Tuesday, 21 August 2018

David Hogg and the 22nd District

There's been a piece or two over the past two days about David Hogg (the Parkland High School kid who gets hyped up over gun-control), and he's now said that when he turns 25 years old, he'll run for Representative (one has to assume he means the 22nd district).

I sat and pondered this logic.

First, the district was designed for two decades to be a fairly safe GOP district.  That came to an end around before 2012's election (Allen West was pushed out of the district).  At that point, the Democrats held a fair lead in normal elections.  You can figure from the past three elections, there's a safe barrier of 10 to 15 points here for a Democrat to win.  So this ought to be kinda easy for Hogg to win....right?

Second.....well, 2020 is a Census year, and 2026 (the year after he'd turn 25 years old) would be the first election for Hogg to run.  You can pretty much bank on the fact that Florida (currently at 27 Representatives) is going to have a larger population and likely gain 2 more seats, which means....YES, a redistrict drawing.  They will have in 2022....two additional districts.  The odds of Parkland being modified into a plus-five point district for the GOP?  I would kinda suspect that it might go that direction.

Third, here's this one odd factor about the 22nd District....the Latinos control 22-percent of the population.  Blacks?  16-percent. 

It might be time for the GOP to go out and recruit some young Latino upstart (say age 25 to 35), and start talking over funding the guy and symbolizing the 22nd District as a 50-50 district for Latino votes for the GOP. 

Fourth, Hogg running on a purely anti-gun message?  It won't work.  One theme political campaigns typically fail. 

I don't really want to discourage from running, but five years into the future, and figuring this redistricting likely to happen.....the odds are against him and his political dreams right now.