In the end (probably the middle of next week)....I'll say near 250,000-plus are burned-out. Most of them will have fire-insurance, but I'd take a fair guess (based on news accounts)....that 10-percent didn't have fire insurance.
So problem number one....while you might have insurance and be told in two to three months....a check will come....you get some negative feelings about rebuilding/staying in California.
Then the issue of getting insurance money and rebuilding. You ask a expert on it, and he indicates that if want a building permit....under normal conditions....it'd be 18-to-36 months before approval comes. Then he says....with this mass mess......it might be 8-to-10 years now. So you review options.....and by August....exit California. My guess? From the ultra-wealthy.....roughly 90-percent leave. From the middle-class....50-percent leave.
Affect on the 2030 Census? 200,000 fewer people in the region.
People just dumping the empty lot onto the state, and refusing to pay property taxes? I'd say by June....that's a major problem, and the state admitting that property tax income is a serious loss.
Lawsuits? Some lawyers will band together and 100-billion lawsuits are engaged....with the city, county and state being accused of incompetence. Insurance coverage by the county and city? They will be given a warning that massive increases will occur if they lose this case. Property tax increases in 2026? I'd go and suggest two to three times in terms of a increase will occur, with even more people leaving.
