Sunday, 30 June 2019

Trump/Pence Versus Biden/Abrams

My ten observations:

1.  Will the Green Party and Libertarians matter in this race?  I would suggest the six-million votes that they carried in 2016....will not occur in 2020.  The 4.4-million votes of the Libertarian Party will dry up and probably half will retreat back to the Republicans.  The 730,000 votes for McMuffin?  They will fall mostly back to the GOP as well. 

In states like New Mexico, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Minnesota...all carried by Hillary in 2016, the loss of Libertarian and McMuffin votes...will aid Trump in likely winning those states. 

2.  Joe needs to win the twenty states that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016.  Then he needs to add three key states via the Abrams connection.  My guess is that Georgia, Florida, and Michigan will be the three Trump-states in play.  Abrams will probably be spending at least a third of time in the final 100 days in those three states, and hyping up black voters to show up on election day. 

3.  Black voters.  Well, if you look at black Trump-enthusiasts on YouTube, Facebook and Twitter....they are pulling in viewers and establishing a front that no one expected. 

For 2020, it won't surprise me if Trump pulls one-third of black male votes, particularly in the south.  It'll be less so for black female votes.....maybe only 15-percent (slightly more than he did with them in 2016).  If this holds true, then the Abrams connection in Florida, Georgia, and Michigan won't matter. 

4.  Latino voters.  In some states, their votes will matter (California, Nevada, and Texas).  There's no proof that more Latino voters will side with Biden/Abrams in 2020.  There's also no proof that the migration crisis since 2016....has changed voting habits of Latinos. 

5.  The Hillary national vote in 2016 was 65.8-million votes.  Biden shouldn't even try to match or reach the same level.  He needs to capitalize on state-by-state votes, and find three states that Trump won....flipping them over.  I would even go and suggest that Biden could win the election with less than 60-million votes....if they were more distributed into Florida, Georgia, and Michigan. 

6.  Trump capital.  Trump has no real competition for the primary season, and he'll likely hold 80 to 90 percent of his funding until after the convention.  With small-time donors acting on their own....he'll probably match the Hillary (combined with the DNC funding and PAC funding) pot of $700 million of 2016, and possibly exceed that.  Biden will likely have spent the bulk of his campaign chest by the convention, and will depend on big-time donors to replenish his funding for the fall campaign. 

7.  As much as Twitter, Facebook and Google hate what Trump has done to use their assets to reach the level he has.....they are fairly limited in what they can accomplish at this point.  Neither Biden or Abrams has the personality or character to really come back on comments like Trump has.

8.  Having the Democratic Convention in Milwaukee?  Maybe it's a message that they are middle-class America, and for the working man.  But here's this odd factor....it'll be held the week of 13 July.  The GOP Convention will be five weeks later (deep in August).  The Republicans will hold an advantage on public sentiment and enthusiasm, and it'll flow through Sep and Oct.  It's a mistake on the Democrats part.

9.  If Biden used Beto and Yang a great deal in campaigning?  Biden needs college and Latino voters to show up.  If Biden's magic three states flip....he'd win and owe some credit to Beto and Yang.....both would get cabinet seats (as would Harris as the new AG). 

10.  The odds that Trump might flip and go for an entirely different VP?  I'd go and suggest it's a 90-percent chance.  If he were to pick some Latino ex-governor of New Mexico (Martinez)?  It would put an awful pain on the Democratic Party there in the critical last hundred days of the campaign.  If she were campaigning just in three or four western state states (particularly Texas, NM, Nev and California)....you might see a plus-up of 500,000 votes compared to 2016 in those states.  And here is the odd factor.....people might have a bold view of Martinez, and see her as the likely candidate in 2024, and really throw the Democrats into a messy situation because they've only got one good option....run Abrams as the choice in 2024. 

All of this leads to the curious scenario that Trump might come out with the majority of votes, and get ten-odd states that voted for Biden....yet the state legislatures wrote that funny rule to give their Electoral Votes away to the public vote winner. 

Trump and Kim

Step by step...they are still maneuvering this situation toward some conclusion. 

If you figure Trump will likely be around til 2024....it's fairly good odds that some type of treaty will be worked out...that simply says the War is over, and there's a new evolution taking place.  Yeah....a 12-line piece that simply agrees there is no real conflict. 

It won't happen in 2019.  2020 is questionable. 

But it'll open up the door for the US to pull out a certain number of troops (24,000 US troops in South Korea today).  My humble guess is that treaty will open up with 3,000 US troops leaving within sixty days, and another 10,000 a year down the line. 

The end-result will be a small contingent....maybe in the 3,000 range by the end of 2024. 

Trade will be established between the US and North Korea as part of this whole deal.

Some folks will be sitting there in shock....that Trump accomplished all of this, without any intellectual state department folks handling the process.