Thursday 28 December 2017

Alabama Governor Topic

I tend to follow Alabama news a fair bit.

Today, it was noted via Al.com that things are lining up for the 2018 Governor's election.

The GOP folks?

1.  Kay Ivey (present governor of the state).  On the positive side, Kay hasn't screwed up since taking over. Kay doesn't have some boy-toy or part-time lover on the side.  And Kay seems to avoid any kind of controversy.  On the negative side, Kay is 73 years old.

2.  Tommy Battle (Huntsville mayor).  On the plus side, Battle has been a business guy for most of his life, and if you wrote down his entire resume....it'd be at least five pages (he's 62 years old).  If you were looking for soap opera lifestyles.....he's about as boring as you can get.  The other plus of Battle is that he's gone and created more than 10,000 jobs in the last decade of being mayor in Huntsville.  In some ways, he is a mini-Trump-like character.  The title that he likes to point out?  He's won a few bar-b-q awards and apparently knows how to grill pork and beef.

3.  Birmingham evangelist Scott Dawson.  He's a mega-church kind of minister....a four-star public speaker....and likely will carry a fair number of the church-votes in the state.  Beyond that?  No real experience.  We've never had a minister as a governor, so it might be a shock to most folks if he were to win the election.

4.  Bill Hightower (state senator, Mobile).  He's a businessman turned state senator.  For four years, he's been around Montgomery and shaken a few hands.  In the Mobile area....probably half the folks have heard of the guy and would recognize him.  Beyond Mobile?  He's unrecognizable.

5.  Josh Jones.  He's a health-care executive out of Birmingham and likely the most unknown individual of the five.  Past political background?  Zero.

For the Democrats?

1.  Sue Bell Cobb. Former state Supreme Court Chief Justice.  She is a graduate of the University of Alabama, and has done a fair amount of legal work.  Age?  Near 60.  The problem in her case is name recognition.  You can ask a hundred Alabama folks about the name, and maybe three would have remembered her being on the state Supreme Court.

2.  Walt Maddox, current Tuscaloosa Mayor.  He's 45 years old....mostly done work with the education sector, and been a political figure for about a decade.  On the positive side....with the 2011 tornado episode that tore up the city, he's known for crisis management skills and is one of the folks you'd want in an emergency situation.  His problem will be name recognition outside of the Tuscaloosa region.

3.  Jason Childs.  Trucker (Oxford).  Well, he's the one odd character of the whole bunch.  He admits right up front.....he is pro-marijuana, and pro-LGBT.  He even says up front....both parties have failed the working-class folks in the state, and we need to bring back a fresh view of the common man.  Name recognition?  Near zero.  The thing is....if someone just stood up with a web site and actively went to some campuses in the state..Childs could pick up 25,000 votes and interest a fair number of people. But that probably won't happen.  To be honest as well....we've never had a trucker as a governor and that might be worth exploring.

4.  Anthony White.  Local black minister from Dothan.  He's a local guy....former Army....been a small business owner, and got a degree in business.  His issue will be name recognition.

5.  James Fields.  He's a black Methodist minister from Cullman.  He's actually pushing this idea of a rapid-rail system in the state....connecting cities.  Course, if you asked a hundred Alabama folks about something like this....they'd tend to rate this at the bottom of 10,000 things that you could do for the state.  His problem will be name recognition.

Is that it?  There might be two or three more jumping in by March, but I suspect this is the main group.

The odds here?  I suspect that Kay Ivey will have a problem in the primary and Battle might actually be this Alabama-style Trump-figure, who gets the primary win.  A second vote required?  Well, here's the thing, this Dawson-character will be popular with church-voters and he might actually take 15-percent of the state vote....meaning that Ivey and Battle don't reach the 50-percent required in the first primary.

For the Democrats.....the Tuscaloosa mayor Maddox ought to win in the first primary.  Childs is a wild-card because of his marijuana stance, and if this election was about making it legal....he might find 50-percent of the 18-to-50 year old voters in the state favoring him.  It'd be a shocker if suddenly this whole election was about making marijuana legal in the state.

The likely winner?  I think Battle wins in November.

Who Do You Call

Back in the late 1970s....I started traveling.  I was fortunate that the Air Force gave me that chance, and I've traveled through dozens of countries and admired lots of different cultures. I've observed TV, comedy series, food, beverages, hostility, and lots of aspects that you typically don't think about.

My brother brought this up yesterday....over something involving Asian folks.  I sat and pondered over cultures and reactions to chaotic events.  You can't say precisely in every single case....how various cultures will react, but there's this trend-line....you tend to know alot about chaos, and human reaction.

So you throw up some situation....a barn on fire....a broken water-pump....a flight to be cancelled where you need a plan 'B'....or some bear that has walked into the middle of your backyard.  You then mix the various cultures.

1.  The German.  This culture wants to study the problem for a fair amount of time.....making a plan which likely revolves around six options or resolutions.  All might work, but the time to reach that moment is generally more you'd like to imagine. 

2.  The Italian.  The Italian will go from zero to sixty in ten seconds flat in terms of emotion, and might possibly do more damage than the current situation is creating.  Some emotion will be driven into the problem, and you can't be sure about the final outcome. 

3.  The Greek.  Well....does it really have to be resolved or fixed today....will be the first question.  How important is it to be fixed....will be the second question.  This will be like a question and answer session with Socrates (former blacksmith in his early years).  At least an hour will be used to center on the relative significance of the problem.  In the case of the bear event....you'd hope that both of you are inside of the house at the time.

4.  The Japanese.  An immediate question or two will pop up first....how did this all occur?   They'd like to know the cause and only work toward resolving that one single problem.  Emotion will be throttled back....maybe to 20-percent of what the Italian guy was displaying.

5.  The Icelandic culture.  At least five minutes will be devoted to watching the chaos develop because they've never seen something like this....EVER.  Then about forty minutes will be devoted to talking about nature, and this chaos is part of the bigger picture in life.

6.  The Brit.  Some quick reactionary plan will be put into immediate action, and it'll be something of a creative nature that you could never repeat in a thousand years.  Even after the event, no one will be able to describe why he took fourteen different steps, how each step fits into a precision solution, and how they stopped the barn fire, or removed the bear from the backyard.

7.  The Chinese culture.  There will be a period of review....perhaps a few minutes, then a plan will be established, and a solution put forward.  There's a fifty percent chance that the solution plan is more dangerous than the current event....that they might make the problem worse than it already is.....or that some fight might break out among the handful of Chinese folks over comments uttered or insults thrown at bystanders. 

8.  The Irish culture.  They will mostly stand and talk a good bit about the problem....suggesting a pint of some ale as part of the process, and then talk over the woes of the problem in detail.  Their son, their daughter, or their relatives....will have seen the problem and it's a matter of talking this over and repeating the process.

9.  The French culture.  They will suggest that there is a special office or agency to handle this, and it's best to leave it to the government to fix the problem.

10.  Finally, the Russian. In one sweeping motion, with almost no plan, or words.....the Russian ends the problem in seconds.  They kill the bear....put out the fire....or arrange for a plan 'B' after the cancelled flight. Then, there's vodka to be poured, and long discussion over everything except the chaotic event.  By morning, most of what happened is forgotten. Then they proceed on.....remembering nothing and rarely writing down the solution for future generations. 

Monday 25 December 2017

The Santa Story

I noticed this piece early this morning (25th)....that a Canadian government organization is saying that global warming has triggered Santa Claus to "pack-up" and move....taking his toy-making operation, the deer barn, and the Santa house....down to the South Pole. 

This organization?  The Policy Horizons Canada. 

Part of the story going with this....that the 'international community' (apparently not the US)....were in agreement and there was some written document where Santa, and the global warming community signed this document.

Now....I sat and pondered upon this amusing story.

A smart 8-year old kid would have eventually got to this point and asked....so, Santa just lived on top of ice...not land, all this time?  Where did these reindeer eat grass?  Did Santa have to ship in grain and hay for the reindeer.....aboard aircraft, and thus trigger climate change himself? 

This toy-making operation, with the thousands of elves....did they require constant heat, and thereby create climate change as well....with coal or oil heat?

If things are heating up at the North Pole....wouldn't the same heating-up or climate change exist at the South Pole?

Will the letters written and addressed to the North Pole.....get now to the South Pole?  What if some kids don't get the message, will their letters just end up with some dead-end post office in the North Pole?  Will Larry (the kind-hearted mail guy from the Canadian government who delivered mail to Santa for 40 years) still have a job? 

Were the elves forced into this move?  Or did the elves just accept this as being the only solution? 

Can reindeer survive at the South Pole?  Are there any there (no)? 

What did Ms Santa say about all of this? 

It simply begs questions.  One has to hope that CNN will get to the bottom of this story.

Thursday 14 December 2017

NPR 2.0 (My Version of a Reboot)

I can go back to the mid-1970s and remember the original content of NPR.  You actually got classic music, some jazz, literature readings, poetry, and some occasional bluegrass music. Then, in the early 80s....they started off to some other trend.  For me, if I were driving around at lunch....I might turn NPR on and listen to it, but they've lost me for the most part.

What I'd like to see?

6:00 A full hour of legislative matters in the House and Senate.  Explain what bills are coming up and what bills failed. 

7:00 Farm news hour.  Anything of a rural nature, relating to farms and rural business situations.  Bring in some PhD guys to talk about livestock, and crops.  Bring in a brewery guy to talk about garage beer creations.  Interview some bio-fruit people.

8:00 Medical hour.  Hire up four medical experts and have a morning round-table to discuss reports, health issues, and new innovations.  Bring on a nurse to talk about weird school health issues.  Talk about cancers and treatments. 

9:00 Jazz for an entire hour.

10:00 Great literature readings from the 1700/1800 era.

11:00 Business hour.  Have another round-table of four Wall Street guys to talk about what's hot in the news.

12:00 National news hour.

13:00 Classical music hour.

14:00 History hour (have four PhD history guys line up and tell some story over history).

15:00 Opera music hour.

16:00 Bluegrass Hour.

17:00 National news hour.

18:00 Four random folks interviewed hour.  Just go and pick out four random people (barbers, truckers, diesel mechanics, NCAA football refs, zoo-keepers, muffler-guys, etc) and ask them random questions.

19:00 1920s/1930s Radio Mystery hour.

20:00 More bluegrass.

21:00 Great literature readings from the 1900s.

22:00 Science Fiction Readings

23:00 Sign off

Wednesday 13 December 2017

The Tick Story

It came out recently in the world of paleontology, that they've got a bit of amber, which has a 99-million year old tick....holdingonto a feather of a dinosaur.

So there is some minor belief that you might be able blood locked into the tick, and you might be able to do some fancy work with DNA.....thus bringing back dinosaurs.  Well....an awful lot of fancy work.

One can sit and fantasize about this idea.

Would you even want to go and recreate this situation?  Is it dangerous?  Would some idiots go and try to sell these to the general public?  Would the UN go and try to forbid something like this?  There are a thousand things to ponder over an idea like this.

I would speculate that if they produced just one of these....it'd crank up an entire industry, and you'd have forty different DNA projects going on within a decade to reproduce various creatures.  I just don't see this being positive.

Tuesday 12 December 2017

The Ball Plan

It's one of those sports stories that you have to laugh about.  A few weeks ago....three NCAA basketball players from the west coast....went to China for some games.  They shop-lifted while there, and got arrested.  They couldn't leave China until President Trump got involved.  Then when they did get back to the college.....well....they were kinda suspended.  The college doesn't appear to have any desire to give them much of a second chance.

One of the players....LiAngelo Ball (son of LaVar Ball)....finally added up the problems and left college (UCLA). 

Dad sat there reviewing everything....knocking Trump several times for commentary that the kid should appreciate what Trump did. 

Today, the Ball family announced what LiAngelo would do next.  It's an odd deal.  The other son....LaMelo (in high school) announced that he was quitting high school (odd decision too).  Both kids are now signed up with a semi-pro league in....Lithuania.  The team  Prienai, Lithuania.

Prienai?  Well....yeah, it's a town of roughly 9,800 residents.

The team?  BC Prienai.  They've been around for about twenty years, and play in the Baltic League.  Their arena?  Prienai Arena.  It was built around six years ago, and holds 1,500 fans.

What this whole Ball-family move to Prienai adds up to?

Most basketball teams in Europe over the past decade have really grown their game, and they really don't care to be baby-sitters.  You got a drug problem, an alcohol problem or attitude problem?  Fine, go home....we don't need you.  I would compare about one-third of the clubs in Europe today as being almost at the level of the better NCAA teams.  In another decade, I expect the majority of clubs (maybe 75-percent) to be as good as the average NCAA team. 

The Ball boys?  There's some advantages to being in a small town like Prienai.  No stress.  No major journalists following them.  A chance to work out daily.  As for making a name for themselves?  Maybe.  But if neither kid expands their game or does much to attract more attention by the end of 2018....then their careers are finished.  They might stay around three or four years and be back-up players in the NBA eventually, but the chance to be starters in the NBA will diminish by the end of 2018 if they don't show improvement. 

I'm not going to suggest 'dad' is stupid here, but the odds of all three Ball kids making it into the NBA are statistically very low.  There's obviously no plan 'B', and I feel sorry for both of these kids thrown into the middle of Lithuania and trying figure into some plan without good odds. 

A Suggestion of Patterns

I sat and looked over this graphic today.  It does make sit and ponder 'patterns'.  

Saturday 9 December 2017

That New Mexico Shooting

“Work sucks, school sucks, life sucks, I just want out of this s--t.”

-- William Atchison

This week....the twenty-one year old William Atchison wandered into his old high school....Aztec HS, New Mexico, and shot two students before killing himself in the bathroom of the building.

From all reporting done, it doesn't appear that he knew either kid that he shot.  They were just random picks.

News analysts spent a fair amount of time on the shooting, but the truth of the matter is that it was at best a eight-line story.  He had a legal weapon, and he had no real police record.  Nut-case?  No one suggests that...he probably was maxing out on depression at a ten, but that won't get mentioned much.

Classified as a mass shooting?  No....by FBI standards, you need four folks dead, and in this case...while he did shoot himself as well in the end, that only adds up to three folks.

I have this theory that a fair number of shooters are nut-cases....maybe in the forty-percent range.  Some are people who are drugged up and unable to account for their actions, and then there's this last group who are plain tired of life (suicidal). 

In the old days, you'd reach some desperation stage and just go off to handle the suicide by yourself....not involving other people.  There is some trend going on where people think that they need others involved for some odd reason.  Maybe it's the thought that people should have helped you or that some folks prevented you from reaching success in life. 

Making a law to halt this behavior?  Go for it.  People in this stage of thinking don't readily react to laws.

Wednesday 6 December 2017

The UN Dude

Once in a while, I'll notice a Alabama story which draws me to ponder.

So it came out in the news today....that some UN (United Nations) dude is planning a trip to Alabama this week to investigate.....poverty, inequality and "barriers to political participation". 

I looked at the item....roughly 12 lines.

This guy....Philip Alston....says he will visit a couple of places (Puerto Rico, West Virginia, and California are mentioned) on this 'road-trip'.

Where he intends to stop in Alabama?  Lowndes County....down in the south central region of the state.

Based on comments, he's got some folks lining up his schedule and prepared to hype up their poor situation in life, while living in Alabama.

How exactly he will help to change the poverty and inequality?  Well....that's the thing.  He's basically a nobody.  He'll write some report which will bring tears to your eyes, but he's basically going out to stay in some nice Holiday Inn situations....eat some high quality food....travel business-class....and spend a fair amount of travel funds.

You can imagine these folks trying to line him up and their hype?  Well....we are so poor, and bad-off.  He will have sit there for hours while these folks hype up their negative status in life.  When he asks about the barrier to their political situation...he'll do his best to ask how evil the Republicans are in the state and is there any way we can get more folks signed up to vote....because the more that vote....the more likely they would go and fix all the problems that exist in the world. 

It would be interesting if some Alabama folks would take him over for a catfish dinner, some Friday night football, a sip of whiskey, and offer up some advice on car mechanics....but that just won't happen.

Taxes

It's one of those statistics that news folks tend to skip.....roughly 45-percent of Americans don't pay anything on federal taxes.  It adds up to around 77-million households. 

They might have made enough in some cases to require the form submission, but when you add up credits....they zero out.

Oddly, I can go back all the way to 1978 and remember submitting my tax form in the spring of that period for five months of pay with the Air Force....feeling silly to waste time on filling out the form and to admit a total pay situation of roughly $5,000.  That was the only time in my life where I paid nothing.  I looked at the refund check as simply a 'gift'. 

I sat there in 1979....a year later, and figured I'd just repeat the whole episode, and that $400 of pre-paid tax-money would ALL come back to me.  I was wrong....I still ended up paying roughly $180 that year in taxes. It was an amazingly low amount of money but it just made no sense.

Are these 77-million households avoiding all taxes?  No.  They still meet up with property, car and sales taxes.  For a lot of them, they are still throwing a thousand dollars a year toward their state government in various ways.

If you think about this....no one in America is truly living a tax-free lifestyle.  Either through the federal folks, the state folks, or sales-taxes...you are paying into some pot.  It's virtually impossible to skip out entirely. 

Saturday 2 December 2017

Witch-Trials and Their Significance

My brother brought up the topic of 'Salem Witch Trials' today, and how most folks have no memory or a marginal amount of knowledge over them....when comparing it to the Moore episode in Alabama.

For the twelve years of school that I attended in Alabama....I think the total number of times that the 'Trials' were mentioned were probably twice.  If you gleaned the history books used....it usually amounted to eight to twelve lines.  The attempt by the teacher to explain this?  It would have come across to the group as nuclear science.

After the high school years....I went off and had the luxury of the University of Maryland, Louisiana Tech University, and Pierce Community College.  The topic of the Salem Witch Trials likely came up on one solid occasion and the lecture guy actually did spend thirty minutes laying out the basic story.  It was better than nuclear science explanations....but really didn't do justice to the story.

So a decade or so later.....I picked up two or three books and read through the entire episode and branched out....because it's more broad than folks think.

You can go back all the way to 451 BC and find locals in Greece who were open to the idea of blaming crop failures on bad spirits and pretender-witches.

You can go to 186 BC in Rome and find regulations already existing on how to handle witches.

After Christianity was introduced throughout the Roman Empire, the idea spread.  At some point around the 1100s, in Hungary....the King actually wrote out a regulation to halt witch-hunts because he just plain admitted....witches don't exist.  Folks didn't easily buy off on that.

In the mid-1200's, the Pope tried to stop all this business....also saying....witches don't exist.  That wasn't easily grasped by the general public.  Around two hundred years later, another Pope stood up and said yes.....we need witch trials because they exist.

In the 1500s and 1600s, throughout Europe, the trials took off and were a fairly regular thing.  I live around 15 miles from an area (Idstein) where the trials were regularly held in the fall, and some folks had to be killed to make folks happy.  In that town, they tended to kill women,  about eight to one over men.  No one could ever explain why women were often the chosen folks for these episodes.

In the Salem witch episode?  Around February of 1692, some accusations started the locals off on a mission with purpose.  You can safely say that this was...even before the accusations....a fractured town, with people trying to get into each other's business.

In the year prior, that had been some heated church-talk in the region by Cotton Mather (a Billy Graham-like character who could preach for hours and hours) on potential witchcraft, and this got people all hyped up.

So, two kids (nine and eleven) made the act of this....going into violent fits.  I think this was mostly to entertain folks but these locals actually took this serious.  This drew out some minister, who viewed the two girls, and he claimed that they were under the influence of the devil.  A couple of other young ladies then acted out the same way.

All of this led to three folks being detained and blamed for witchcraft.  There's no logic or sense to this.....just that locals needed to bring this quickly to a closure.

A month later, a couple of other young ladies were dragged in and were identified for witch business.

By early summer, court action was now underway and a prosecutor of sorts had to determine the intent of the devil here.

By mid-August, five folks were executed.

In September, around 18 other folks were dragged in and accused.  One of them was a guy who they asked him to plea and make an admission....while they put heavy rocks on his chest.  He eventually died from the weights on his chest.

By January of 1693, things were on a roll....more convictions.  Then, the Governor got involved and started to pardon folks.  In a way, he knew they were all unfocused and unable to grasp what was going on.

By early summer of 1693, the last court episode occurred, and everyone got 'sane'.

What you can typically say is that the witch trials were all based on some fake evidence, which got the general public all churned up and hyper.  The public at that point....could not grasp the landscape or understand the actual laws.  They just wanted a no-witch atmosphere, and were willing to kill to reach that point.

You would think that this would be a five-day detailed review in high school, with things laid out in detail.  Yet, no history teacher really wants to spend any time covering the topic.

Understanding the Flynn Situation

So, when some FBI idiot comes up and requires a statement out of you in the process of an interview, and then has a paper for you to sign at the end (attached to the tape of the interview)....you either don't answer particular questions, or admit all.  The third choice of lying?  That's precisely what Flynn got into trouble about.  If he had declined to answer their question on the contact with a Russian government official (not a lobbyist or plain-vanilla citizen of Russia), he would still be in some minor trouble.  But in this case....he just plain lied.

What else?  Nothing.

If you remember....there is some type of relationship between Flynn and Turkey's Erdogan.  There is a suggestion led by the press that Erdogan asked Flynn to possibly arrange for the kidnapping of Gulan (the arch-nemesis of Erdogan).....residing in the US.  This story has not been proven.  If true, Flynn....if he had taken steps to plan the kidnapping....would be in bigger trouble.  I doubt that the FBI has any evidence of this, and it was all just plain chatter.

Anything leading to trouble of Trump?  No....that's the amusing thing.  I realize 10,000 journalists and political folks are all hyped up, but there is virtually nothing illegal in folks talking to foreign citizens, Saudis, Russians, etc.  If promises were made, prior to the election....maybe this might be viewed in some illegal fashion.  But then selling uranium off to Russians, after their donations to the Clinton Fund occurred....would be awful high up on the list of stupid and illegal things. 

Friday 1 December 2017

The Matt Lauer-New Zealand Problem

There's an odd story following the firing of Matt Lauer of the Today Show (for sexual harassment).

Somewhere early in 2017....a property came up for sale in New Zealand (south isle).  It's a 26,000 acre sheep-ranch....referred to as 'Hunter Valley'. 

If you go and pull up the map....along the western side of the south isle, are a ton of mountains and in the middle of this range is this lake (Lake Hawea).  Highway 6 runs along the western end of the lake, and this ranch basically sits on the whole (emphasize WHOLE) western end of the lake.  The dirt road out from Highway 6 to the actual ranch house?  It's at least five miles....maybe even going on seven miles.

Based on the newspaper accounts, it'd been run for years by a New Zealand couple and they put it up for sale, and Lauer bought it in March....for around 10-million USD (more or less).

Locals came immediately upon the sale and had negativity.  First, it was another foreigner (something that gets discussed alot by New Zealand folks these days).  Then came this issue of access.  The old owners had allowed some limited access.....mostly for bike races and special events. But for the most part, the dirt road was not a public road.  They wanted Lauer to agree on full open access, and that wasn't forthcoming.  The dirt road ownership?  Well.....it's a private road....not a state road.

As for civilization?  Well, that's another funny part of this story.  Where this ranch house and property exists....there's nothing else there.  Here's the lake on one side and a snow-capped mountain on the other side, and tons of sheep.  If you wanted zero stress, limited contact with humans, and solitude?  Well....this is the place..

Looking for a gas station?  The nearest one to the gate of the property....is twelve miles away.  Looking for a grocery? You can figure roughly a 45-minute drive from the house to a real grocery (not a general store).  The local 'city'?  Wanaka.  If you'd gone there thirty years ago, it was purely ranch property, cafe or two, maybe two or three stores, and a few houses.  Today, it's near 6,500 residents....with a number of hotels and lodges.  Yeah, a lot of tourists come through and stay for a couple of days because of the scenic lakefront and glaciers off in the distance.

What was Lauer's intention here?  Unknown.  Maybe he was going to retire there.  Maybe he would have opened up a lodge of his own.

The problem now?  Well....to get residency and thus full ownership....you need to pass a character-test.  Yeah, those sneaky New Zealand folks decided that with the foreigners coming in....someone needs to check people out.  Well....Lauer was fired for sexual harassment.  Apparently, the audit crew in New Zealand thinks this needs to be reviewed.  The odds of a purchase being halted?  At this point, it's an unknown.  The fear factor here is that Lauer might end up losing his the purchase deal  and be refused residency.

An odd problem?  Well, one might get the idea that he had some retirement plan in his mind for three or four years in the future, and the sheep ranch thing with almost no civilization around?  Well...yeah, it's just an odd idea.