Wednesday, 4 March 2020

Bloomberg Path Finished

Yep.  Over $500-million spent.  And as of this hour, he's resigned from the campaign. 

It's strictly a race between Sanders and Biden to reach the convention now.  Neither, I suspect, will have the numbers on the first ballot. 

The Brokered Convention and the VP Choice

At this point, it's safe to say that it's a race between Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden.  Bloomberg?  He has the money to carry the race onto the end, and willing to spend another quarter-billion easily, but if he doesn't win at least five or six states....he has zero standing in a brokered deal.  Can you imagine getting to the second round of the convention and his name is put up as the brokered candidate, then the number of state wins is only two or three?  Bernie and Joe delegates will just be standing there and laughing.

So the question comes down to an important part of the race.  Joe Biden is in serious trouble still with Ukraine deal and facing a likely impeachment once (if) he wins.  On top of that, a second impeachment charge could come up, over his mental state (dementia).  So the VP matters.

Then the question arises over Bernie Sanders if his health is crappy, and maybe he'll need to be replaced in the first twelve months. 

So as they emerge out of the first ballot at the convention....the real discussion is....who either would choose for a VP, and the likely odds that they'd end up as President (under the various issues).

Is this going to be more of an election of Trump running against the VP?  Yes.  That's the funny part of the path ahead. 

Five Things From Super-Tuesday Efforts

1.  Bloomberg may have picked up a delegate or two.....but the results of the day suggest that he hasn't changed the race in any fashion.  The millions spent?  Worth nothing.  He should have held out.....gone as a independent, and waged the billion dollars on a 3rd party effort.  At this point, if he shows up at the Convention as a marginalized candidate....the 2nd ballot gimmick would be a joke if he were the nominee.

2.  Bernie Sanders 'social-vision' doesn't sell in the south.  The numbers from various states suggest that.

3.  If you'd asked most political analysts the worst duo to run in the 2nd half of the primary season.....Biden and Sanders are it.

4.  Zero chance that a first round ballot will conclude at the Democratic convention with a 'winner'.

5.  The real winner out of the Super-Tuesday voting?  Donald Trump.