Humble Thoughts

 1.  It kinda hit me yesterday....back in November....I voted for the felon-guy, the hillbilly-ex-Marine, the mad-scientist-turned-rocket-geek, and this kid named 'Big Balls'.  

It was a overwhelming feeling....like I'd assembled the Avengers to go off and save something.

2.  Amazing....paper straw mandate gone.  Plastic straws back in fashion.

3.  Crazy stuff out of NY City.  Apparently, with all the ICE business going on and illegals evaporating....suddenly, the 'rich'  have a problem....their marginally paid maids/nannies are gone.  I get the impression....the 'rich'  weren't really that rich to start with.

4. Some report came up.....over a interview with a US government employee....he had some 19-year-old DOGE guy engage him in a 15 minute interview....basically to “justify their existence.” After that....there was a fire/no-fire 'X' written down.

Personally, I think the story is BS.

However, if you are a US gov't employee, and you really don't have more than a 3 inch by 5 inch card of information about what you do....you probably don't have a real job.

5.  On taxable income and refunds for 2026?  At this point....whatever your tax bill is for spring of 2025....I would imagine Elon's crew will cut around 30-to-50 percent of governmental spending.  So if  your fed-tax bill was $7k....next year....you might want to expect this to be in the range of $3.5k to $4k.

But here's the thing....all this Elon magic going on...is aimed at the fed-level.

What if Trump sends the audit team to states/cities, and says....your fed-funding ends unless you agree to allow Elon's audit crew to view your cash flow?

Well....that $10k you pay for property tax,  state income tax, and crazy local fees?   That's likely to dissolve by 50-percent.

So, I'll predict....Elon's audit folks get deeper into the mess in 2026.  

Five Things I Kinda Noticed

 1.  If you were a business or farmer, and had a dozen illegals as your main manpower....for ten years, and never paying them legit wages, or covering state/federal taxes....you might not want to admit this in public, as to explaining why your operation is in failure mode.

2.  If you follow Chicago news....the backers/donor folks have kinda started to exit the Obama Presidential Center project.  

3.  This week....reading through the WaPo business section....I'm rather shocked to learn the economy is in a spiral, and appears awful fragile.  Just odd...four years of signals and never any questions, and now they'd like to lay out problems.

4.  Just odd....in Nevada this week....the state admitted more Republicans now registered to vote....than Democrats.  It's been over 20 years when that last occurred.

5.  Trump signed off on giving Israel the 'ultimate' bunker-buster bomb.  This is the type that you'd drop on a target that will bust a 20-ft concrete wall at 100 ft in the dirt.  Begs the question  what exactly they will be engaging.

This Trump-Chatter About Term-Limits

Trump said yesterday....he'd like to push for a term-limit situation.  It wasn't detailed and you have to  wonder what would be included.

Wondering how to deliver an amendment to the Constitution?  The system says that an amendment may be proposed either by the Congress....with a two-thirds majority vote in both the House of Representatives and the Senate,  or by a constitutional convention called for by two-thirds of the State legislatures. 

I should note here...by the second method....none of the 27 amendments to the Constitution have been proposed by constitutional convention.  It's highly unlikely.

What I see as the tactic?  All of 2026 will be consumed by Trump chatter....pushing for a massive GOP-win  in November 2026, and forcing out of any Republican who won't sign and pledge to the amendment.

The enticement?  I think he'll include the Supreme Court, and all of the federal judges in the situation as well.  For some Democrats....they probably would  be pleased.

How this might be worded?  Simple text.....12 total consecutive years as a House/Senate member.  You leave for a minimum of 4 years, and you could run again. 

For the Supreme Court....once in place....you are limited to ten years.  

I'm also of the mind....an age text inserted....to say you have to resign/retire by age 70....as a judge, House member, or Senator.  

Odds of passing?  Unknown....but it won't come up until January of 2027. 

Do I Believe Most Gov't Workers Taking Trump Buy-Out Will Retire?

 The number mentioned at this point (nationally) is 40,000.  Some people believe by the end (say mid-March)....it'll be near the 80k to 100k level.

So, I will suggest this....the bulk of them are in the age 50 or above....so they are mostly looking at the use of their TSP (gov't IRA) age use (55 or above), and they will market their house....going for some cheaper lifestyle. 

If they live California....they will up and leave.  If they live in the DC area.....the property will  be up for sale in March.  

The folks who are in their 30s to age 54?  Well....they will test the market, and I imagine that they will think there's jobs out there....still in their price-range.  Most, after 6 months....will grasp that this idea is crazy, and they will have to accept a 30-percent pay-cut.  Some FBI folks are probably finished....and will be looking at a teacher's job.

Some mental syndrome developing?  I would take a guess that 5-percent will be seeking some mental stress help by mid-summer.  

Time-Blindness?

I watched a piece off social media today...where a 20-something year old gal....noted that she was interviewing for a job, and had asked the HR-'Boss' if they understood that she had time-blindness.

What she meant?  Well....she didn't really obligate herself to a clock. If they expected her to be at the desk at 8 AM....her time-blindness might prevent that, and she might be there at 8:11 AM, or 8:30  AM, or possibly even 8:45 AM.

What she wanted....was compassion from the  'boss' (some understanding).

She didn't say what the reaction was.  It sounded like this job-interview didn't go well.

It sounded like she had a disability situation....or at least she wanted you to respect her time-blindness.

Punctually-impaired?  Yeah.

I don't have a problem with a person who is tardy once a month (say 15 to 20 minutes), and their story is reasonable. When it's a 3-time a week event, and the story is a simple 'I-woke-up-late' saga....it doesn't work.

As for the employment future of this gal?  Over the next forty years....I don't think she will move up much, or be considered for management positions. 

Three Observations

 1.  Yesterday, I watched the 54-minute CBS-interview of VP Harris (in the entirety). This is the one where 60-Minutes cut-and-pasted their way to limit crappy moments.

I'll just say....either she had three or four shots of something prior to this....or she has some mental disability.

So I'll just say it....when Joe Biden selected her....he had to know that she had 'problems', and this fell into his game plan.

2. ALL of the CIA's  work-force were offered exit deals.  Whether or not they all take it?  Unknown.  

3.  Somewhere in all this money-trail stuff going on....Elon's crew discovered that around $8-million was spent on research....to determine the effect of flavored cigarettes on bisexuals and lesbians.  

Yeah, it must be important....but I've yet to figure why.

Finance Chatter

 Good  financial report by Ric Bender.....talking about reality (finally) in the job market (crap, and probably was crap for a year or two).  Worth watching (9-min).  One obvious thing....if you were a gov't employee...hoping to leave and find new non-gov't work...2025 is not your year.