Saturday, 2 November 2019

Trump, Seabiscuit, and the Little Guy

One of my favorite movies of all time (there's probably twenty on that list, and it does include Harvey, Bridge Over River Kwai, and the Quiet Man) is this racing horse movie 'Seabiscuit' (2003).  It didn't make a lot of money, and the majority of people would quietly admit they've never watched it.

'Seabiscuit' is about this down and out horse-race enthusiast, this down-and-out trainer, this down-and-out jockey, and this stubborn, hardheaded, and temperamental horse (Seabiscuit).

In the darkest of times (1930s depression era), this story unfolds.

Here's the thing about this 99-percent of scenarios, this is a loser horse and carries way too much temper upon his shoulders.  He doesn't want folks standing in his way.  He doesn't care for calm nature.  He doubts humans as 'controllers'.  Everything about Seabiscuit would indicate that he's not destined for horse-racing.

Somehow, this trainer has found this kid who has similar issues.  Between this odd foursome, there is a destiny that has been constructed.  Seabiscuit basically can't lose, but only because he's got the rider, the trainer, and the owner who believe in the temperamental horse.

Trump's political life is more or less like Seabiscuit.  Trump is temperamental, hardheaded, and stubborn.  Without the public behind him (in the role of the owner, trainer and jockey)....he wouldn't have amounted to much of anything.  So these things came together.

Then you have this thing about racetracks.  If you've never been to a racetrack, there is this unusual charm about it.  When you arrive and there's some legend on the track for one of the races.....people are pumped up.  They want to see the horse run, and they want some charisma that most horses just can't give.  They want to see a horse come from behind, and nudge the other horses to the side.  They want something that you typically don't see much of.

This Trump era....whether you like or dislike him, is a sort of political tale revolving around the Seabiscuit twists and turns.  There's certainly people there who are betting on the 'horse' to lose, and they'd like to get impossible odds.  But the Seabiscuit-crowd are hyped-up and just thrilled to be at the track and to see one great horse gave a once-in-a-lifetime show.

It's the little guy, who wants to see this 'race' occur, and they've bought into the entire show.

Beto Never Got to Even 10-Percent

I will make three observations about Robert Francis O'Rourke (Beto):

1.  This guy went from the El Paso city council job in the House of Representatives job in 2013, and felt he was ready for the big time in 2018 as a US Senator (failed attempt), and in 2019....ready to be President (failed attempt).  Current age?  47.  I think he should have reserved his situation and ran for governor in Texas (2022) before he ever got the idea of running for Senator or President. 

2.  The anti-gun position?  Among southern was a no-win situation.  Even southern Democrats didn't like his position that much.  His base of voters....whether he ever realized it....were southerners. 

3.  You have to wonder....if he'd run in 2016's Presidential primary against Hillary and Bernie.....would he have have taken 30-percent of the primary vote, and made the Convention into a more interesting situation?

Why Millionaires Leaving NY City is a Big Deal

With President Trump's announcement (which I expect the city of NY to pounce on his tax movement scheme, and accuse him of still being attached to NY City) need to stand back, admire the landscape and wonder about the future in NY City. 

Because of various tax laws being pursued and the cost escalating....if you were fairly well off (say 10-plus million a year rolling in)....the taxation from NY state and the property tax in NY City....would eventually put you into Trump's mindset.

So let's say that in 2020....a hundred of these ultra-wealthy folks from NY City and maybe 1,000 of the semi-wealthy (those making $500k a year) realize the tax savings of Florida, or one of a dozen tax-friendly states, and leave.  Who replaces them, or moves into their expensive condos?  For a year or so, there might be some folks with desires to live in NY City, and they'd buy the Trump-houses or Trump-condos.  But you'd reach a stage where the super-wealthy are not longer interested.  They can easily fly in, and stay at some why establish a house or condo there?

Around three years down the pike, you'd have lesser wealthy people established in NY City, and the tax revenue 'boss' would come up and tell the governor that there is a problem now existing (they would be missing 300-million to 500-million dollars in revenue).

Naturally, they'd think it was temporary.  A year later....the amount would double.

Around by 2025, there would be some major meeting where the mayor and governor had a chat.  They would aggressively go after people who'd left, and accuse them of still having NY City connections.  The lawyers would smarten up and put the city on the defensive.  These cases would be harder to prove.

By 2030, you'd have NY City in a tough position....cutting firemen and police, to reach a smaller budget.  No one would want to admit defeat. 

By 2035, you'd have the state of NY, wanting to cut the city off, to make two separate states.  One would have a balanced budget, the other would be in serious debt. 

Whether they like it or not....NY has a serious problem brewing. 

The Problem with 'Quid Pro Quo' in an Impeachment

Once you've determined that 'quid pro quo' is a basically open the door for every future president to be second-guessed, and he be brought in for impeachment as well (you can probably find at least two dozen occasions that President Obama would be guilty of quid pro quo crimes, and maybe double-that for President Bush).

If you wanted an absolute mess on your hands.....go for it, and stand back to see the republic in a turbulent mess for the next twenty years.