Thursday, 4 July 2019

Bill Weld

I was reading a piece over the GOP primary period, and Bill Weld came up in the news (he's the only one running against Trump in the primary).  Bill has at this point....if the news folks are right....about $700,000 for campaign purposes.  I'm guessing there might be another million somewhere in the mix.

What does that really buy Weld?

Basically, he can go and rent a reasonably new campaign bus, and tour Iowa....with a staff of maybe five to ten folks....for six weeks prior to the Caucus.  He can probably run two or three campaign radio pieces....just to let folks know he stands alone. Yes, that's it. 

He might be on the primary voting lists in five or six states, but beyond that....zero chance to get any notice. 

The Real Question over the Census Question

President Trump and his staff are mostly on an agenda that will require the Census team (2020) to ask a citizenship question, and give two different numbers to the public at the conclusion.  One number will be the total residents of a state, and one number will be only the citizens of the state.  Politically, it's charged up.

Some folks believe that the Supreme Court will effectively halt this and prevent it.  To be honest, I suspect that Judge Roberts will do his best to ensure that the question is not authorized, and that only by having one of the four liberal justices retire, and be replaced by a conservative judge....will the matter be put to rest. 

But there is this other question lingering out there.  If you can't ask this citizenship question....is there any real reason to conclude or even conduct the Census? 

I would suggest that the whole basis of the Census is some accurate count that would justify deleting districts in some states, and adding districts in other state....based strictly upon American citizens.  If the question can't be asked, there's no need to waste the money and we should just drop the whole necessity of having a House of Representatives, going to strictly to the Senate existing. 

It's a silly argument and likely to continue through the summer of 2020.  Curiously, the law basically says that the Census has to start in 2020....but it could be started in January....or in December, after the election.  Trump could make the whole basis of the Census one of his three main topics, and put the Justices into the spectrum of public attention. 

The five states most likely to be hurt by the question?  California, NY, New Jersey, Florida and Texas.  Some people suggest that California alone might lose three districts upon this review and the Census question.  Even Texas might lose two districts.  Course, both Florida and Texas might gain via people leaving NY and California as the great mass exodus is taking place. 

So how big a deal will this become?  I suspect as January of 2020 arrives....we will find that the bulk of Americans are concerned (one way or another) over the Census, and it might flip over into being a major problem.