Tuesday, 26 September 2017

How I See This NFL 'Script' Being Played Out

First, let me note that I've more or less in the last five years.....gone to zero NFL games watched.  In the 2010 to 2012 period....yeah, I probably watched a total of twelve games a season.  As for fan paraphernalia?  Other than a Braves shirt in the 1980s and a Braves hat in the 1990s....nothing else in my life.  And I've never been to an actual NFL game....ever.  Nor would I imagine myself paying $100 for a ticket.

By late November, an emergency meeting is held secretly by the owners and NFL management crowd.  The TV folks say one-third loss on viewers and discounted advertisements are occurring.  The normal $3.5 billion check for the season?  They step around the topic but will admit it'll be closer to $2.5 billion for this season.  Talk over future contracts with TV units?  Really screwed up and no one from the NFL wants to talk about it.  The fan paraphernalia expert says Christmas sales will be lagging and there might be a 50-percent cut on profits.  Ticket sales?  All bright.  Chief reason?  Most all tickets were sold in the summer period, way ahead of the first week.  Some teams have 100,000 tickets that were left and didn't sell in September, October or November.  The chief worry by the NFL?  The playoff game tickets and viewers.

By late January 2018, the playoff game tickets are deemed a success...although they sold over 100,000 tickets at 50-percent discount.  They had full stadiums and that's all that mattered.  Viewership in the playoff? Figured to be 30-to-40 percent from normal numbers....discount advertising occurred.

By late February 2018, the Super Bowl is deemed a success.  Full stadium.   Fan paraphernalia is deemed as massive failure.  T-shirts won't sell and truckloads were taken to garbage dumps to be quietly buried instead of sold at 75-percent discount.  Viewership is reported to be 60-percent of the 2016 Super Bowl.

By April 2018, General Managers meet and discuss contracts.  Long term contracts are more or less dumped.  No one wants to write a normal long-term deal.  The NFL draft?  The NCAA players are shocked because the amount of money talked about is twenty-percent less than last season.

By July 2018, three NFL owners are putting their teams up for sale.

By September 2018, the kneeing continues.  Ticket sales were slow in the summer and half the teams have over discounted their tickets by 10-percent.  Tickets are now occasionally being sold with three beers as part of the deal.

By October 2018, six games are played on one weekend with half the seats in the stadiums empty.  Teams are attempting to give away tickets to teens in the local areas....to fill the seats.

By November 2018, Fan paraphernalia is down to 40-percent of the normal sales level.  Some leather jackets are being sold at cost, with almost no profit for the team.  Owners meet.  There's a fear that their typical profit margin is affected now.  The TV folks talk of a $1.8-billion payoff.  Talks over better deals in the future are a lost cause.  The union wants a full-up meeting to talk about how things can be fixed.

By January 2019, the playoffs are seen as a thing of doom.  Tickets are sold at 60-percent normal playoff value.  Some sports bars are now talking about soccer and fan appreciation of the sport.

By March 2019, the Super Bowl is deemed a success....having filled the stadium.  Fifty-five percent of the normal viewers are noted and agents are now talking to players about a possible 10-percent cut across the board, and no contracts to be written for more than one single year.

By April 2019, NCAA draft episode is a major disappointment.  Offerings are 60-percent of what they were in 2016.

By August 2019, there's talk that five teams are openly discussing six-game ticket options for sale....with a full-price on two, and 50-percent price on the rest, with a discount on a leather jacket.  Some owners are worried over the fact that Trump will win the 2020 election and they won't be able to survive financially over another four-year period.

By January 2020, owners now meet and discuss the idea of cutting salaries across the board....by 40-percent.  The union says no.  A strike looms.  NFL owners don't care.  Strike starts by summer of 2020.  There is no season for 2020.

By March 2021, several NFL owners make a last pitch.  The union thinks they are bluffing.  The NFL is declared dead officially by November 2021.  Players are at a loss to explain plan B.  The networks have shifted to soccer.  And NCAA football is openly discussed as being finished....unable to show any reason to continue on past the 2021 season.

Why I Dislike Intellectuals

I sat and read through an essay piece today...centered on a piece from Wattsupwiththat.com.  They tend to do pieces on climate change or the lack of climate change.

This piece had to do with a National Public Radio writer and psychologist....Lisa Feldman Barrett.  Ms Barrett wrote up a piece that centered on this idea....that most of the logic that people use for not caring about climate change....is that the majority of people can’t imagine what 120 degrees F is about.  If you just dragged them out to Death Valley or Tucson, Arizona....in July....then they'd wise up and get proactive on climate change.

It's a good article and worth the read.  The guy writing it....Eric Worrall....tries to be nice about the naive nature of Ms Barrett....but it's obvious that she's bound and tied up with intellectualism and can't see the whole nature of her argument.

The wonderful thing about NPR is that they sit there and drag out intellectuals day after day....doing their best to convince you of X, Y and Z.  If you just went with the smart folks.....you'd be with the winning team.  After a while with the smart folks....sadly, you reach a stage where you begin to ask stupid questions....which most of the intellectuals don't like because you were supposed to just go along with the script.

Over the past twenty-odd years....I've come to various moments when a somewhat clever individual or insightful intellectual wants to introduce some new logic or variation on an idea.  What they present....in their mind....is a open-and-shut case.  It's obvious that they've spent a minimum amount of time and research effort on the topic....they just want you to tie yourself onto their agenda and be happy.  In my case....sadly, I'm a skeptic.  I ask questions.  If things seem too marvelous....I tend to ask why is this such an easy discussion.

In this case, I've been to Tucson, Arizona.  I was there in the early 1990s.  I can actually state that I stood there on a August afternoon at 4 PM....with the temperature near 117 degrees F.  You really don't know how wonderful 110 degrees F feels against 117 degrees F.  Yes, seven degree less, and it feels like the AC unit got turned on for a brief three seconds.

As for this convincing me of climate change?  No.  It would convince me that shade is something to appreciate and that ice water is a wonderful thing....but beyond that....no, feeling heat or cold doesn't change much of anything for me.

But let me add one thing.  If this logic made sense....then living around a hog-farm for twenty years would me very acceptable to some pretty stinky smells.  Or hanging around a nudist resort would get me used to normal regular nudity.  Or hanging around nutcases would make me likely to accept them as wise people.  Or listening to hours and hours of rap music....well, you know.  You just kinda wonder....what kind of college atmosphere she attended and how they convinced of this type of thought process.

The sad thing is that NPR will bring this intellectual back in two months and she'll deliver another plea for you to just accept things.

The NFL Pyramid

I sat and looked at the salary structure of the Chicago Bears today...with all this hype going on with kneeing and politicization.

The salary cap for the team is roughly 150-million (using the numbers from Sportrac).  Forty players in the mix.

With just the three quarterbacks and past quarterbacks with pay deals in the works....there's around 21-million per year in the balance.  Glennon alone...makes $14-million a year.  Trubisky (the number one back-up guy)....pulls in $5-million a year.  Sanchez, as the number two quarterback on the bench and rarely ever used....makes almost $2-million a year (mostly just for showing up and staying active on the plays).

Nine of the players draw in the $120,000 range.  Twenty-four players make in the $400,000 to $800,000 range.  The rest all make one-million dollars or more per year.

There's almost nine-million a year paid to people who either no longer play professional football, or have been let go by the team.

You gaze over the numbers and just shake your head.  Long gone are the guys who made an income related to the average middle-class worker in America.  Even if a guy is making $400k a season...with a six to eight year span of NFL action....they will top more than two million dollars.  The average American will never see that type of salary gain over forty years of his life.

It is a game played by millionaires, coached by millionaires, led by millionaire general manager, and impacted by owners who are millionaires who were crazy enough to be talked into paying a fantastic franchise price by the NFL leadership, who are all millionaires.  The networks hype the game in hopes of making millions and turning themselves all into millionaires.  The journalists provide minute-by-minute analysis in hopes of reaching the millionaire level themselves.  Who pays for the pyramid scheme?  You...the little guy....the common worker.

Through TV participate over fifty years of your life...probably influence over $5,000 through products used for NFL advertising (cars, chips, dip, etc).  Through fan paraphernalia?  That Chinese-made Green Bay Packers leather jacket?  $500.  The t-shirts and decals?  The $131 you spent on the Chicago Bears game last weekend?  It all leads to a pyramid scheme, with millionaires all playing around....some marginally....some better than others.