Saturday, 18 April 2015

Gov Mike Huckabee for President

There are ten potential folks running for the Republican nomination in 2016.  There's supposed to be an announcement this week that Huckabee is also running.

The odds of him getting in the top three?  Zero.

He has some limited appeal to a small audience across the south, and I suspect his end-game is to subtract votes from Jeb Bush in five or six states.  Three percentage points here, six percentage points there, and limited to strictly six states (my guess: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Louisiana).

This will end up being a bit of a tough race and no clear winner prior to the convention.  Since most states have dropped a winner-take-all point system for the primary.....folks get a percentage of delegates showing up for the convention.  My humble guess is that Huckabee hopes to have five percent of the votes.  He's doing this mostly to swing his votes around at the right time to another candidate.

As for a cabinet post later for Huckabee?  Maybe he'll get some to Cuba or such.