1. New Mexico. Clinton won NM mostly in 2016 because of the Libertarian candidate (Johnson)....carrying 9.3-percent of the vote in the state. Johnson won't be around in 2020, and I doubt if the libertarian candidate can get more than 3-percent of the vote.
If you count those votes returning to Trump, then toss in police disenchanted folks (active and retired)....it probably will be a narrow race where 3k votes might separate Trump and Biden. Toss in the factor as well....McMuffin....is also not in this race, so there's another 5k votes which you can't really identify who might get them.
My best guess is that Trump marginally will win because of this Libertarian situation. Latinos for Trump here? It might actually matter. Probably a 3-point difference between Trump and Biden in this situation.
2. Colorado. Clinton won Col by 130k votes. The Libertarian situation in 2016? 144k. So I'm forecasting that fewer than 35k Libertarian votes will occur in 2020, and that 100k votes easily side with Trump on this election. Again, you toss in the police de-fund situation, with active and retired folks....there's probably another 50k votes across the state which will side with Trump on this occasion.
My best guess is that Trump will marginally take Colorado....maybe by 50k to 80k votes.
3. Minnesota. McMuffin took 53k votes in 2016, and those votes have to go elsewhere in 2020. Same story with the Libertarian effort in 2016 (112k vote). Toss in the de-fund the police anger, police votes, and those affected by the looting and riots.
My best guess is that Trump edges upward from his 2016 count (1.32-million) to around 1.5 million....more than enough to easily win the state. It might be a six-point win for Trump here.
4. California. McMuffin and Libertarians took around 510k votes in 2016. I'd carve off 300k of these votes and give them to Trump in 2020. I'd also be generous and say say that 500k votes for Hillary Clinton in 2016....will flip (mostly because of the riots, looting, negativity existing in SF). Toss in a higher black/Latino vote as well for Trump.
My best guess is that Trump will take near 6-million votes....way better than 2016, but not enough to win. Joe Biden wins, but it's a shaky win in several areas (especially around LA). Having Harris on the ballot in California probably doesn't help much.
5. Finally.....Michigan. Trump marginally won in 2016. If you toss out McMuffin, and half the Libertarian votes....toss in the defund-the-police chatter, looting and rioting.....added black votes this time around....there's probably an added 350k votes this time around to whatever Trump had four years ago.
My best guess is that Trump carries a 8-point lead over Joe Biden to the end. Trump-win easily.
