I'll make three observations here.
First, in California....it just seems like that three-quarters of the state is pretty much finished over Newsom.....as governor, and it makes it hard to see how he'd sell himself as a Presidential candidate.
I noticed last week....some podcast where the moderator talked to a dozen Compton, California blacks....who were ALL fairly negative. I think the general black population has a chance to review the situation....most all will be anti-Newsom and thus gear the state for a Trump-win.
Second, Newsom has an odd history....constant travel. Someone remarked last year....that a data collection was mounted over the previous 365 days of Newsom as Governor, and he was on the road around 250-plus days out of 365. They compared this to his period as mayor of SF....finding basically the same story....he's on the road a great deal of time.
Third, his push of the $20-an-hour for employees of burger-joints has dissolved 10,000 jobs in California this year (2024). Imagine him at work in DC...getting a chance to repeat the strategy.