Saturday, 25 August 2018

How Fishing and Impeachment Relate

I worked with a guy two decades ago who went back to the US on a vacation with his wife, to visit her relatives for a full two weeks.  Upon returning to base, we got into a light discussion, and he described the woeful experience of fishing with his father-in-law.  I should note that he'd never fished in his life.

This all-day fishing expedition had been discussed for three or four days in advance....hyped up to the maximum.  They would arise at near 4:00....have a full-up breakfast, and be on the road by 5 AM.  The boat would launch near 6 AM. 

My associate went through the pre-plan, the loading of gear, and the various items which had to be fully prepared and placed upon the boat.  This was one of those mid-range river fishing boats, with the bells and whistles. 

Mid-summer, the heat reached near 95-degrees by noon.  It was hot, humid and miserable. 

The chatter on the boat went on and on....about past fishing with such-and-such lures....the best bait....personal habits of trout versus catfish, and long discussions about such-and-such friend who'd fallen into misfortune with his wife or girlfriend.

Around mid-afternoon, they returned to the dock....loaded the truck back up, and proceed home.  Their entire take for the day were three measly fish.

It was referred to as a trip with high expectations, and in the really wasn't worth discussing. I asked if he'd ever return for a second fishing trip, and the answer was an absolute 'no'.

In a way, this chatter and hyped-up sense about impeachment runs the same route.  When you reach some stage where you think it might go into second-gear, I think reality will set in when people realize that there just won't be enough Senators to carry this 'limp fish expedition' to the dock. 

Some folks will stand there and did they ever go and get so convinced of something of a marginal or non-existent quality.....then gaze back over to the journalists and realize that they were a bit fraudulent. 

The ability of the news media to carry this any further in a negative way?  No.  At that point, the chatter basically ends, and everyone has a good laugh over the bias nature of things. 

Nine Weeks Until The Election

My ten observations:

1.  There is NO blue wave coming.  At best, I would suggest that three GOP House seats and one Senate seat are taken by the Democrats.  But I would go and suggest at least one Democratic House seat to be taken, and maybe five Democratic Senate seats to be taken by the Republicans.

2.  McCain will pass from this Earth within the next four weeks.  The AZ governor, I suspect, will select himself to be the replacement.  I know some folks are thinking McCain's wife will be picked, but I just don't see that happening.

3. I think the two big shocks will be: Missouri's McCaskill and Michigan's Stabenow.  Both will be edged out. No one would have predicted that two years ago.

4.   CNN and MSNBC will be sitting there on 7 November, and trying to explain how the GOP won the seats (potentially in the Senate, there might be ten Democratic seats won).

5.  A Democratic meeting will be held in the month after the election, and the realization that they've expended a tremendous amount of 'talk' and gotten nowhere.

6.  Black votes will matter in this election, and a shift of 25-percent of the votes will go to the GOP.  In some states, it won't matter.  In states like Missouri and'll matter.

7.  If the Republicans are in the 60-range of Senate seats in January, you can anticipate a long list of things to be laid out for goals in 2019.

8.  Where are the Russians?  Where is the meddling?

9.  The 2020 effect?  It's a race in the Senate with most of the races being Republican-held seats.  The odds are heavily in favor of them holding those seats, and even competing heavily in seven-plus races where the Democrats hold the Senate seats.  Doug Jones in Alabama, is likely to face a real candidate, and he can't show much on accomplishments to retain the seat.

10.  The Democrats need a total rebuild, and I doubt if they have the bold leadership to accomplish that.