Thursday, 8 April 2021

Observations

 1.  It's just odd...nearly three weeks after being 'tapped' to head up the border crisis business....NOT one single visit by VP 'Heels' to the border.  It's almost like having a doorway into a room where a 500-pound guerrilla lurks, and you'd just prefer to avoid the situation.

2.  Burisma board member (Devon), Hunter, and Joe Biden.....all in a West Wing meeting at the White House....going back to 2014?  Yep, on that laptop of Hunters....it's scheduled out for the three to meet.  A normal House committee would open an investigation. 

3.  It came out today, some folks have reviewed the massive infrastructure plan of President Biden's vision.  They say....based on the numbers....only around 37-percent involves actual real infrastructure.  The rest is NON-infrastructure projects.  

4  My perception of the United plan to hire more women and more ethnic non-whites to the pilot the business?  Well...I don't have a problem as long as they meet the educational guidelines that have typically existed for pilot trainees over the fifty-odd years.  The minute, however, that you waiver mathematical skills....I won't fly your airline.  

Then you have this odd dilemma existing, when you bring in marginally qualified people with low math skills, realizing your mistake, and how to dismiss them.  You could be drawn into a negotiation room, and having to pay off some guy to the tune of half-a-million. 

5.  Yeah, that black-box data on Tiger Wood's vehicle....from the accident....kind of reveals he was doing 83 mph in a 45 mph zone.  It's not like the old days where you could have an accident and not remember something.  

Tuesday, 6 April 2021

Talking Tax Woes

 I looked over a NY Post story today....NY state is wrapping up a special 'ultra-rich' tax....to bring in five-billion more dollars a year.  

Helping the 'exit' from the state?  I would suggest that whoever was remaining in NY....have the accountant adding up the amount of 'pain' dumped upon them, and figuring....where is the 'line' to leave?

It would be different if you had mild winters, 250 days of sunshine a year, almost no criminal behavior, and restaurants/bars completely open.  I just don't see a guy who makes $100-million a year....appreciating the tax increase.  

The 'gift' money from President Biden to shore up debt?  That really just bought them a minimum amount of time to resolve the slow flow of state tax money.  

Monday, 5 April 2021

'Kaepernicking' BLM/Baseball?

 For a long while, I thought baseball could survive the plan of the NFL and NBA involving Kaepernick and wokeism.  In the past week with the all-star game being yanked out of Atlanta....I'd suggest that MLB has taken the path to destroy itself....in the same way that the NBA and NFL destroyed themselves.

How I think this will go?  I'll offer five observations:

1.  While attendance numbers will look better in 2021 than in 2020 (because of Covid)....no club will meet the 2019 numbers, and at the most....well over half the clubs won't even hit the 50-percent point of 2019 for fan attendance.  

The 2.1-million for Arizona in 2019?  The 2.2-million for Minnesota in 2019?  These are clubs that will be lucky to hit 800k even if the states allow 50-percent attendance because of Covid for the first half of the season.  

2.  Salaries offered at the conclusion of the 2021 season?  Most of the free agents will be shocked at the offerings, and low-year deals (I doubt if more than 20-percent get a 3-year deal).  Some players will figure it's a one-year problem and just sign up for one year only, hoping to get a better deal at the conclusion of the 2022 season.

3.  Some big-names will be dumped at the end of the 2021 season because their contracts are too expensive to handle.

4.  Some teams will go into a rebuilding process for 2022 and 2023....hoping that the public gets over the all-star game hype by that point.

5.  The TV networks with contracts are going to be furious at the viewership numbers and demand meetings with baseball management to straighten out the mess by the middle of 2021.  Atlanta ought to stand up and suggest that they get the all-star games for 2022, 2023 and 2024....as a gift for MLB screwing up.

Where this goes?

I would suggest that the teams will meet in 2022 (spring) and lay out a plan to push the entire leadership of the Commissioners office out the door.  Low-budget baseball from 2022 on, for a couple of years?  Probably

From the Weekend

 I sat and watched bits and pieces of the Sunday political chatter shows.  Generally, the number one topic....how Biden trillion-dollar plan will go.

The chief thing you get....even from Democrats...it's only a handful who feel hyped-up and energized.  A fair number of Democrats are marginally happy over the plan, and you can detect the thrill fact is way below Biden's expectation.

At some point, Rep Ro Khanna (Democrat from some district in California) made some weird comment that really stuck to me.  It was a four line commentary, but in the middle of it....the words: "If you don't have a dignified job.....".  

For a good 30 minutes that comment stuck in my head.  I spent a fair amount of time in the military, and moving a good bit (10 times). For some reason, I never had this process of thinking over 'dignified' work.  Even when I went to the Pentagon for 3.5 years, I didn't process over the idea of 'dignified' work.

I think in Khanna's mind....working at McDonalds or some 7-11....challenges the idea of dignified work.  Although it's hard to place the reality of dignified work.  

Even if you got consumed with this dignified business....would it make you happier if you were doing undignified for $16 an hour?  

I worked in the Air Force with a Lt who got out after four years, and was going back to Florida.....to be a boat salesman.  I questioned his wisdom....four years of college, and four years of service....to be only a boat sales guy?  His logic was that it wasn't a 9 to 5 job....he came to work daily in ultra-casual wear...and he only had to put people in the frame of mind that $70k (1990s) wasn't a big deal for a boat.  

If you quizzed most people over their work?  I would suggest that 95-percent would never utter the phrase of dignified in their response. 

So back to the trillion-dollar spending deal....I don't think it'll pass as it is today.  Maybe Biden whittles off half the amount, or just calls it the $999-billion plan in the end, it happens.  As for the amount going to something that isn't wasteful?  You have to figure a dollar out of every four....is just being thrown into a pit with no value in return. 

Sunday, 4 April 2021

Observations:

 1.  Number of unaccompanied juveniles entering the US and caught in March?  19,000....officially announced yesterday.  

Is a trend?  Unknown. 

If it stayed near this level for remaining nine months?  It'd add up to 190,000 juveniles that someone has to supervise.  

At some point, some journalists is going to label them 'Biden's kids', and this will surge up to a massive problem with no solution. 

2.  This attacker at the capital...did he really say that the US government is the number ONE enemy of black people? 

Yeah, he did actually say that.  Maybe he wasn't so crazy after all. 

3.  CDC saying people can now travel?  Well....Covid-19 isn't exactly going away.  So it's just odd how they said this statement.

4.  "Too much risk aversion....is too risky", quote this week by Michael Barone. He's referring to Covid business, but after you sit and ponder over the comment....this quote might be correct about 90-percent of what we do in life.

5.  Does President Biden have any 'glue' for national unity?  

This past week, this topic has been on my mind.  For twenty years....essentially, 'glue' has been missing.  You can't even make the case for fake-glue existing. 

Saturday, 3 April 2021

Georgia, the All-Star Game, and the Spiral

 Yesterday, the decision was made...the 2021 All-Star Game for major-league baseball....will NOT be held in Atlanta.  This revolves the voting measure that was passed.

I've spent an hour looking over the story, and the economics.

First, there was a $37-to-$190-million pay-off for the city and region.  Cost for local taxpayers to host?  It was figured to be around $2-million (more or less).  

From that pay-off....a fair amount went toward services (both at hotels and the stadium) that employed blacks....so the cancellation hurt a fair number of local folks.

Second, by the half-way point of this season...at least half the clubs will be talking about this 'little' problem where a Friday night game is only getting 12,000 fans when it used to be 30,000 to show up.  

Third, merchandise hurt?  Go ask at the end of the season....how much merchandise sat there on shelf and was never purchased.

Fourth, getting all baseball announcers to avoid the discussion or topic of the All-Star game?  Nearly impossible, and I'll predict that ten of the announcers are terminated by the end of June over this problem.

So what'll happen?  I'll predict the teams hold a meeting the week after the All-Star game and demand some kind of compensation for their losses....which the league management can't produce.

At the conclusion of the season, the losses will figure upwards to one-third to half of what they'd typically make.  

If this goes into 2022 as well?  You just start laughing over the business plan....it won't work.

Observations:

 1.  Some leaked story started up....President Biden promises 'indirect' talks with Iran over nukes. 

Much to the story?  No.  

What it might mean?  A third-baseman from the Dodgers might be sent to Iran to talk over the nuke business.  As leaks go, this is a 2-star deal and not much attached to it.

2.  The baseball 'dumping' of Atlanta for the All-Star game?

By the time that the boycott hits maximum overdrive.....I would figure that the MLB folks lose around one-third to half of their attendance numbers and TV viewers.  Merchandise?  It'll be hit hard.  Some teams....particularly around the south (Marlins for example) might be in deep financial trouble by the end of the season.  

On the positive side....two seasons of this would be enough to wipe out five or six teams, and that might be a gain for both leagues.

3.  Did the NY Times suggest propaganda for the Biden infrastructure project?

Well....yeah.  Some folks were shocked.

My suggestion is that this will 'fumble' around the House for six weeks, and Pelosi will tell the White House to trim this down by 50-percent and resubmit.  

4.  Somewhere in this Biden infrastructure deal....$20 billion....mandated to reconnect neighborhoods suffering by racism.

I thought this was a joke....well, no, it's not.  Two short-range interstates (one in NY and other in New Orleans) are identified as harming the black community and would be taken down.  So access to these short pieces of transport would be terminated.  

I suspect once the communities realize the negative aspect....they will be furious.