Officially, on paper, yes.
Officially, ten have now withdrawn. We might as well admit that from the 17 listed...at least twelve of them ought to go ahead pull out at this point.
So, there's really only five with any odds? More or less....true. Warren, Sanders, Biden, Mayor Pete, and Yang. I know....most folks aren't giving Yang much of a chance, but if you look at college students....he's generally mentioned by them.
If you pulled out the Obama-hyped-up-intensity measure scale....do any of these folks pull a '9' or '10'? No. That's a curious thing about the remaining group. But we can admit that Hillary probably never pulled more than a '7' on the Obama-scale either.
Who might get blacks to come out and vote? It's limited (I would suggest) to strictly Biden and Warren.
Small-town and rural Democrats? No one in this group really charms the rural Democratic voters, and that's a problem in the primary.
I would suggest that when the 50 primary situations are wrapped up.....at least 10-percent of the 2016 primary vote count will be missing in this upcoming election.
So in the end, you have Trump with a tough election to lose? That's the amusing thing about this election, and why I think Hillary could still arrive at the convention....fresh and ready to go, and make this a little bit interesting.
Monday, 4 November 2019
Saturday, 2 November 2019
Trump, Seabiscuit, and the Little Guy
One of my favorite movies of all time (there's probably twenty on that list, and it does include Harvey, Bridge Over River Kwai, and the Quiet Man) is this racing horse movie 'Seabiscuit' (2003). It didn't make a lot of money, and the majority of people would quietly admit they've never watched it.
'Seabiscuit' is about this down and out horse-race enthusiast, this down-and-out trainer, this down-and-out jockey, and this stubborn, hardheaded, and temperamental horse (Seabiscuit).
In the darkest of times (1930s depression era), this story unfolds.
Here's the thing about this horse.....in 99-percent of scenarios, this is a loser horse and carries way too much temper upon his shoulders. He doesn't want folks standing in his way. He doesn't care for calm nature. He doubts humans as 'controllers'. Everything about Seabiscuit would indicate that he's not destined for horse-racing.
Somehow, this trainer has found this kid who has similar issues. Between this odd foursome, there is a destiny that has been constructed. Seabiscuit basically can't lose, but only because he's got the rider, the trainer, and the owner who believe in the temperamental horse.
Trump's political life is more or less like Seabiscuit. Trump is temperamental, hardheaded, and stubborn. Without the public behind him (in the role of the owner, trainer and jockey)....he wouldn't have amounted to much of anything. So these things came together.
Then you have this thing about racetracks. If you've never been to a racetrack, there is this unusual charm about it. When you arrive and there's some legend on the track for one of the races.....people are pumped up. They want to see the horse run, and they want some charisma that most horses just can't give. They want to see a horse come from behind, and nudge the other horses to the side. They want something that you typically don't see much of.
This Trump era....whether you like or dislike him, is a sort of political tale revolving around the Seabiscuit twists and turns. There's certainly people there who are betting on the 'horse' to lose, and they'd like to get impossible odds. But the Seabiscuit-crowd are hyped-up and just thrilled to be at the track and to see one great horse gave a once-in-a-lifetime show.
It's the little guy, who wants to see this 'race' occur, and they've bought into the entire show.
'Seabiscuit' is about this down and out horse-race enthusiast, this down-and-out trainer, this down-and-out jockey, and this stubborn, hardheaded, and temperamental horse (Seabiscuit).
In the darkest of times (1930s depression era), this story unfolds.
Here's the thing about this horse.....in 99-percent of scenarios, this is a loser horse and carries way too much temper upon his shoulders. He doesn't want folks standing in his way. He doesn't care for calm nature. He doubts humans as 'controllers'. Everything about Seabiscuit would indicate that he's not destined for horse-racing.
Somehow, this trainer has found this kid who has similar issues. Between this odd foursome, there is a destiny that has been constructed. Seabiscuit basically can't lose, but only because he's got the rider, the trainer, and the owner who believe in the temperamental horse.
Trump's political life is more or less like Seabiscuit. Trump is temperamental, hardheaded, and stubborn. Without the public behind him (in the role of the owner, trainer and jockey)....he wouldn't have amounted to much of anything. So these things came together.
Then you have this thing about racetracks. If you've never been to a racetrack, there is this unusual charm about it. When you arrive and there's some legend on the track for one of the races.....people are pumped up. They want to see the horse run, and they want some charisma that most horses just can't give. They want to see a horse come from behind, and nudge the other horses to the side. They want something that you typically don't see much of.
This Trump era....whether you like or dislike him, is a sort of political tale revolving around the Seabiscuit twists and turns. There's certainly people there who are betting on the 'horse' to lose, and they'd like to get impossible odds. But the Seabiscuit-crowd are hyped-up and just thrilled to be at the track and to see one great horse gave a once-in-a-lifetime show.
It's the little guy, who wants to see this 'race' occur, and they've bought into the entire show.
Beto Never Got to Even 10-Percent
I will make three observations about Robert Francis O'Rourke (Beto):
1. This guy went from the El Paso city council job in 2011....to the House of Representatives job in 2013, and felt he was ready for the big time in 2018 as a US Senator (failed attempt), and in 2019....ready to be President (failed attempt). Current age? 47. I think he should have reserved his situation and ran for governor in Texas (2022) before he ever got the idea of running for Senator or President.
2. The anti-gun position? Among southern voters....it was a no-win situation. Even southern Democrats didn't like his position that much. His base of voters....whether he ever realized it....were southerners.
3. You have to wonder....if he'd run in 2016's Presidential primary against Hillary and Bernie.....would he have have taken 30-percent of the primary vote, and made the Convention into a more interesting situation?
1. This guy went from the El Paso city council job in 2011....to the House of Representatives job in 2013, and felt he was ready for the big time in 2018 as a US Senator (failed attempt), and in 2019....ready to be President (failed attempt). Current age? 47. I think he should have reserved his situation and ran for governor in Texas (2022) before he ever got the idea of running for Senator or President.
2. The anti-gun position? Among southern voters....it was a no-win situation. Even southern Democrats didn't like his position that much. His base of voters....whether he ever realized it....were southerners.
3. You have to wonder....if he'd run in 2016's Presidential primary against Hillary and Bernie.....would he have have taken 30-percent of the primary vote, and made the Convention into a more interesting situation?
Why Millionaires Leaving NY City is a Big Deal
With President Trump's announcement (which I expect the city of NY to pounce on his tax movement scheme, and accuse him of still being attached to NY City)....you need to stand back, admire the landscape and wonder about the future in NY City.
Because of various tax laws being pursued and the cost escalating....if you were fairly well off (say 10-plus million a year rolling in)....the taxation from NY state and the property tax in NY City....would eventually put you into Trump's mindset.
So let's say that in 2020....a hundred of these ultra-wealthy folks from NY City and maybe 1,000 of the semi-wealthy (those making $500k a year) realize the tax savings of Florida, or one of a dozen tax-friendly states, and leave. Who replaces them, or moves into their expensive condos? For a year or so, there might be some folks with desires to live in NY City, and they'd buy the Trump-houses or Trump-condos. But you'd reach a stage where the super-wealthy are not longer interested. They can easily fly in, and stay at some hotel....so why establish a house or condo there?
Around three years down the pike, you'd have lesser wealthy people established in NY City, and the tax revenue 'boss' would come up and tell the governor that there is a problem now existing (they would be missing 300-million to 500-million dollars in revenue).
Naturally, they'd think it was temporary. A year later....the amount would double.
Around by 2025, there would be some major meeting where the mayor and governor had a chat. They would aggressively go after people who'd left, and accuse them of still having NY City connections. The lawyers would smarten up and put the city on the defensive. These cases would be harder to prove.
By 2030, you'd have NY City in a tough position....cutting firemen and police, to reach a smaller budget. No one would want to admit defeat.
By 2035, you'd have the state of NY, wanting to cut the city off, to make two separate states. One would have a balanced budget, the other would be in serious debt.
Whether they like it or not....NY has a serious problem brewing.
Because of various tax laws being pursued and the cost escalating....if you were fairly well off (say 10-plus million a year rolling in)....the taxation from NY state and the property tax in NY City....would eventually put you into Trump's mindset.
So let's say that in 2020....a hundred of these ultra-wealthy folks from NY City and maybe 1,000 of the semi-wealthy (those making $500k a year) realize the tax savings of Florida, or one of a dozen tax-friendly states, and leave. Who replaces them, or moves into their expensive condos? For a year or so, there might be some folks with desires to live in NY City, and they'd buy the Trump-houses or Trump-condos. But you'd reach a stage where the super-wealthy are not longer interested. They can easily fly in, and stay at some hotel....so why establish a house or condo there?
Around three years down the pike, you'd have lesser wealthy people established in NY City, and the tax revenue 'boss' would come up and tell the governor that there is a problem now existing (they would be missing 300-million to 500-million dollars in revenue).
Naturally, they'd think it was temporary. A year later....the amount would double.
Around by 2025, there would be some major meeting where the mayor and governor had a chat. They would aggressively go after people who'd left, and accuse them of still having NY City connections. The lawyers would smarten up and put the city on the defensive. These cases would be harder to prove.
By 2030, you'd have NY City in a tough position....cutting firemen and police, to reach a smaller budget. No one would want to admit defeat.
By 2035, you'd have the state of NY, wanting to cut the city off, to make two separate states. One would have a balanced budget, the other would be in serious debt.
Whether they like it or not....NY has a serious problem brewing.
The Problem with 'Quid Pro Quo' in an Impeachment
Once you've determined that 'quid pro quo' is a crime....you basically open the door for every future president to be second-guessed, and he be brought in for impeachment as well (you can probably find at least two dozen occasions that President Obama would be guilty of quid pro quo crimes, and maybe double-that for President Bush).
If you wanted an absolute mess on your hands.....go for it, and stand back to see the republic in a turbulent mess for the next twenty years.
If you wanted an absolute mess on your hands.....go for it, and stand back to see the republic in a turbulent mess for the next twenty years.
Thursday, 31 October 2019
How Many 'Russian-Assets' Do Exist Now?
It's an odd question. Three years ago, you would not have asked it. Now with Hillary, various journalists, and maybe a quarter of the Democratic-voters hyped up on this....you have to ask it?
A dozen? A hundred? A thousand? Ten-thousand? One-hundred thousand?
You just don't know.
Just in Washington DC alone....might there be seven-hundred Russian assets?
Could Joy Behar from the View be a Russian asset?
Could Rachel Maddow from MSNBC be a Russian asset?
Could half the staff at Fox News be a Russian asset?
Could the mayor of Chicago (Lori Lightfoot) be a Russian asset?
Could Trump himself be a Russian asset?
Could four actors from the Marvel series be Russian assets?
Could Mark Zuckerberg from Facebook be a Russian asset?
Could the weather guy from Huntsville's Channel 31, be a Russian asset?
Could that kid who made up waffles for you this morning at the Waffle House....be a Russian asset?
So I suggest that we all need to have a signal to convey to each other (secretly of course)....that we aren't Russian assets. Upon meeting someone....moving your right hand up to rub your left shoulder, and if the guy greeting you responds in the same way....then you can be sure they aren't a Russian asset.
A dozen? A hundred? A thousand? Ten-thousand? One-hundred thousand?
You just don't know.
Just in Washington DC alone....might there be seven-hundred Russian assets?
Could Joy Behar from the View be a Russian asset?
Could Rachel Maddow from MSNBC be a Russian asset?
Could half the staff at Fox News be a Russian asset?
Could the mayor of Chicago (Lori Lightfoot) be a Russian asset?
Could Trump himself be a Russian asset?
Could four actors from the Marvel series be Russian assets?
Could Mark Zuckerberg from Facebook be a Russian asset?
Could the weather guy from Huntsville's Channel 31, be a Russian asset?
Could that kid who made up waffles for you this morning at the Waffle House....be a Russian asset?
So I suggest that we all need to have a signal to convey to each other (secretly of course)....that we aren't Russian assets. Upon meeting someone....moving your right hand up to rub your left shoulder, and if the guy greeting you responds in the same way....then you can be sure they aren't a Russian asset.
Sunday, 27 October 2019
Eating Out
I sat down the other night and was calculating how many different restaurants and cafes I've eaten at....in my 60 years of life. I would calculate that it's up between 3,500 and 4,500 total.
You have to remember, I've traveled around 70-percent of Alabama, around thirty-two states in the US, Australia, Iceland, Panama, New Zealand, Singapore, Dubai, South Africa, and twenty-odd countries in Europe.
I've eaten at some absolute terrible places...not worth mentioning. I've eaten at some airports that I left three-quarters of the meal on the plate. I've been served French hamburgers that were only 50-percent done (yeah, I left it on the plate).
But along the way, I've eaten at some rather fine places, so this is the list of the top five that made the list.
1. A mom-and-pop Italian shop in Vittorio Veneto, Italy....that was mostly hidden away and just a doorway leading to a long walk to this shop with just ten tables, run by Italian women all over the age of sixty. The place had ceiling fans running, and the paint-job was something out of the 1960s (this was 1995). Everything they served was rich and zesty....freshly made in the past hour. In the background was some Italian opera music, and the ladies waiting for the slightest hint of something being just a tad wrong. I was there for just seven days, and ate every night at the same place.
2. A couple of years ago, I went off to Vienna, and one evening....I really wanted something a bit different, and this thing showed up on Google.....'The Blue Donkey'. It's way off the street and just about impossible to find. But here's the thing....they served ribs, the old-fashioned way. Heavily marinated and cooked over a outdoor grill. A big patio area was the landscape, with the grill smell in the air, and these ribs ended up being the best I'd ever eaten.
3. A number of years ago, I went on a trip to the heart of Bavaria and ended up one night eating at a place in Ramsau....deep in the Alps....at a place called the Gasthof Oberwirt. It's a combination hotel and restaurant. I ended up with this gravy-dish with big chunks of marinated beef, and dumplings that made your eyes water. Afterwards, they brought out this desert plate (a heaping of some apple dish) with freshly home-made ice cream on top. There in this beer-garden area, in the midst of summer, you could gaze off at the mountains and appreciate a great moment.
4. In my period in Tucson, Arizona....down the street we had this grill operation called 'Jacks'. Jacks bar-b-q'ed in some hut around the back of the building, and had some secret recipe for everything. They did chicken, ribs, and briskets. They made some kind of charged-up beans with a spiced-up taste. You'd look at the building and think it'd marginally pass any health inspection. They would actually mount each inspection paper on the wall and always had near 95-percent for the grading. You'd almost think that nothing had changed in the building since 1955 (this was 1990).
5. Finally, there's this place on the road road through Athens, Alabama for catfish....called the Catfish Cabin (maybe number II or III). Between the five star tea (all you can drink), the hush-puppies, and the catfish....it's one of the few places left in the world where for $15, you get a fantastic dinner. Rustic? Well, yeah, that's probably the flip side of my choices.....I never select fancy dining places.
You have to remember, I've traveled around 70-percent of Alabama, around thirty-two states in the US, Australia, Iceland, Panama, New Zealand, Singapore, Dubai, South Africa, and twenty-odd countries in Europe.
I've eaten at some absolute terrible places...not worth mentioning. I've eaten at some airports that I left three-quarters of the meal on the plate. I've been served French hamburgers that were only 50-percent done (yeah, I left it on the plate).
But along the way, I've eaten at some rather fine places, so this is the list of the top five that made the list.
1. A mom-and-pop Italian shop in Vittorio Veneto, Italy....that was mostly hidden away and just a doorway leading to a long walk to this shop with just ten tables, run by Italian women all over the age of sixty. The place had ceiling fans running, and the paint-job was something out of the 1960s (this was 1995). Everything they served was rich and zesty....freshly made in the past hour. In the background was some Italian opera music, and the ladies waiting for the slightest hint of something being just a tad wrong. I was there for just seven days, and ate every night at the same place.
2. A couple of years ago, I went off to Vienna, and one evening....I really wanted something a bit different, and this thing showed up on Google.....'The Blue Donkey'. It's way off the street and just about impossible to find. But here's the thing....they served ribs, the old-fashioned way. Heavily marinated and cooked over a outdoor grill. A big patio area was the landscape, with the grill smell in the air, and these ribs ended up being the best I'd ever eaten.
3. A number of years ago, I went on a trip to the heart of Bavaria and ended up one night eating at a place in Ramsau....deep in the Alps....at a place called the Gasthof Oberwirt. It's a combination hotel and restaurant. I ended up with this gravy-dish with big chunks of marinated beef, and dumplings that made your eyes water. Afterwards, they brought out this desert plate (a heaping of some apple dish) with freshly home-made ice cream on top. There in this beer-garden area, in the midst of summer, you could gaze off at the mountains and appreciate a great moment.
4. In my period in Tucson, Arizona....down the street we had this grill operation called 'Jacks'. Jacks bar-b-q'ed in some hut around the back of the building, and had some secret recipe for everything. They did chicken, ribs, and briskets. They made some kind of charged-up beans with a spiced-up taste. You'd look at the building and think it'd marginally pass any health inspection. They would actually mount each inspection paper on the wall and always had near 95-percent for the grading. You'd almost think that nothing had changed in the building since 1955 (this was 1990).
5. Finally, there's this place on the road road through Athens, Alabama for catfish....called the Catfish Cabin (maybe number II or III). Between the five star tea (all you can drink), the hush-puppies, and the catfish....it's one of the few places left in the world where for $15, you get a fantastic dinner. Rustic? Well, yeah, that's probably the flip side of my choices.....I never select fancy dining places.
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