New Jersey in 2016?  Trump lost there by 550,000 votes roughly (out of 3.8-million votes cast roughly).  Again, the migration business will be a top subject and he might be able persuade several hundred thousand folks to shift votes.

Virginia in 2016? It was a 220,000 vote difference roughly.  Presently, Trump is scaring the work-in-DC crowd about federal employee cuts....so I seriously doubt  he can find anyone being pro-Trump.

New Mexico in 2016? Roughly a 65,000 vote difference.  The fact that almost half of the population of the state identify as Hispanic?  If he could shift 40,000 votes over...he'd win the state.

In Illinois?  It ought to be a safe state for Biden/Newsom....but I think  roughly 500,000 voters in the Chicago area would be willing to shift votes and admit that the migration crisis is harming the city.

2020 was a one-time glitch in the system where a lot of absentee ballots were in the system.  Without Covid?  It won't occur again.   

If A China Invasion Of Taiwan Took Place

 First, I don't see the naval power of China being capable enough to last more than two weeks, with probably half the 'fleet' sunk by that point.  I also think the quality of the ships and subs would be tested to a significant degree....proving build-effort was at the same level as these crappy apartment buildings throughout the country.

Second, with the combined power of Australia, Japan, and the US on the landscape....the threat would be finished by the 30th day.

Third, as for the trade-embargo likely to be put into force....China's economy would be fully destroyed at that point...giving rise to Vietnam, India and Malaysia being the giants of the region.

Fourth, as this 'war' ends....I expect a massive exodus of Chinese men and women....trying to find another land to live/work.

Fifth, Xi?  He'll be removed by some Chinese General, and the country will go into some serious chaos over the next year, with starvation and riots.

Sixth, Putin's only serious partnership gone?  Yeah, and that would trigger some commercial talk about the future of economics in Russia.  They needed someone with deep pockets to buy natural gas and oil....with China gone, the pockets are a problem.

Seventh....over five-million Chinese men/women entering the US within two years?  Yeah....all walking across the Mexico/US border.  If you think things are bad now....go imagine the Democratic Party trying to figure some 'game' to hook up with ex-Chinese folks.  

This is a scenario that you'd rather not see.  

Five Things

 1.  There's probably around a half-million Americans now....who wake up in a state of panic over Trump.  These people stay charged up throughout the morning, and afternoon over anti-Trump talk.  At night, they arrive home and try to generate talk with their husband, wife, parents, neighbors or kids...about the evilness of Trump.  Some are rich...some are working-class...some are religious in nature....some have destroyed friendships or family relations over this 'passion'.  

I can't think of a situation like this...in the past hundred years.

2.  This odd thing popped in my head over LGTBQ-people.  The minute you bring up the B-people (the Bi folks)....you are admitting that there are only two genders.  I would imagine at some point in 2024....the B-people will be brought in and given propaganda that they have to rename themselves to include the sixty-odd 'other' genders.  This might not be that acceptable, and some of the B-people might say they can't handle a relationship with the T-people.

3.  There's some national anti-obesity 'group' who has come to suggest that yearly measurements have to start up in schools (even in the first grade).  Some element of shame intended?  Yeah.

The problem?  When the extra-chunky teacher or gym-instructor steps up to conduct this measurement.....the kid is going to say something 'hurtful' about chunky Ms Jones, and there's going to some disrespect going back and forth.

4.  Both Senator Sanders and Senator Sinema (AZ)...have refused to say if they are running in 2024 (only two up who should say 'something' by this point).  I don't think either are intending to run.  In the case of Arizona, I don't think the Democrats have anyone of status to run.

5.  The word 'flee' gets brought up a lot over folks leaving California and New York.  Typically, if you asked anyone over the age of fifty, if they have ever had to flee away from somewhere....they will have a immigration situation, and were fleeing away from Vietnam, China, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, or El Salvador.  

Somehow, we have put California and New York into the North Korea status, without thinking much of the status. 

On The Topic Of A Visa

 I sat this week, pondering over how I got my German wife her 'green-card'.  I was stationed in Panama at the time...on my 2nd year of marriage and the base guy laid out the various pieces and parts to this.

Paperwork-wise, it wasn't a big deal (maybe 10 pages of crap to fill out).

Cost factor?  They wouldn't let the base clinic do the physical.  This meant you had to pay some civilian doctor to do it and they kept wanting to lead me to some clinic which would charge in the $1,500 range for 'requirements'.  

Some guy who'd done this the year prior for his Panamanian wife....gave me a name of a cheap-ass Panama clinic...costing in the $500 range.  With everything figured out...I probably spent in the $800 range out of my pocket.

So I look at the modern way of people just crossing the border.  They 'catch' you (it's not really catching as far as I can figure).  They will assemble you at some border station...giving you a $10 sandwich, with a soda. 

Texas will put you a free-bus, and 36 hours later...you end up in NY City.  There?  Those kind NY City dopey folks will put you up in some 3-star hotel, giving you a VISA-gift card....probably loaded in the $3k range to buy stuff.  Monthly, they'd hand you $2,000 for 'stuff'.  Any paperwork for the visa?  They'd fill it out for you, and that stupid clinic stuff would be totally free.

Yeah, today....I'd just tell the German wife to skip all those regular steps, and just hike up to the Texas border, and 'get-caught'.  

Looking Forward Toward The 2024 Election

 1.  I just have this sense that Biden and the entire DNC crew are pretty sure that he (or his replacement Governor Newsom) cannot mount another campaign to get 81-million votes.

Just an odd feeling but they seem to figure things will not work in the 2020-fashion.

2.  Selling Bidenomics?  

Someone on the Biden-team  needs to hire some 2nd grade teacher, with the mentality and talk of Mister Rogers-fame....to spend ten minutes nationally explaining it.  So far, every attempt that President Biden or any of his 20-odd experts on finance....has ended in dismal failure.  

3.  At some point, it will be dragged out that Lincoln was denied on 10 southern state ballots in 1860.  Then it'll be mentioned that they were all Democratic-run states.  And then this Trump denial business on the ballot will hurt the Biden/Newsom campaign.

4.  On five-star damage...the whole thing with Hunter Biden has gone to the level that it makes 'dad' (Joe) look like an idiot.

5  Dumping Harris from the VP ballot position seems to be a high priority but I don't think they've told her that.

6.  Governor DeSantis is finished, and will not be able to ever restart his efforts....even for Senator.  I also don't think Trump will offer a position.....if Trump does win the election.

7.  Dragging Civil War history into the race?  Well....I think folks are desperate enough (stupid enough as well), that it makes perfect sense.  The fact that Latino folks have no ownership of the period, or the outcome?  It puts the Democratic Party in a crappy position in terms of getting them hyped-up.

8.  CNN almost unwatchable at this point?  I tried this past week to get in 60 minutes, but the mute-finger went into action several times.  I eventually gave up.

9.  It's pretty much guaranteed these days....if you have President Biden in some free moment (say two minutes)....he's likely to say a minimum of two things that the White House has to walk back later.  

10.  On soap opera theatrics....there's going to be plenty of stuff in politics to make up for the crappy TV season on NBC, CBS, and ABC.  

That Chinese Balloon Business

 This week, a piece or two of the 2023 Chinese balloon business (over the US) came out.

What the Pentagon came to admit?  Well....it was designed in a pretty simple way to connect to some US internet carrier on the ground....doing a data dump (I assume photos/imagery)....on a continual basis (meaning no satellite was necessary).

I pondered over this. 

Basically, it'd be like me turning to some 16-year old geeky kid and saying I want some imagery of a country....desiring to spend very little.  The kid would suggest some cheap connection deal.  He'd go down the list with Spectrum, Cox, Century Link, Horizon, and Xfinity.  He'd explain how crappy connectivity is with Xfinity, or how limited Horizon is in certain regions.  Then we'd go and sign up with the right carrier.

The engineer who designed this?  I would imagine he's been to a US college and knows some various ways to cut corners....doing thing cheaply.

The fact that you could have 500 of these balloons ready to go?  I would imagine there's a warehouse somewhere and probably just five or six guys running this whole operation.

One Aspect Of The Civil War Never Explained

 The American Civil War started on 12 April 1861....what would normally be planting season over the next month for cotton in the south.  Planting went as scheduled, and harvest (picking) came up in September/October.  

However, with the war in full swing....there were two brewing issues.

First, the primary customer for the cotton harvest were the knitting mills in the NE of the US.  With the war going on....no cotton moved to the customers there.  

Second, with naval blockades in place and freezing out the bulk of Europe cotton sales....cotton sat in ports for the most part.

As you might imagine....this left crap for the cotton commerce market, and the banks holding loans of the southern businessmen.  

The New England knitting mills (running with mostly women and children as employees)....for the most part....shut-down for 1861.

By the end of 1861, both Egypt and India realized that they had a massive market now open, and planting season for 1862 went into over-drive.  

By the end of 1862, England was importing around 90-percent of their cotton needs from India.  As you look at France, Netherlands, Spain, Italy and Germany....their market came mostly from Egypt.  

US farms trying to plant for spring 1862?  Yes, but there's simply no real cash flow, and banks are crapped out by this point.  So there's probably some cotton to be picked in the fall of 1862, but no consumers to buy their product.

The south, by spring of 1863....is economically dead.  Even when the war ends....9 April 1865....it'll be most of a decade when some cotton production starts to occur, and the limited market is mostly to the New England market.  Overseas market, a major part of their business plan?  It's dead....won't be coming back.

States like South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas and Louisiana?  It will be several decades before their economies start to go into a recovery path.

So here's the fascinating thing....by the end of 1861....you can zero out all value of plantations and slaves.  Just in one single year, Egypt and India have taken over the world market.  The slavery business?  It was totally finished....whether the war continued past 1862 or not.  

Why we never discuss this story?  Economics and agriculture are a bitter pill for teachers and historians to deal with and explain to 'kids'.