Five States in the Game for 2020

1.  New Mexico.  Clinton won NM mostly in 2016 because of the Libertarian candidate (Johnson)....carrying 9.3-percent of the vote in the state.  Johnson won't be around in 2020, and I doubt if the libertarian candidate can get more than 3-percent of the vote.  

If you count those votes returning to Trump, then toss in police disenchanted folks (active and retired)....it probably will be a narrow race where 3k votes might separate Trump and Biden.  Toss in the factor as well....McMuffin....is also not in this race, so there's another 5k votes which you can't really identify who might get them.

My best guess is that Trump marginally will win because of this Libertarian situation.  Latinos for Trump here?  It might actually matter.  Probably a 3-point difference between Trump and Biden in this situation.

2.  Colorado.  Clinton won Col by 130k votes.  The Libertarian situation in 2016?  144k.  So I'm forecasting that fewer than 35k Libertarian votes will occur in 2020, and that 100k votes easily side with Trump on this election.  Again, you toss in the police de-fund situation, with active and retired folks....there's probably another 50k votes across the state which will side with Trump on this occasion.

My best guess is that Trump will marginally take Colorado....maybe by 50k to 80k votes.

3.  Minnesota.  McMuffin took 53k votes in 2016, and those votes have to go elsewhere in 2020.  Same story with the Libertarian effort in 2016 (112k vote).  Toss in the de-fund the police anger, police votes, and those affected by the looting and riots.  

My best guess is that Trump edges upward from his 2016 count (1.32-million) to around 1.5 million....more than enough to easily win the state.  It might be a six-point win for Trump here.  

4.  California.  McMuffin and Libertarians took around 510k votes in 2016.  I'd carve off 300k of these votes and give them to Trump in 2020.  I'd also be generous and say say that 500k votes for Hillary Clinton in 2016....will flip (mostly because of the riots, looting, negativity existing in SF).  Toss in a higher black/Latino vote as well for Trump.  

My best guess is that Trump will take near 6-million votes....way better than 2016, but not enough to win.  Joe Biden wins, but it's a shaky win in several areas (especially around LA).  Having Harris on the ballot in California probably doesn't help much. 

5.  Finally.....Michigan.  Trump marginally won in 2016.  If you toss out McMuffin, and half the Libertarian votes....toss in the defund-the-police chatter, looting and rioting.....added black votes this time around....there's probably an added 350k votes this time around to whatever Trump had four years ago.

My best guess is that Trump carries a 8-point lead over Joe Biden to the end.  Trump-win easily.

Observations

 1.  99-percent of people who take a item to be repaired.....know the 'deal'....you sign the bottom to return and pay for the services at the end, to get your property back.  So it's hard for the bulk of society to grasp how Hunter Biden turned over three laptops, and just simply 'walked-away'.  

My belief?  I think he was fairly doped up when he dropped them off, and forget all about them. 

2.  These 50 top VIP intelligence folks coming out for Joe Biden?

This is the basic story.  These 50-odd individuals were all part of the Clinton, Bush and Obama intelligence leadership.  They believe their statement in supporting will reshape the election.

The effect? I would suggest they converted zero votes.  This was more of a 'dog-and-pony' show, to give the networks some hyped-up chatter.  

3.  This court case being developed against Google, by the Justice Department...any big worries?

Google, in its heart and mind....believe even if it reaches an end-stage....it'll just be a fine of a half-billion dollars, and life will go on.

However, the intent here....to demonstrate to Facebook and Twitter....might be to force Google into dividing up it's business (like what happened to AT&T).  In that case, Google might be fairly unhappy about the results.

4.  All this censorship chatter by the Washington Post....aimed at Trump?

Basically, they wrote up an editorial piece and suggested that social media must censor Trump, from now until the election.....to correct his behavior.

People looking at this....might then ask....shouldn't the Washington Post just stop production of all election news....till the day after the election as well?  We might all agree....massive censorship for the entire last month....by EVERYONE....would be a brilliant idea.

5.  Russian 'disinformation'?

I know, it gets repeated almost fifty times a minute now, by various news groups.  None of them can explain how it's Russian, and not Chinese, or not of a French origin.  

6.  Boeing putting it's Seattle-area headquarters up for sale?

Well....it's a rumor that they've packaged the real estate and would like to sell.  The odds of anyone offering money?  I'd put it near 1-percent.  

The message here?  Things around Seattle aren't that appealing now, and for a commercial operation....that's a bad sign.

7.  Around two weeks ago....this big massive 'Trump' sign appeared in the Hollywood hills, and freaked folks out.

Yesterday, a 2nd Trump sign appeared.

8.  What happens to Hunter in the end?

This new piece with the underage girls video?  The Delaware Police have the video and are piecing the story together.  At the very least...one might suspect that Hunter will be detained in the next month, and have to stand for some court action.  If convicted....a minimum of a year out of this.  

At that point, I see Hunter at the end of the 'glory' period, and no real income after he gets out of jail.  Maybe he's still got 10-million dollars stashed away somewhere and just quietly lives out the rest of his life.  

The Revolutions That Never Get Told

 This is one of those historical essays that I occasionally write, and deals with a topic that is rarely discussed in German society or in German schools.  The subject....the revolutions of 1840s (note, I used the word plural here).

So to lay out the landscape that existed....Prussia was on the initial steps of unifying the country and still way off from a unified Prussia/Germany.

Most people will say that the revolutions basically started at a weekend fest held at Hambacher Castle (about forty km's SW of Mannheim).  All in one weekend?  This was a spring fest held in the local community around the castle....starting on 27 May, and ending 30 May 1832.  It's safe to say that a fair amount of alcohol was consumed and a lot of talk occurred by the locals and the guests in this period.

This area around the Hambacher Castle was fairly well known in the previous thirty years as a region where students and intellectuals gathered and 'chatted'.  It had been under some influence of the French before.  This group of 'radicals' ended up discussing in the weeks and months prior to the fest....freedoms.  

One of these discussions revolved around freedom of the press....to openly talk about corruption and ill-habits of the leadership.

Historians generally figure that around 30,000 people gathered for the fest, and it was more about expressing discontent....than partying up with booze.

When the fest ended....one could say that it left people with enthusiasm to voice discontent and frustration over where their governments (regionally) were going.

So all of this brewed....until the spring of 1848 (16 years later)....then all hell broke loose.

The regions affected?  Prussia, Austria, Saxony, Baden, the Pfalz, the Rhineland, and Bavaria. 

Historians generally figure that 400k revolutionaries were in the mix of things....opposed by the police and military authorities (figure a minimum of 40k altogether).

The general demand?  Social change, rights structure, improved work conditions, and voting rights (meaning the kingdom business would eventually dissolve). 

By the summer of 1849....roughly 15 months later....the various revolutions had been put down. The authorities would say they 'won'.  The leaders of the rebellion?  Well...curiously...most left Germany and resettled in the US (in the central region).  Yes, a lot of this German immigrant mix in 1849 and the next couple of years were the result of this rebellion effort and revolution.

This revolution stuff leading to a republic?  One could say that the path was laid out and Prussia was forever changed by this period of chaos.

Karl Marx's book Das Kapital coming twenty years after the revolutionary period?  This is another piece of the story, and Das Kapital probably laid out all of the wishes and desires to correct things....still left from the revolutionary period.

You can imagine this 1847 to 1848 period being very similar to the American 1770s era, and the disenchantment with the British leadership, taxes, and lack of reform.  

Being openly laid out and simple to understand?  No.  Because you have so many regions and separate parts to the story....historians generally make this a miserable experience to read through and understand.  I think it'd make a great historical mini-series, but telling the story would require at least a dozen evenings.  

So to the final part of this story....after the 1849 ending of the revolutions...a number of German/Prussian states sat down and in 1851....created various versions of the Secret Police.  Their whole purpose in life....stifle or limit political discontent.  This meant infiltrating various groups, knowing their path and plans, and countering them.

Yeah....this 1851 action did create the simple path were the Munich Secret Police would hire a young guy by the name of Hitler....to be a insider and spy to a new and progressing party (the Nazis).  It took seven decades, but it opened up a whole new dilemma to be handled.  

The Month After the Election

 Financially speaking....roughly 20-percent of the nation (if you believe what the financial chat folks are saying)....will be out of 'capital' to survive in the four weeks after the election.  In simple terms, by Thanksgiving....a new harsh reality will have occurred.

Similar in nature to the period of the Wall Street crash in the year after the 4 September 1929 event?  In this case, it's not related to banks lacking cash....it's individuals (regular people) who will lack the cash.

Resolving this by the House in the month after the election? I don't think so.  All indications show that various states will not have concluded their election count and all emphasis by the news networks will focus upon this....rather than the personal dilemma of 50-odd million Americans.

With stimulus money, open society and business operations, and ban rules in effect...there's a crash coming.  It probably doesn't matter if Trump wins, or Biden wins, or we have no winner....to move onto 3 January and the use of the back-up system.  

Holding governors, mayors, and various political leaders responsible?  It's hard to see this happening.

So I'll suggest these five things coming down the pike:

1.  A lot of people are going to be forced out of their leases, and pack cars to head 'home'.  They are hoping that Mom and Dad can sustain them in this period of crisis (whether this is good idea or not....doesn't matter).  

2.  I would expect a fair number of people residing in NY City, LA, and SF....to be part of this next wave.  But I'd go further to suggest people coming out of Miami, Houston, Chicago, and other urbanized centers.

3.  The news media will act like they never saw this coming.  In truth, they've been disconnected from society for well over twenty years.  

4.  Social media (Facebook and Twitter) will sow massive discontent.  People will talk about their fall from 'grace', and hype on revolution.

5.  Neither Trump or Biden will have any vision to resolve this....other than trying to get people back to work.  If governors don't want to participate...then Bide/Trump action won't matter.

So on the morning after the election....mark your calendar and start observing the national trend.  That four weeks will be pretty rough.  

A Baseball Chat

 We are days away from the 2020 baseball season ending.  My interest in this season....between the Covid business and childish political stances being played out....is virtually zero.

But we are entering the point where various contracts on players are supposed to up for renewal or new teams bidding on players.

The number of 4-star players up for new contracts?  Roughly 35 folks.  

The odds of no-pay-raises in twenty of these?  I'd give it pretty high chance.

The odds that five of these players might not be offered contracts at all?  Yes, that's another high chance situation.

The odds that none of them get more than a three-year contract?  Another high chance situation.

If you were an agent to these players....it'd be a dismal period to walk and talk money with the teams.

Can you even make a real estimate of a player's value....based on the marginal season of 2020?  No, that's another problem with this whole discussion.

Will they even attempt a true 160-game season in 2021?  I'd question that logic, and suggest at best....you might be looking at a 120-game or less 2021 season. 

Screwed-up?  Yes, and just another reason why I have no real interest looking ahead at base (or football, or NBA action).  

Observations

 1.  If you laid out the current Hunter Biden story back in the 1980s....Joe Biden would be finished off and the DNC would have to hype up Harris to fill the slot.  But this symbolizes how screwed up things are, in that the news media and social media have to deny this to the ninth degree, and junk their 'trust-status' to the general public.  In essence, they think a crack-head like Hunter is just another regular guy in the neighborhood.  

2.  James Clapper says the Russians are behind the whole Hunter-laptop story.  

3.  We are confronted now on a hour by hour basis, with fact-checkers.  You can probably note around twenty individuals in an average day....telling you they fact-checked things for you.

4.  If you asked an average group of Americans....one-thousand in number....to explain what the hell a Marxist is.....98-percent would be silent for about 30 seconds and ask you to clarify the question.  One-percent would respond they knew a Mark Syst back in grade school...who had a collection of Iron-Man comics.  This would leave you one-percent who could give you a 3-line explanation of Marxist.

5.  Rumor has it that only 5-percent of the Hunter hard-drive has been openly discussed in the NY Post so far.  That leaves you around 20 front-pages of sensational news before they are finished.

6.  State with highest unemployment rate currently?  Hawaii.  Remember....there's virtually no industry there, and tourism is their 'bread and butter'.

7. Five US airlines are 'near' default status (Jet Blue, United, Delta, SouthWest, and American).  The odds here of at least two, maybe three....having to combine...to survive?  I'd give it better than 50-percent odds.  The odds of one disappearing entirely by January?  Better than 50-percent odds as well.

8.  Serious science study says Corona can survive on your skin for 9 hours.  So using a quart of alcohol-rub on your buddy over the whole day....might not be that crazy.  I might mix some Aqua Velva solution into it....to give it a manly smell.

9.  Joe says he could mandate or make you wear a mask, period.  Well....he says that.

10.  Rumor started up late in the week that the White House is looking at potential Executive Orders to be given to Twitter.  You'd have to wonder....how they'd react, and if they were crazy enough to shut it down for 24 hours to make a point.  

11.  This Ice Cube guy is looking more and more interesting each day.  Liberal press is hating the guy.  Ice Cube may have done more for the black community in past six months.....than Obama's crew did over eight years.  

12.  Over past hundred years, you just can't find any single episode of censorship that went well for the party/group/press conducting it.  In each single case, a value of trust was lost.

13.  Tab is dead (or will be shortly).  Tab has been around since 1963.  A fair number of folks never realized that Coke made 3 variations of Tab (Tab clear, Tab Energy, and Tab X-tra).  On soda taste?  Its the only soda that I'd rank as minus-zero.  

14.  New season of Star Trek Discovery started up.  First episode?  Well....it just has the look and feel of Star Wars.  

15. If you found out that various high-ranking CCP Chinese Party officials had easy meetings set up with VP Joe during the Obama era....would it really bother you?  

Joe Logic

From last night's chatter with Joe Biden......this one episode unfolded with the mother of some 8-year-old kid who was transgender.  The mom wanted to be sure that Joe was onboard with this stuff.  To which Joe said: "....being transgender is a choice, that children "decide" to be trans."

All day, this has been on my mind.  Eight-year old kid.....happy mother from the stuff....Joe indicating that kids need to decide on this.

So, it finally occurred to me that this was a logical moment to think about the whole landscape.  If this kid is capable of making the decision, it ought to lead onto:

- Marriage at 8

- Tattoos at 8

- Voting (yes even at age 8)

- Drivers license by 8

- Buying cigarettes', booze, and beer

- Traveling to Mexico alone

- Wrapping up school by the 4th grade

Call it Joe-logic or just plain common sense....but we just don't need to stand in the way of a 8-year-old kid.  If Karl wanted to hook up with the lunch-room-lady, or try jumping off the barn roof (at 40 foot)....let him make the decision.  If Karl wanted to travel up to Alaska and hunt bears....let him.  If Karl wanted to perform some bronco-riding....let him. 

This would be a whole new world, where you'd have folks prepared for real life by age sixteen.