Thursday, 11 July 2019

The Mitch Exit in 2021

Later this year, the Kentucky general election will be held, and Matt Bevin (current GOP governor of the state) will likely be re-elected.  His term will start in December. 

Right now....Bevin is given a six to eight point lead over the Democratic contender. 

I anticipate that Mitch will go and run a strong race in the summer of 2020, and likely win his race by a minimum of ten points. 

He'll (Mitch) will swear in and quietly go about his work in the spring of 2021, and around October/November...he'll give notice of retirement in January of 2022.  The governor of Kentucky will then select himself (being GOP)....and the state law says that only when the next general election comes up, will the position be voted upon.  So Bevin would have 3 years before that event occurs....giving himself enough time to build up accomplishments and 'charm'.

The question then comes up.....who replaces Mitch as GOP head in the Senate?

So I'm suggesting three names:

1.  Tim Scott (the GOP might think that bringing a soft-spoken black to the job would gain them points).  Scott would lack years in the Senate, but bring a different charm to the job.

2.  Mike Lee from Utah.  He has character to fill the shoes.

3.  Rob Portman from Ohio.  Generally liked by most all Republican Senators. 

The end of Mitch?  No.....I suspect that he's got a ton of campaign and PAC money sitting there and intends to be a major part of the 2022 election.  There's probably three or four Democratic Senators are anticipating him influencing their race, and putting them in a world of hurt before he empties out his pot of money. 

The Five Likely Election Topics That Will Harm A Democratic Candidate

I've pondered upon this for several weeks and come to this conclusion....the Trump campaign will likely attach itself to five central themes, and really put any of the Democrats coming out of the convention in a rough spot:

1.  The Census and the citizenship question

2.  Immigration reform and the wall

3.  Socialism versus capitalism

4.  Fake news and social media manipulation

5. The massive cost of all the 'promises' made so far

All five would harm the election campaign for candidates like Biden or Warren.  I read yesterday that roughly 60-percent of all Latinos in America, and blacks....each group measured....support the Census citizenship question being asked.  That's bad news for the Democrats if true.

Could Trump hold back the Census until after the election?  Yes.  In effect, he could agree to only start it in December....forcing a public discussion of the matter. 

It's a curious thing how this developed, and how the Democrats are limited in addressing each of these problems. 

This Epstein Business

After several days of watching this hyped-up Epstein business go on, and the list growing of VIPs and businessmen who came to the 'isle'....I've come to one central question being avoided by the journalists....who sponsors or runs Epstein? 

I don't think he's the top dog to this whole isle-visitation, lusty-gal, and secret information business.  He runs the isle....no doubt.  But I suspect this goes one step above him....with either some government or some syndicate using the inside influence or information for other purposes.  Chinese?  KGB?  Saudis?  Israel?  French billionaires? 

A lot of things seem to be intentionally left out of this story, and virtually no investigative journalism going on.  There's some boss or group above Epstein, and more to this story.