My Interest In Economics

 At some point in the late 1990s....someone I worked with (in the vault business) had been working on a finance-related degree, and brought in a dozen tapes with Milton Friedman.  I agreed to take to take one of the tapes home for the weekend.

In the end, I had watched all of the dozen tapes they had, and over the next year....I probably consumed four books on pure economics.  

If you'd introduced me to Milton Friedman back in 1975 (in high school)?  I might have gone onto some university program....instead of the Air Force

A dull topic?  Oh yeah....but here's the thing....if you make economics into rocket science, it is absolutely crap and boring.  Friedman knew precisely how to relate various topics to the normal guy on the street....continually telling you that it simply wasn't rocket science.

I can sit today and read over agricultural reports, stock market analysis, futures, derivatives, failed banks, and understand the bulk of what is going on.  But here's the odd part of this 'path'....it's after college that I get into this topic, and it's all on a reading/viewing schedule of my own choosing.  Yeah, I've probably near 500 man-hours of my time into it....with no degree earned in the entire process.  

Yeah, just a hobby....more or less. 

One Aspect Of The Civil War Never Explained

 The American Civil War started on 12 April 1861....what would normally be planting season over the next month for cotton in the south.  Planting went as scheduled, and harvest (picking) came up in September/October.  

However, with the war in full swing....there were two brewing issues.

First, the primary customer for the cotton harvest were the knitting mills in the NE of the US.  With the war going on....no cotton moved to the customers there.  

Second, with naval blockades in place and freezing out the bulk of Europe cotton sales....cotton sat in ports for the most part.

As you might imagine....this left crap for the cotton commerce market, and the banks holding loans of the southern businessmen.  

The New England knitting mills (running with mostly women and children as employees)....for the most part....shut-down for 1861.

By the end of 1861, both Egypt and India realized that they had a massive market now open, and planting season for 1862 went into over-drive.  

By the end of 1862, England was importing around 90-percent of their cotton needs from India.  As you look at France, Netherlands, Spain, Italy and Germany....their market came mostly from Egypt.  

US farms trying to plant for spring 1862?  Yes, but there's simply no real cash flow, and banks are crapped out by this point.  So there's probably some cotton to be picked in the fall of 1862, but no consumers to buy their product.

The south, by spring of 1863....is economically dead.  Even when the war ends....9 April 1865....it'll be most of a decade when some cotton production starts to occur, and the limited market is mostly to the New England market.  Overseas market, a major part of their business plan?  It's dead....won't be coming back.

States like South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas and Louisiana?  It will be several decades before their economies start to go into a recovery path.

So here's the fascinating thing....by the end of 1861....you can zero out all value of plantations and slaves.  Just in one single year, Egypt and India have taken over the world market.  The slavery business?  It was totally finished....whether the war continued past 1862 or not.  

Why we never discuss this story?  Economics and agriculture are a bitter pill for teachers and historians to deal with and explain to 'kids'.