Wednesday 1 July 2020

The Thing About Misery Indexes

Back around 21 years ago....an Economist came up and developed something that he called a "Barro Misery Index".  This guy (Robert Barro) basically took the sum of current inflation, added the unemployment rate numbers....then tossed the current interest rate.   Then you would plus-up or minus down the shortafall/surplus.....with the current trend of the GDP growth.  This was the original way of doing a misery index.

Several folks came along after that (Steve Hanke is one example) to develop their own misery index.

When you first hear the term 'misery index'.....you tend to think of some guy living on the edge of life, in a house-trailer, marginally getting $1,500 after taxes are taken out, and mostly drinking cheap beer.  Then you compare that dude against some guy who makes $100,000 a year....lives in some urban dwelling with a high maintenance wife who spends $300 a week on fitness gurus....driving an imported BMW that requires a $300 oil change every six months, and going to some Tampa beach hotel every other month.  In my view of that misery index....the house-trailer dude might actually be less miserable than the $100k guy.

I worked with a guy once, who'd gotten seriously in debt from the first wife....owing almost $50,000 on various bills that she'd racked up, and the cost of a lawyer to arrange a divorce.  There wasn't a day that didn't pass at work where he would talk of his misery feelings, and his index was mostly maxed out.

I talk about this misery index business because you can see an awful lot of folks now in some degree of misery with the Coronavirus, the national trend, and stupidity via various state and local officials.  This frustration level is building.  I noticed some guy talking today of the impact on his Los Angles business, and how he'd finally reached a breaking point (he was going to terminate his business empire there and move out-of-state).

The trouble here is that an economist can write down ten things and just measure them for a established index.  In this case of Corona.....there are various things which you can't measure.

You could be living in Alabama, and be a '3' on miserable feelings....yet be fifty-percent happier than the guy in California.  That's the sad part of about misery.  Even living in some housetrailer, with a job at a truck-stop, your mother-in-law living in the trailer with you, and your dog suffering from worms....yet you might have a a great prospective on life and way above that poor guy in Riverside, California. 

The 'Darkness' Around a Anti-Fascist

Over the past couple of weeks, I've sat and listened to the commentary and viewed the actions of the anti-fascist crowd.  Several things have stood out:

1.  To be a true antifascist, you have to control or limit your friends or associates.  You hang out....with other antifascists.  You sit in the same classes....get into discussion-groups with like-minded people...and most all of your life is tied to a mission or purpose (saving the world from fascism).

2.  To be a true antifascist, you get up...eat your cereal or pancakes, and set your mind on purpose of being....defending the world from fascists.  It doesn't matter if they are in NY City, Detroit, Minneapolis, Philly, or Denver.  You go where the action is.

3.  Everywhere you look....fascism is harming society.  It's harming cultures, youth, livelihoods, health, democracy, and only struggles against evil fascism can resolve things.

4.  The antifascists are like some club now....appearing like DC's Legions of Tomorrow show.  Their hyped-up courage gives purpose and the feeling of being invincible.

5.  There is a piece out of Eric Hoffer's True Believer book, which talks to the idea of a "total surrender of a distinct self"....where you need to fit yourself into a group, crowd, or tribal organization.  This fits into the mass movement concept and you present the unified image of being against something (even if you marginally can say what that something is).

The world is unproductive and miserable, but by presenting the anti-fascist agenda....you can save it. 

6.  This antifascist is forever unsure of himself or herself.  They feel unaccomplished and apprehensive.  Today will end with participation in such-and-such effort or looting measure, with each member of the group trying to hype up the others that more work will be necessary for tomorrow.

7.  Finally, as time passes and reflection starts to set in....intolerance starts to be a daily topic on the mind of the antifascist.  Others in the group will suggest to be guarded against propaganda that would de-value the mind or effort.  Yet you look back at the childcare center you burned down with the group a month ago, or some coffee shop that you looted and destroyed....realizing later that owner just collected the insurance money and left town (the structure sits empty now).  You keep being told...don't worry, they all have insurance.  But you realize two months down the line that this section of town you destroyed....won't come back and rebuild. 

Intolerance starts to burn a hole in your soul. 

Then one day, you lose your enthusiasm for this antifascist business.  Saving mankind just doesn't seem to be something you'd like to participate in.  Some elements of shame show up....that you did some stupid things without thinking about the outcome. 

At this point, the darkness goes away. 

Just Observations

1.  I was sitting there this morning and observing street video (Seattle, NY, Portland, etc), and then it just kinda hit me.....it just seems a lot of this is 'copy' of Dark Knight Rises (the last Batman movie, with Bane as the enemy).  The violence....the lack of any respect....the public waiting on someone to come and clear the streets.

2.  Someone put up pictures of Minneapolis in the last day of two of the damaged/looted structures, and comparing it to some degree to the destruction around Bosnia after their little civil war.  A lot of Bosnians would agree that recovery didn't really start to show for an entire decade after the war ended.  One might suspect the same thing in Minneapolis.

3. I sat and read through a piece on LA's City Council approving (at least in draft form) the division of 'labor' for the police in the future.  So, for any situation that seems to be of a non-violent nature....a 'community responder' (social worker type) will arrive and handle the situation.

If it appears violent (one assume that the 9-1-1 operator will be the person making the guess)....then the police get the 'nod'.

The odds of a 50-percent of non-violent situations reaching a stage where violence is invoked?  That's a curious scenario to wonder about.  One has to assume that some type of uniform will handed out to the 'community responder' and some type of emblem or badge will be part of the deal.  This being a call involving a doped-up guy and 'community responder' suddenly dealing with violence in trying to handle the guy?

Just my view, but twelve months into this 'community responder' experiment, I think that half the folks will have resigned or moved on....indicating that this isn't the type of work that they imagined.  After two or three years of this....the council will admit that it was a successful-failure, and dump it.

4.  After this shooting a couple of days ago in Seattle of the two black teens in the Jeep (one dead, one seriously wounded)...there's 3 odd things that stand out.

- The Chop 'police' (not the Seattle police) say that there are reports of the teens shooting at Chop 'village' from the Jeep.  Then they suggest that the two teens robbed people while holding a knife.  You'd think about this, then ask....if they had a gun and were shooting....why bother with the knife?

- Then after the event, via PR going out via social media....they proclaimed the event a great positive situation against fascism.  Yes, the two black teenagers were apparently fascists. From the one teen still alive....if you asked about being a fascist....he'd start off the conversation and ask what the hell is a fascist?

- While all of this goes on, with one dead black teen....BLM at the site does nothing.  You'd expect them as a minimum to burn down the Chop area, but they stand there in the background....like a landscape to some painting.

5.  The judge in this George Floyd case with the four cops up for serious charges?  Well, this week, he's now said that he's leaning toward moving the case.

My humble guess is that next five most populated cities (with mayors and city councils attached) in the state are worried.  They don't want it either.  Any city that he selects....will probably try to use the court system and remove their city from consideration.

Odds of Minnesota National Guardsmen called out to protect this town (when chosen)?  I'd give a 99-percent chance.

6.  Another poll now says that of the 38-percent of Americans who believe that Joe Biden has dementia....they can now show via the polling on people with this opinion, almost one out of five are Democrats.

That's a worrisome trend.  The one thing you don't need is three debates to occur with Trump and Biden, and another twenty-percent of Democrats agree....making this a screwed up campaign.

7.  Delta Airlines says that they will ask you....presumably at the check-in counter, about your Coronavirus status.  If you lie?  Well, this could get you on some permanent forbidden to fly Delta situation.  If you tell the truth but come up days later with the virus?  No one really says much how they will handle this.

It just makes you ponder upon any travel and settle upon driving to your destination.

8.  Netflix is making a six-part series about the youth years of Colin Kaepernick.  No, it won't go up to the NFL years.  It's hard to imagine the entertainment value, or just historical landscape.  One aspect they probably will skip....his real 'talent' throughout high school was baseball (as a pitcher).  He was offered various scholarship deals to play baseball.

The only college to offer a football scholarship?  University of Nevada-Reno.  A football powerhouse?  No.  You can't even rank them in the top one-hundred college teams over the past twenty years.  With maybe one or two exceptions, the bulk of their schedule are similar teams.

Did he screw up by selecting football over baseball?  Yes, there's no doubt.  He'd probably still be in MLB today, approaching age 33, and on a $15-million a year contract with some team as a number one or two starting pitcher.

9. Yesterday, Joe Biden did a decent press conference.  So at some point, he says that he is “constantly tested” for cognitive decline.

Constantly?  He didn't go into detail, but it just makes you wonder....are they now testing him once or twice a month?  Why word this in such a way?  Or did he mean constant testing with Covid-19?

It was at the very least....a stupid comment to make.  But again, he's Joe Biden and throughout his entire career....he's averaged probably a thousand stupid comments a year, and you just have to bear with Joe's way of explaining things.

10.  It doesn't make any sense.  Riot 'kids' (juveniles) go and make videos of their rampage, and flip it as a show of their fake-courage.  So the authorities get the stupid video off social media....review it....and get images to post on some 'wanted poster'.

'Randy' and 'Molly' get this gaggle of police at their doorstep a month later....they want to speak to 'Junior'.  They got an arrest warrant.

The lawyer gets a call, and he looks at everything and then asks the parents....is your kid that stupid to make a video of himself damaging a building or looting, and think that the police aren't going to view the same video?  Its incredible stupidity.