Sunday, 8 July 2018

Hillary: 2020?

There's a piece in the NY Post which suggests that Hillary Clinton is getting ready for a 2020 Presidential run.  I's pretty crazy, but there are some elements to consider.

First, she still runs a super-PAC, and it's still active trying to get funding.

Second, in her messages to the public.....she never says it's over.

Third, I think she gets info handed down on the timing of the Mueller episode, and that the real court action against President Trump is timed for the fall of 2019.  In her mind, she could contemplate President Trump being in some weakened stage, and making the announcement in late fall of 2019....that he won't run.

Problems with this scenario:

1.  She's four years older, and less healthy.

2.  The low intensity campaign of 2008 and 2016?  Likely to repeat in 2020.

3.  There are at least three major players (two from California) that I see running in 2020's primary for the Democrats, and real competition is a no-go for Hillary.  She would need the DNC to tell them to step down.  In fact, she would need Bernie to swear that he won't run again.

So you add this scenario up.  Lot of Democrats are taking the red-pill or walking away from the party.  Lot of socialism talk by the far side of the party, which doesn't sell well.  A Trumpless campaign?

I would go and predict the lowest turn-out in sixty years (maybe even a hundred) if this turned into a Hillary race, with Trump out.  The fakeness of the GOP?  Troubles would increase and it'd just create a massive disconnect with the general public.

But, this all leads back to a Democratic Party without a strategy or vision.  And Hillary could easily lead the 'blind' party to an end-point.

The #Walkaway and Red-Pill Crowd Story

Five years ago, the Democratic Party had a scripted pattern, gifted journalists at their beckoned call, and fairly strong path to bring voters in to demonstrate power.

Today?  I'm not so sure.

There are two phonenomums at work.  There's the #walkaway group, and the red-pill group.

These are both former democrats who reached a level of frustration with the party theatrics and the strategy used at the national level.

So far, no one will state the numbers on the two groups.  If I were to guess on this, I would suggest that between two and four percent of the Democratic voters in 2016....have taken the red-pill or converted to the #walkaway group.  What that really means?  Somewhere between one million and 2.5 million voters are not going to help the Democrats in this fall election.

Now, you can absolutely make the case that in twenty-odd states, it's not going to matter.  It doesn't do much in states like Alabama or Tennessee.  In a state like Michigan, if you converted 80,000 Democrats over?  Yeah, it might matter.  In a state like California?  There might be four districts with a 20,000 shift, and that might be an issue for the Democratic candidates.

The problem I see is that you only see this beginning of the red-pill crowd, or the #walkaway group. What if the trend continues through 2018, and onto 2020?  What if you actually had five-million Democrats who weren't going to participate with the party anymore?

The bigger threat?  Well....I read a piece this week chatting over Latinos, blacks, and mid-20s youth were involved in the red-pill/#walkaway business.  What if 25-percent of Latinos and blacks were dumping the Democratic Party?

All of this brings me back to the national leadership, and wondering if they really know much about the general public.  All of this bitter anti-Trump agenda....what if it's dissolving the public trust in the Democratic Party?

Back in the 1990s, Time and Newsweek made some big coverage deal over a two-month period to suggest that the GOP was dying as a political party.  They worked hard to convince you of this episode, although it was mostly just fake-hype.  In this case?  With the internet existing....the red-pill and #walkaway group avoids the journalists and take their case direct to the American people.  In a way, they've become like Trump....using Twitter and Youtube to tell a story. 

It might be worth watching.