Basic story....Andrew Yang (former Democrat Party candidate for 2020) has decided to form a 3rd party.....called the Forward Party.....running in 2024. His intent? To draw both Republicans and Democrats....fed up with the mess presently.
Odds? There are seven observations here:
1. From the Republican side.....you have the never-Trump folks, who probably number around 1 to 2 million around the US. If Trump is the Republican candidate.....this group would gather under Yang.
2. For the Democratic Party....assuming it's either Mayor-Pete, or Governor Newsom....I'd suggest that somewhere around 3-to-5 million might find Yang interesting and pass their vote to him.
3. In the south, Yang has zero chance of taking in any state.
4. I could see states like Rhode Island, Maine, and New Hampshire possibly going to Yang.
5. The chief problem....Yang subtracts more from the Democrats, than the Republicans.
6. On college campuses....Yang is probably a more dynamic guy than Trump or Newsom.
7. Among blacks and Latinos? Zero impact.
So to this final issue.....if he were to take 25-odd electoral votes and trigger avoiding the Electoral College.....then it goes to the House, and a more interesting race occurs.
The wild idea? What if Newsom were to win in the House race, and DeSantis was Trump's VP candidate....were to win in the Senate?
