Wednesday, 7 November 2018

The Big Question

What if the Democrats go and make the entire period of 2019 and 2020....on some massive Trump investigation period, with zero 'other' accomplishments?

Two whole years, with soap-opera-like theatrics....CNN, Fox, and the networks hyped on the 'story'....and absolutely nothing done beyond that?

It's an interesting question to sit and speculate upon, with the odds now that the House will have just enough seats for the Democrats to control the message.

I anticipate three things out of this period:

1.  A massive shutdown of the government will occur over budget talks in 2019, and this shutdown will likely go beyond 90 days, with some federal workers in massive despair over their lack of a pay-check and a catastrophic 'doomed' landscape for politics in general.

2.  Another Supreme Court seat will come up to be filled, and we will get another round of Kavanaugh-like opera.  But this time, with a likely 56-seat situation for the might be less theatrics.

3.  A majority of Americans will be fed up with politics in general by 2020....fed up with television news....fed up with journalists....with open confrontation taking place.

If you thought the last two years were just a marginal TV political reality show.....get prepared, we are doubling up now.

The Non-Existent Swift Effect

There were probably a hundred odd political 'games' out of 2018, but the one that interested me a great deal....was the Tennessee Senate race (Blackburn - R, Bredesen -D).

About a month ago, all hell broke loose when pop singer Taylor Swift stood up and did a big social media call support Bredesen.  At the time, everyone was hyped up....all chatty...that this one single endorsement would figure into the 18-year old voter group, and bring tens of thousands of votes over to Phil Bredesen. the smoked has's an eleven point margin for Blackburn.

The Swift-effect?  There is virtually no indication of an effect.  I think if the PhD guys sat and did a survey over it....there were probably about a thousand 'kids' who stood up and said Swift helped to settle their mind over the election.

So this brings me to the real discussion.  If so-and-so actor or singer comes up to chat over some candidate....does it really matter?  Thirty years ago, I would have said it's absolutely zero on the scale.  Today?  I would suggest it might have moved up from zero to maybe one or two percent chance. 

Now, if this was a catchy comment....made by Clint might be remembered and thought about.  But this is like you asking your Waffle House pancake guy what he thought, or the exotic dancer at the Tin Star bar, or the Piggly Wiggly cashier....what they thought about election choices.  It just doesn't happen that way in the real world, unless you accept advice left and right...from strangers on the street.

Why did we listen to the journalists hyping this a month ago?  That's the thing about this.  Thirty years would have dismissed the Taylor Swift comment in sixty seconds flat.  Somehow, it now dwells on our mind and and we seriously think that Swift might flip 100,000 votes. 

Scientists ought to study this Swift effect and talk about how you get nothing, out of nothing.