Saturday, 3 November 2018

The Effect of a March

Back in 2013, for a period of about six weeks, I went to walking ten to twelve miles a day (five days a week)....mostly on a trail-program here in Germany.  Yes, there were a few hills built into this ritual daily walk. 

By the end, I came to three conclusions: (1) I had lost around two full inches on my gut and probably 15 pounds (never starving but avoid fatty food in this period). (2) This quiet hike gave you plenty of time to think and ponder....dropping your blood pressure as part of the deal.  And (3) came to grasp the intense nature of walking this twelve mile hike (taking three hours) and how a longer hike would have burned you out after a week. 

So I turn and observe this caravan crowd coming out of Honduras, and heading through Mexico to the US border.

Folks come to discuss the crowd but rarely touch on the requirement of each day.

Calorie-wise, you need a minimum of 4,500 calories if you were going to hike 25 to 30 miles a day.  Water-wise, you need roughly 32 ounces every two hours, so for a 12-hour piece of this caravan.....if you were would need around 200 ounces of water (around 1.5 gallons) to survive.  Seven days straight?  Roughly ten gallons of water minimum. 

I noticed this week that the Mexican cops pulled over some trucks carrying 'marchers', and have hindered buses from carrying the 'marchers' effect....making them carry out their objective of hiking a thousand miles.  So this in effect caused some reporters to note in the past five days....folks have stopped marching (maybe 10 to 20 percent of the original group).  My humble guess is that if the cops keep the buses and trucks are forced to quit hauling 'marchers'....that by next weekend, about half of the group will have stopped.

I would challenge anyone to go and pick up on the habit of walking ten miles a day and do it day after day....putting up twenty days in a month.  You do build up stamina and it's great exercise but it also drains you and eats up on calories.  A 160 pound guy on this go-to-America march?  My guess is that in the heat and flat walk....he'll lose at least 20 pounds minimum.  Dragging kids along on this march?  A 80 pound 12-year old kid will probably lose 10 pounds minimum. 

My hikes today?  I'll do a 3 to 5 mile hike once or twice a week, and maybe twice a year go up to the sixteen mile situation.  Hiking from Honduras to Texas?  I'd probably pass on that idea.

The Potential Obama Impact?

Here on Wednesday of next week, a great deal of drama will unfold as the analysts sit and pick over the results of the 2018 campaign period.  One question laying there.....did the campaign effort of former President Obama help or hinder Democrats?

I've viewed three of these campaign stop speeches by former President Obama over the past month, and noted that the camera angles selected.....marginalize the counting of people at the rally.  It might be five-thousand folks showing might be 500 people showing up.  You just can't say.

If there are no real gains in the House for Democrats (I'm suggesting perhaps five to ten seats flipping over to the Democrats at best)....then was the act of bringing in former President Obama a mistake?  I don't think so.  There are certain particular areas that I would label as Obama-impact 'zones'.  Across all fifty states?  No.  But I would suggest that there are probably twenty small urban zones in the US where some speech by President Obama might persuade another 10,000 voters in some region to show up (when they weren't interested), and vote Democrat.

But if we get to Wednesday and find zero seats gained?  It'll be hard for the Democrats to talk over future use of former President Obama.