Sunday 30 August 2015

The Seven Things I Learned from Hurricane Katrina

Ten years ago, this past week, Hurricane Katrina came and passed through New Orleans.  I came to note seven observations over the past ten years of the event.

First, you could go and tell ten thousand people of a life-threatening situation coming to their edge of the world, advising them to leave now....and at least ten-percent will disregard your advice and stay.  Whatever advice or wisdom that you tried to offer them.....didn't matter.  You can offer up a brief prayer for these people and just say adios.  You don't need to be concerned about these people if they realize the impact of what you suggest.

Second, the news media is mostly there for the thrills and bogus human interest stories.  Nothing much has changed in the past decade.

Third, if the National Guard hadn't gotten it's act together quick and gotten to the Super Bowl to pull those people out.....several hundred folks would have perished on top of the chosen-to-go crowd.  Folks don't readily grasp that the National Guard activation comes up and it takes two or three days to get everyone at their post and get trucks to a designated point.  Still today, people don't realize that.

Fourth, about the last thing of value that you can get from a US President is some fly-over of a disaster area.  It doesn't solve anything or fix anything.  Send some general down and just order the guy to fix the problem and give him ten-thousand Marines.

Fifth, folks don't return unless there's something to return to.  Look up the population of New Orleans today....roughly 378,000 compared to 500,000 a decade ago.  Houston took up a fair number of folks, who've opted not to leave....they are happy in Texas and know the job market is better than in Louisiana.

Sixth, I learned that global warming and climate change didn't really bring a hundred more hurricanes after Katrina like all the experts for CNN and ABC/CBS/NBC predicted.  It was supposed to be an era of huge disaster episodes.  And it never came.

Finally, I learned that it's best to run your own disaster escape plan and not rely on the US government for much.

Tuesday 25 August 2015

A Big Door

I was reading through a piece in the Washington Post from the weekend, there's this opinion piece written by a PhD guy (Theodore R. Johnson).  He has surveyed the whole discussion of paying back the black community for reparations from the era prior to 1865, and think the only think that can be done logically....is to grant some type of vote-change that allow (at least for some period of time) a vote power of 5 to 3 for blacks.....meaning that each time a black guy voted....it'd count for five-thirds of a vote.

The logic here....for this entire period prior to 1865 is that black votes counted for three-fifths.  So, for some period of time (not mentioned in the commentary), this five-thirds vote would fix the unfairness that blacks have dealt.

This type of wisdom would draw two reactions.  Some people might agree in theory but doubt that it'd work.....too many folks would claim to be black when they weren't black.  And the second group would obviously say it's totally unfair and would be against the idea.

My issue would be that it would open up this big door and folks would start to talk about other reparation deals to solve a past problem.

Women would want a seven to two vote, for all those years that they weren't allowed to vote.

Indians would want a twelve to three vote, for all those years they were unfairly treated.

Ethnic Chinese would want a six to four vote, for all those years they were unfairly treated.

Mormons would want a nine to seven vote, for all those years they were unfairly treated.

Japanese-Americans would want a nine to six vote, for the period they were held in camps in WW II.

Irish people would want a six to five vote, for the period they were held back in economic conditions.

At some point, then you'd have members of the Washington Redskins football team who'd want a two to one vote for the unfairness of the NFL and life.

Then you'd have residents of New Orleans who'd demand a eight to one vote for the years of suffering after Katrina.

Then you'd have West Virginia and Oklahoma folks who'd demand a twenty to nineteen vote because they were always treated as second-class citizens.

This would go on and on, with everyone thinking of some unfairness and dreaming up a way to pay themselves back.  Life is unfair...period.  For over 100,000 years.....we can pretty much sum up the gains of human civilization as being unfair.  As for repairing unfairness?  It's a pretty big door and if you open it.....I'm not sure where fairness and unfairness would end up.

Thursday 20 August 2015

Cuba and Flights

The Wall Street Journal carried an item yesterday....over air travel being worked on by the Obama Administration and the possibility of air routes to Cuba established by the end of the year.

What's generally felt....is that some type of open door will occur and regular flights occur.  If you read between the lines....I'd take a humble guess that the week prior to Thanksgiving....it'll happen, and at least two airlines will offer a Miami to Havana or New York to Havana route on Thanksgiving weekend.

What develops by Christmas....at least by what I see is a dozen cities on the east coast offering at least a once-a-day flight into Havana, and Miami probably having a dozen flights a day.

Who goes to Cuba?  Well....in the beginning....a number of couples who just have this desire to be the first people on their block who've been to Havana.  It'll be a trip down to visit some resort built and run by some French or German folks...some casino experience....and beach episode.  Eventually, some folks will visit to utilize the Cuban cheap medical services.

By the end of 2016, I'll predict at least a hundred flights a day going into Havana.....with the news media describing how Havana became overrun by so many Americans and the charming Communist character of the city is forever lost.

Somewhere along the way.....missionary groups from various church groups will converge upon Cuba and a whole new angle on missionary work will emerge.  By 2020, Cuba will be in the middle stages of a society issue where half the island is enthusiastic about some religious conversion and the other half attached to the old Communist doctrine.

Wednesday 19 August 2015

The "Wall" Crowd

Generally, you can go and ask the build-the-wall crowd  and the anti-build-the-wall-crowd various questions over immigration, the 'Mexicans', legal terms and ethics.....but never get any real comforting answers.

So I'm a history guy, and I like how history relates lessons learned....some wise, and some pointless.

The Chinese started a wall operation in the period of 700 BC.  When it was finally done.....roughly five-hundred years would have passed.  Course, this wasn't a wire fence, or modern technology type situation.....it was brick and cement.  What the Chinese wanted....was a wall that stood the issues of time.  I should also mention that this was a 13,000 mile wall....way more than from you'd want from Texas to California.

Chinese historians will tell you....in a blunt way....the way achieved everything desired.  They will also note that it was a public project, and employed folks of the region....keeping them happy, occupied and fulfilled.  The foreign guys stayed out for the most part (they were failures of the wall), and some folks did climb over.....but without horses.....it was a bit difficult to march on and get somewhere.

The East Germans built two walls.  One was the border fence along the front between East and West Germany.  The other was the circling fence or wall that was put up in Berlin.  The evil West Berlin folks, with no inhibitions or control of desires were kept from the "people of perfection" in DDR (the Democratic folks who liked Communism).

If you go back 1,500 years across Germany itself today, you will find evidence of hundreds of walled cities and towns.  The walls were built to keep trouble-makers out, and protect folks during periods of incursion.  Generally, the walls worked unless the trouble-makers were creative and found ways to break the walls down.

Generally, if you build a wall....someone will come along and say they can conquer the wall.  People take pride in overcoming walls.  If you built a seventy-foot tall wall.....there'd be some guy to come along real quick and find five ways of getting over the top of that wall.  The guy might even write a book about the experience.

What I see from Trump-the-candidate....is that he might actually get elected and be part of the wall-crowd.  Then he'd arrive in DC to find that the Republicans really can't find any enthusiasm or willingness to put money into a wall.  The Democrats will just stand there.....gleefully smiling and not having to say anything because the fraudulent Republicans are doing all the work for them.

Trump would stand there for around six minutes....listening to the reasons why they won't fund it, and then say fine.....he'd just assign the US military to the task and just start yanking them back from South Korea, Europe and the Pacific.....to build the wall.  Republicans would go on TV and chat about how you need to build a wall, but only in the right way, at the right time, and with the right plan.  This would consume an entire weekend of political chat shows.

Generally, I don't think the wall would do an awful lot because folks would just seek out smarter ways.....maybe like digging a tunnel or just taking a rubber boat from Mexico to the Texas coastline (kinda like they do from Libya to Italy today).  The thing is....we've gone so long in this fake agenda business, that we really don't believe much of anything that's said now.....by either party.

Being against the Mexicans?  Well.....I'd be all for a wall built up along the Canadian border too....except I know that the Canadians don't really care much to illegally cross (there might be forty a year that do it illegally).  The eventual problem I see is that 300,000 Nigerians or Chinese guys might also get the idea that it's awful easy......sailing to Mexico, and then just hiking across.  Would we be just as happy to see them crossing the border as the Mexicans?  I have doubts.

So, maybe at the end of the 2016 election.....we might accidentally elect Trump as President and start on some wall.  We might even call up some Chinese guys or former East German engineers to ask how you build a good wall.

Tuesday 18 August 2015

Having Your Wits Around You

Having your wits around you.....wise words passed by a guy making an observation over the recent deaths in Spain with the bull running scheme.

Years ago (probably into the early 1980s), I had this fascination with the Spanish event held yearly....mostly in Pamplona but also in other cities across Spain.

The Running of the Bulls is a eight day event and it usually heats up just after lunch each day where six of the bulls are herded up into one area of a cobble-stoned street.....then turned loose on a number of guys who get to run down the street and hope they don't get trampled or gored.  At the end of this end, the bulls end up in the local stadium, where they will be used for the bull fights of the day.  One should note.....the complex of the entire day will be all six bulls being taken down, and sent off to some local butcher.

The history behind this?  Well, it's an odd piece of Spanish history.  Going back into the 1400s, Spanish cattlemen were kinda like the cowboys of the American west.  They were young and looking for some thrills.  So they'd eventually get to Pamplona where the bulls would be herded down the narrow streets to the local butcher area.  The Spanish cowboys got the idea to run the herd a bit faster and turn this into a show of sorts for the locals.....which meant a couple of guys were at the back to push the herd forward, and a couple of fast guys were in the front to show off their courage and charisma.  No one says much if guys got trampled or gored in those days.....my hunch would be they did but it wasn't recorded into history.

If you follow the bulls runs.....you'd note that this year has been a bit different.  Currently, if you count all bull runs in 2015.....there's been ten folks killed so far.  The Spanish media doesn't talk much over the wounded or severely injured.....just the death count.  Ten is considered awful high and getting a fair amount of discussion.

The chief cause of the ten deaths?  Well.....social media.

What folks say is that guys have shown up with smart-phones and they want to get into the run.....video-taping their situation as they run, and they aren't paying attention to the bull and the general escape path.  They are looking a good bit at the smart-phone screen and trying to get better pictures of the bull chasing them.  It's a multi-task situation which humans aren't capable of performing well.

A local mayor in the region analyzed everything, looking over the deaths, and then kinda noted in commentary to the reporter over the article.....you need to have your wits around you.  It's wise words....something that a farmer in Bama would say or some NCAA football coach would say in practice.

Two years ago, I noted that some California guys were discussing the idea of bull runs to be held there.  There was to be some animal cruelty folks who were going to use the court to hinder them and possibly stop this episode.  It's hard to imagine that it'd happen in the US.....too many lawyers would be involved and you'd have to charge folks a thousand dollars for the privilege of running with the bulls.  Then you'd have to do alcohol checks to ensure everyone was sober, and probably some mental test to ensure they weren't crazy (like those Spanish folks).  There'd probably be some age requirement, and a gun/knife check at the starting point to ensure it was a fair race.

For these ten guys who've passed on in Spain because of the bull run this year.....I'm guessing all of them figured they had a ninety-nine percent chance of survival....otherwise, they wouldn't have been this stupid.  The problem is....when dealing with a 1,500 pound steer....you can't be sure of their view of the situation, and when he stops for a second and does a 180-degree turn....you might be standing there in a bit of shock that your bull run strategy didn't consider this possible change in the scenario.  Your wits?  Well, at that point, you are maxing out to one-thousand-percent of your wits.....trying to think of the reason why you did this stupid race and realizing you've got two seconds before this bull gores you.

Monday 17 August 2015

The Tunes Story

Some smart folks at Brunel University (west of London) did a study over medical operations, anxiety among patients, and music.  Oddly, they came to this conclusion....there's a better outcome to the operation procedure if you listen to some likable music before and after the surgery.

To achieve a decent survey, they've polled around seven thousand folks.  Course, they also interviewed the medical folks involved, and they (the medical folks) said.....they were agreeable with this, as long as it didn't interfere with their process or procedures.

There's a historical side to this story because roughly a hundred years ago.....the idea was put forward, and then discounted by the medical establishment.

What's this all mean?  Well....some other group will start to ask the question if the Bee Gee's tunes are better for pre-Op, or maybe some Willie Nelson, or some heavy metal tunes from the 1970s.  Naturally, this will take into account people are different and what might work work with one guy.....won't work with the next guy.

This could trigger hospitals to hire up amateur DJ's who'd sit down with Gus while he's preparing for surgery tomorrow, and ask for suggestions for the hour before surgery and the hour after surgery.  Gus will sit there for a while and remark that he's a harmonica guy for the pre-Op, and then he'd like some Scottish fiddle music for the hour after the procedure.  The DJ will sit there, then admit he's got mostly pop stuff from the 1990s, eight-eight tunes from Johnny Cash, and four-hundred classical or opera tunes.

Eventually, as research episodes continue on and twenty years into the future.....we will come to discover that people will select Johnny Cash's Ring of Fire have a 99-percent chance of survival after an operation, for some unexplained reason.  The science guys will shake their heads.....it just can't be that simple.

Saturday 15 August 2015

The Bartender Story

I noted this week that the MIT guys have been busy.  These are the 'rocket-scientists' of America.  They think of a problem, and solve it.  Well....they finally built a bartender-robot.

I'm not sure of the priority of such a requirement, or if the pub-owners of America hinted that it might be more cost effective.....but they sat down and designed the first version of the bartender-robot.

The guys who designed the bartender-robot admit that there are limits to this.  For example.....if someone drops a drink on the floor.....this robot doesn't have the ability to solve the problem or clean up the mess....at least not yet.

I'm guessing a couple of Japanese robot designers will look over this bit of news....spend three years in an enclosed lab and emerge with a robot who does all the drink business, and cleans up the dropped drink.

I noted that they didn't really give the drink robot a typical bartender name....like "Ernie" or "Mandy" or "Monty".  This is one of the key things about a bartender.....there's an established relationship between bartender and the customer.

Bartenders serve this odd position in life.....providing consultation, judgement, recommendations and tips.

A guy screws up on a relationship, and within hours....he'll be at the bar to ask for advice.  A gal makes a big mistake at the office, and within hours.....she'll be at the bar to seek guidance.  A guy will lose big-time at a poker game and within hours.....he's at the bar to get an opinion on how to explain this significant loss to the wife.

How will the robot fit into this scheme?  I'm not sure.  Maybe they can eventually program "Elvis 2.0" to stand there while serving a drink, and note the three big rules of a failed relationship, or rattle off the five best TV shows of the 1970s, or discuss rocket-science issues over dishwashers.  Maybe you could tie this robot into Goggle and he'd just answer question after question.  Maybe at some point, after the third or fourth drink....."Elvis 2.0" would ask you for a blood sample to ensure you aren't drunk and he'd test you right there at the stool.

We are probably safe for another decade or so before this sort of stuff gets out of control and suddenly they show up in big-name bars in Seattle or Portland.  It'll be another thirty years before they start to show up in the heartland and small towns.  

Tuesday 4 August 2015

Dead Lions Talk

Not that I care that much for the Cecil the Lion (the old lion that whacked by the American dentist)....but I noted today that some gal who claims to be a seance-expert.....that she was able to communicate with dead Cecil (the lion).

She wanted to let folks know that Cecil is doing ok in the afterlife.....urging folks to be strong and speak up for those who suffer. Bring some light and some love....to life.  That was the words from dead Cecil (the lion).

Dead lion communication?  Well....you see, this is all part of the whole gimmick.  If some people hyped up the first part of the story....why can't a second wave hype up more of the dead lion story with some communication episodes.

Maybe we could have a seance crew each week communicate with dead animals....like Lassie, Flicker, Ole Yella, Mister Ed, and Flipper the dolphin.

Are we finished with Cecil and his affairs yet?  No.

Sadly, I think there's still more to come.